Shortest win price
Breukelen (5)
2.25
Armidale plays host to a competitive clash on a Good 4 surface with fine weather overhead for this 1100m Benchmark 66 handicap, timed to jump at 3:40 pm AEDT. Looking at the early win market order, Breukelen leads the betting as the shortest-priced runner, followed by The Lupercal, Soobooco, and Denial rounding out the top four in the market sequence. The bold play here is to lean into the value where the market might be slightly misaligned with historical preparations and track form, giving punters an interesting puzzle to unpack across the afternoon card.
The market leader Breukelen returns here for a second campaign after a 32-week spell, carrying 58.5kg from barrier 8 for trainer Melanie O'Gorman and jockey Mikayla Weir. This runner showed plenty of promise in its first preparation, capped off with a confidence-boosting win right here at Armidale over 1300m, and tuned up nicely with a recent trial placing at Tamworth. Meanwhile, Denial lines up from barrier 7 for Paul Snowden and Ben Looker, dropping back in trip after making some headway without troubling the winner over 1300m at Taree last time out. Denial's form suggests that a shorter trip could suit with even luck in running, especially with Ben Looker jumping aboard.
Further down the speed maps and market order, we see runners like The Lupercal drawn in barrier 3 with Zac Wadick taking the ride for D B Campbell, coming off a reasonable effort when fourth over this exact 1100m journey in soft going at Port Macquarie. Soobooco holds down a prominent spot in the betting from barrier 2 for trainer T G Payne, though it will need to improve on a battling effort at Moree over 950m earlier in the preparation. With speed maps indicating The Lupercal and To Be Frank pressing forward as leaders, while Breukelen and Denial settle midfield, the race sets up nicely for an on-pace or tracking runner to pinch a break on the turn. The value certainly sits with those who have demonstrated prior course capability and fitness from recent racing.
Shortest win price
Breukelen (5)
2.25
Most career wins
Soobooco and To Be Frank
5 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Denial · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Enniroc · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Soobooco · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 6% lower than Career Avg.
Breukelen · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Career
15: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 1-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 1-0-0
Track Taree
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1004m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1020m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-0-0
Going Soft
8: 0-2-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 20% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Ben Looker 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 6kg weight here
AAP
Made some headway without troubling at Taree. Drops to shorter trip. Capable of making an impact with even luck.
ILB
Jumped at $9.00 and hit the line well when 5th last run at Taree and matched against less formidable competition. Ben Looker is in form for this stable. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Finished fifth but wasn't beaten too far (3½l, Taree) last month upped to 6½f; not always shown an awful lot since winning a handicap at Gundagai in January; others more likely.
RSIS
At 8/1 ran past a few when 5th last time at Taree and facing a weaker group of contenders. Ben Looker and Paul Snowden are a formidable team. Could feature here.
Career
22: 4-3-4
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 2-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-2-0
Track Grafton
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1030m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1115m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 3-1-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Let-up (75-days). On a tight rein and mowed them down late in Hcp (C3) at Tamworth. Solid efforts here. Tougher ask here but stays on the radar.
ILB
First run back from a break. Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last run at Tamworth and has drawn the rails. Demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Gets a chance against these.
RP
Scored by a slim margin in a handicap at Tamworth in August; hard to ignore.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Finished well when winning last time at Tamworth and can save some energy from the draw. Getting better in recent performances. Very capable of taking this out.
Career
48: 5-10-1
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
8: 1-3-1
Second-up
7: 0-2-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
6: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
4: 1-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 1-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
5: 1-2-0
Going Good
24: 2-5-1
Going Heavy
5: 2-0-0
Going Soft
18: 1-5-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 6% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
AAP
Sent out $13 when unable to threaten at Moree. Well into preparation now, has some claims.
ILB
Started $13.00 and chased well when 5th last start at Moree and has a positive gate. The large claim from Jasmine Urquhart Warren should help. Watch the betting.
RP
A winner over C&D; beaten just over 5l in fifth over 4½f at Moree (handicap) last Friday; others are preferred.
