Nashville Predators v St Louis Blues: The bold play at Bridgestone Arena

The Nashville Predators host the St Louis Blues at Bridgestone Arena on Sunday, 18 October at 11:00 am AEDT in a Western Conference clash between two sides searching for answers. Nashville sit 23rd overall with a 2-2-2 record (six points from six games), while St Louis arrive ranked 19th on 3-2-1 (seven points). Both clubs are coming off Friday defeats — the Predators fell 2–3 to San Jose at home, the Blues dropped a 4–5 decision in Minnesota — and neither defence has covered itself in glory early in the season.

The head-to-head market has this dead even at 1.90 apiece, a reflection of two teams treading water rather than surging. The puck line and totals tell a different story, though, and that's where the value sits for the bold caller willing to look past the middling win odds.

Who wins at Bridgestone?

Nashville's 2-2-2 ledger flatters a side averaging just 2.67 goals per game and leaking three per outing. The Predators have dropped three of their last five overall, scoring exactly two goals in each of those defeats — against Ottawa (2–3 away on 11 October), Vegas (2–5 at home on 14 October), and San Jose (2–3 at home on 16 October). Their lone win in that stretch came 5–2 away to Montreal on 9 October, but since that result they've slipped back into a cycle of narrow losses and anaemic offence.

Steven Stamkos leads the scoring with three goals and four assists, Roman Josi has contributed one goal and five helpers, and Ryan O'Reilly has two goals and three assists, but the secondary production has dried up. The Predators' power play sits at 27.27 per cent (respectable), yet their penalty kill at 84.21 per cent and save percentage of 89.7 per cent leave too many cracks for opponents to exploit. At home this season Nashville have played just twice — both losses by a combined 4–8 margin.

St Louis carry the slightly better record at 3-2-1 and boast the superior offensive output: 3.5 goals per game to Nashville's 2.67. The Blues have won two of their last five, including a 7–2 thrashing of Ottawa away on 14 October and a 5–3 home victory over Columbus on 11 October. Those two wins sandwich three one-goal defeats (2–4 to Chicago, 2–3 to San Jose, 4–5 to Minnesota), the last of which came on Friday. Mason McTavish paces the Blues with four goals and three assists, Connor McMichael has two goals and four assists, and Pius Suter has chipped in three goals and two assists.

St Louis control 53.2 per cent of shot attempts at five-on-five (Corsi), well ahead of Nashville's 43.6 per cent, and their 89.47 per cent penalty kill edges the Predators' 84.21 per cent. The power play is the weaker link at 14.29 per cent, but the Blues' ability to tilt the ice in their favour and generate chances gives them the edge in a match-up of two struggling defences. The 1.90 on either side reflects uncertainty rather than conviction, and we're leaning toward St Louis to find a way in a tight one.

Puck line: backing the Blues to cover the 1.5-goal spread

The puck line has Nashville laying 1.5 goals at 3.00, while St Louis get a 1.5-goal start at 1.35. Given Nashville's home form — two games, two losses by margins of one and three — and St Louis's recent wins by margins of five (7–2 v Ottawa) and two (5–3 v Columbus), the value here sits squarely with the Blues getting the cushion.

Nashville's average win margin over their last five games is three goals, but that figure is propped up by a single 5–2 result against Montreal; their four losses in that span have come by an average of 1.5 goals, three of them by exactly one. St Louis's average loss margin is just 1.3 goals, meaning even their defeats have been tight, while their two wins in the sample came by 3.5 goals on average. The Predators have shown no capacity to blow teams out at home this season, and the Blues' possession metrics and superior goal differential suggest they'll keep this within a goal either way. We're taking St Louis +1.5 goals at 1.35 as the bold play.

Total goals: the case for overs in a leaky affair

The total sits at 5.5 goals, with overs priced at 1.70 and unders at 2.10. Both sides are conceding three goals per game, neither goaltending unit has inspired confidence (Nashville 89.7 per cent save percentage, St Louis 88.0 per cent), and the offensive firepower — particularly from St Louis — points to a track meet rather than a defensive stalemate.

Nashville have averaged 3.0 goals for and 3.6 against over their last five games; St Louis have posted 4.0 for and 3.4 against in the same sample. Combined, that's a 6.4-goal average per Nashville game and a 7.4-goal average per St Louis contest. The Blues' recent outings have featured goal totals of nine (4–5 loss to Minnesota), nine again (7–2 win over Ottawa), and eight (5–3 win over Columbus). Nashville's games have been lower-scoring, but the Predators' defensive frailties and St Louis's ability to push the tempo suggest this one clears 5.5. Among our nhl predictions, overs at 1.70 represents the sharpest angle in a match-up where neither blue line will hold firm.