Shortest win price
Denver Bronco (1)
2.65
Gatton hosts a maiden handicap over 1400 metres on Good 4 going at 4:00 pm AEDT. Denver Bronco heads the win market from Ellofaby, with Koban and Trusty Felina next in line. This is a competitive maiden field where several runners carry decent form credentials, though none has broken through to a win. The track will suit runners who can find clear air in the run home, and the pace shape matters. Rose Of Chantilly will lead from barrier 7, while Koban profiles as the early-speed runner from barrier 5. That early tempo will be crucial for how the back-markers are positioned in the closing stages.
Denver Bronco and Ellofaby sit shortest in the market, and both carry form worth respecting. Denver Bronco, ridden by Danny Peisley and trained by P L Shailer, brings a jockey performing 16 per cent above his career average and a stable outperforming the market by 38 per cent. His debut at Gold Coast was soft as a drifter, finishing sixth, then he ran a close second in a barrier trial. The form suggests he's learning quickly and the market is onto him. Ellofaby, trained by Taryn Churchill with Tiffani Brooker up, is the highest-rated runner at 100 (IRD) and has been placed twice at this track and distance across recent runs. The jockey-trainer combo is performing 186 per cent above market expectations, a rare plus for this field. A narrow miss at Kilcoy and a strong close here in soft going last time point to a runner ready to convert.
The view here leans to Ellofaby as the value call at the current price. She's rated highest, proven over track and distance, and carries a hot combo that's delivering results. Denver Bronco has the form trajectory and the riding edge, but Ellofaby's placed record over exactly this course and distance, combined with jockey-trainer form, makes her the opinion. Stolen Stock, further down the market, pairs a jockey 36 per cent above his average with a combo performing 205 per cent above expectations—that's elite-level form data that shouldn't be ignored at the odds available.
Shortest win price
Denver Bronco (1)
2.65
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Denver Bronco · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Trusty Felina · Positive
Trainer ROI
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Cori Veru · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Koban · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 38%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
A very soft debut performance at Gold Coast as a market drifter 17 Oct.
ILB
Started at $16.00 and finished 6th last time at Gold Coast. Giving another go here and fitter for debut run. Solid claims.
RP
Beaten on his debut with blinkers fitted over 6f at Gold Coast at 14-1 last month; running in a handicap for just the second time and the stable continues to be among winners recently; he shouldn't be far away.
RSIS
Was 15/1 and finished 6th last time at Gold Coast. Can show a better performance this time and was on debut last time. Goes well and could be a value opportunity.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 39% in L100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Wasn't all that far from the action on debut this course as a market drifter 16 Oct.
ILB
Odds of $7.00 and ran 6th last start around here but was on debut last time. Brandon Lerena and William Kropp demand respect when they team up. Finishes off strongly. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Not beaten far on her debut (6-1) three weeks ago over C&D; if backing up initial run likely to be involved.
RSIS
Started at 6/1 and came in 6th last time at the track but having second career run. Brandon Lerena and William Kropp deserve serious attention as a team. Has some claims.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 31 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Debut effort fair in spread-out finish at Kilcoy at longer odds 6 Oct.
ILB
Kept chasing when 5th last run at Kilcoy and was a debutant last start.
RSIS
Improved late to finish 5th last time at Kilcoy and was a debutant last start.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fresh. Finished a long way from the action Mdn at Sunshine Coast.
ILB
Didn't attack the line when 8th last run at Sunshine Coast and dropping back to a shorter trip.
RSIS
Didn't threaten when 8th last run at Sunshine Coast and will be down in distance.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Key Rider
Positive
Kayla Barker 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
AAP
On a quick back-up. Started $71 when safely held in Maiden company at Moree over today's trip.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Was well beaten when 9th last start at Moree.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Was well beaten when 9th last start at Moree.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Failed to threaten at Warwick as an outsider. Switching to 1400m.
ILB
Odds of $81.00 and mediocre performance when 11th last time at Warwick. Likely to get back in the run. Need a lot of luck to be close to winning this.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 at Warwick over 7½f (handicap) last month; yet to get off the mark in four attempts (seventh her best finish); others appeal more.
RSIS
At 80/1 was ordinary when 11th last time at Warwick. Expected to settle towards the tail.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened. Failed to threaten at Ipswich at a mammoth price.
ILB
Couldn't stay in touch when 9th last time at Ipswich. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Gets a chance against these.
RP
Held in ninth in a maiden at Ipswich last month; strong claims as recent form is thin on the ground in this contest.