RSIS
Was 12/1 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last run at Moree and gets a favourable stall. The large claim from Jasmine Urquhart Warren should help. Betting is the best guide.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced on a soft deck at Port Macquarie off spell. Strips in better shape. Can show more here.
ILB
At $1.85 picked up some late ground when 5th last run at Port Macquarie.
RSIS
Started 5/6 and edged past some when finishing 5th last time at Port Macquarie.
Career
4: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Coonabarabran
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-1
Track Armidale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 2-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 27% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (32-weeks). Will have matured further and shown encouraging trial form. Showed promise throughout first preparation and finished with a confidence-boosting win at this track.
ILB
Back from a 32 week break. Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last start at the track and putting a tidy record together. Competitive type.
RP
On a hat-trick after last win and has made a pleasing start to his career with two wins from three starts; landed a narrow success in a handicap in March; returns from a break here; in with a big shout.
RSIS
First run back from a break of 32 weeks. Charged home to win last start at this track and showing consistent performance in races. Has to be in the finish.
Career
40: 4-7-8
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Armidale
4: 0-1-1
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-1-1
Track Grafton
7: 0-1-2
Distance 1030m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1050m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1170m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
21: 4-5-3
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
12: 0-1-4
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Latest attempt this journey when reasonable effort without seriously threatening in soft going at Port Macquarie. Fit from racing, can make his presence felt.
ILB
Jumped at $14.00 and moved ahead of some to finish 4th last run at Port Macquarie. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Minor claims.
RP
Respectable effort in defeat (beaten 2½l, Port Macquarie) last month; knocking at the door recently; he can be competitive at this level.
RSIS
At 13/1 overtook some late when 4th last run at Port Macquarie. Shows good early pace.
Career
37: 5-1-2
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Wellington
1: 0-0-0
Track Coonamble
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
14: 3-0-1
Distance 1440m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 1-0-1
Going Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
19: 2-1-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 53% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jenny Duggan 65% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 55%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jenny Duggan in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 65%
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 4%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
On pace but found little at the business end at Coonabarabran over longer test. Coming back in distance. A few runs under his belt this campaign, has some claims.
ILB
Started $6.00 and came in 5th last time at Coonabarabran and back in trip. Has shown early pace in races to date. Do not dismiss entirely.
RP
Finished fifth, beaten just over 5l, over 7f at Coonabarabran (handicap) last month; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Odds of 5/1 and finished 5th last run at Coonabarabran and will be facing a significant drop in distance. Will be positive in the run early.
Career
45: 3-4-8
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
7: 1-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
7: 1-0-2
Track Ballina
2: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
16: 1-1-4
Going Heavy
6: 1-2-0
Going Soft
21: 1-0-4
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 54% Profit on Turnover
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Backing up quickly. Not disgraced on a soft deck at Tamworth. Not fancied.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Jumped at $3.10 and finished 4th last run at Tamworth and up in class. Does take a while to get into stride. Hard to warm to.
RP
Suited by this C&D; not a frequent winner; finished fourth but only beaten 2l over 5f at Tamworth (handicap) on Tuesday.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 11/5 and ran 4th last start at Tamworth and up against stronger opponents. Gets back and needs luck. Gets a reduction in weight.
Career
26: 4-2-1
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
4: 2-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 2-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Distance 950m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
9: 2-0-0
Distance 1005m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
8: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 89%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Track And Dist
Positive
Excels at this track and trip
Form At Track
Positive
2 time winner here at Armidale
Struggling
Negative
Doesn’t look to be going well
AAP
Failed to threaten at Moree at wide odds. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Was $41.00 and performed below standard when 6th last start at Moree. Struggling this preparation with no placings from 6 attempts. Looking elsewhere.
RP
Close up behind Soobooco when sixth at Moree over 4½f (handicap) last week; a C&D winner; she meets the required standard ability wise; capable of making an impact.
RSIS
Started 40/1 and ordinary performance when 6th last start at Moree. Yet to fire of late.