RSIS
Looked outclassed when 9th last start at Ipswich. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Capable of winning this.
Career
10: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilcoy
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Stacey Callow current POT is 13% below Career Avg.
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 3%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 34 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Freshened. Finished well down the track in Mdn Plate at Toowoomba last outing.
ILB
Odds of $15.00 and didn't find the line when 6th last time at Toowoomba and will be dropping in distance. Should muster plenty of early toe. Facing a difficult task today.
RP
Yet to open her account after ten starts; beaten a fair way when sixth upped to 1m3f last month at Toowoomba in a maiden; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
Was 14/1 and faded away to finish 6th last start at Toowoomba and will be facing a significant drop in distance. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Track Toowoomba
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
3: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Backing up quickly. Failed to threaten at Toowoomba at longer odds. Coming back in distance.
ILB
On a short back up. Was $26.00 and weakened under pressure when 7th last start at Toowoomba. Rough hope.
RP
Tailed off at Toowoomba on Saturday upped to 1m.
RSIS
On a short back up. Started 25/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last run at Toowoomba.
Career
16: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
99
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1350m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
6: 0-1-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-1-1
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 186%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 100% Profit on Turnover
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 3%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Just missed at Kilcoy 6 Oct. Trailed pace and kicked strongly in soft going this track over this distance.
ILB
Threw down a serious challenge last run around here and will try to take advantage of the draw. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.
RP
Had two of these rivals behind her last month when just denied in a maiden; seems to be improving based on last two runs but still winless and defeats stacking up (16 on the bounce); others are preferred.
RSIS
Just shy of the win last run at this track and has a positive draw. Has a good chance.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
AAP
Backing up quickly. Well back and never a factor at Moree over this distance.
ILB
On a quick back up. Was ordinary when 11th last run at Moree but dropping weight.
RSIS
On a quick back up. Not up to scratch when 11th last time at Moree but gets some weight relief.
Career
20: 0-2-5
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Warracknabeal
1: 0-0-0
Track Taroom
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
13: 0-1-3
Going Soft
4: 0-0-2
Going Unknown
3: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 31 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Fresh. Last, unleashed driving charge late at Kilcoy.
ILB
Ran on when 3rd last time at Kilcoy and form has been improving over recent runs. Gets some weight relief. Good chance in this.
RP
Close up behind Ellofaby when third in a maiden last month at Kilcoy upped to 7½f; improved form the last twice but winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 20; tends to find at least one too good; passed over.
RSIS
Strong effort to run into 3rd last start at Kilcoy and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Will appreciate the drop in weight. Expect a forward showing.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run
AAP
On a short back-up. Got the wobbles late after leading at Moree over this trip. Has early speed.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Didn't threaten when 7th last start at Moree but gets some weight taken off.
RSIS
Backing up quickly. Couldn't stay in touch when 7th last run at Moree but will benefit with the weight drop.
Career
10: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
3: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Career
14: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track Gatton
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1469m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
10: 0-2-1
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 36% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 205%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Aidan Keeley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 58%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Midfield, picked up solidly this course for new trainer.
ILB
Started $6.50 and showed some merit late when 4th last time around here and suited by the weight drop. Aidan Keeley and Philip Minter work well together. Good chance and definitely has claims.
RP
He meets the required standard ability wise; creditable fourth in a maiden splitting Ellofaby and Trusty Felina when dropped down to this distance on debut for new trainer last month.
RSIS
Started at 11/2 and kept chasing when 4th last start around here and dropping weight. Jockey Aidan Keeley and trainer Philip Minter are usually competitive when they team up. Very capable of taking this out.
Career
13: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-0-0
Track Sunshine Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Wagga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1430m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4.5kg from LS run
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Gold Coast Poly over longer test. Switching to 1400m.
ILB
Was $101.00 and gave away some ground when 7th last run at Gold Coast Poly and down in trip. Hasn't broken through maiden grade after 13 runs. Priced to finish behind most.
RP
Has proven competitive in a race of this nature; finished last of seven in a maiden at Gold Coast two weeks ago upped to 1m1½f.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and didn't attack the line when 7th last run at Gold Coast Poly and dropping back to a shorter trip. Yet to break through after 13 starts.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Limited
Negative
Yet to break through after 23 starts
AAP
Failed to threaten on a soft deck this track after lengthy absence as a despised outsider.
ILB
Weakened to finish 11th last run around here.
RSIS
Gave away some ground when 11th last run at this venue.