Mornington (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 2:45 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Mornington (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Tue 10 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Tue, 10 NovMornington (VIC)Change

Race 5 — Sportsbet Feed (Bm56) 2025m · jumps Tue 10 Nov, 3:30 pm AEDT

Race preview

Mornington's 3:30 pm AEDT race is a Benchmark 56 over 2025 metres on Good 4 going under overcast skies. The win market runs with Up And Under shortest, followed by Nightowl, Nicoffhome, and Crown Of Russia. This is a tight affair where positioning and freshness will matter more than raw class. Up And Under draws barrier 1 and sits on-pace, which suits this track. Nightowl rates highest at 89 (IRD) and holds the form edge after nabbing a win at Yarra Valley in soft going two starts back, wearing them down late with the quickest finishing sectionals last time. Nicoffhome, rated 89, just missed at Mornington 17 September over 2050m but has had four weeks to recover, though the comment flags he knocked up badly at Morphettville most recently. Crown Of Russia, rated 91, has a poor recent strike-rate and the AAP report suggests the camp is struggling; the comment reads Down on form and leaning towards others here.

Nicoffhome leads early with Jockey Nadia Daniels outperforming her career average by 48 per cent in her last 100 rides, a genuine edge, but trainer Chris Calthorpe carries a 2 per cent career strike-rate. The form shows two starts on-pace with a win and a near-miss, yet both runs preceded much softer outcomes. Nightowl and Frank Express sit in the offmidfield group; Nightowl has Brad Rawiller aboard, who also outperforms career average by 41 per cent, and the Yarra Valley win is genuine form over a similar trip. Frank Express and Rawiller's combination is outperforming market expectations by 516 per cent, a red flag that this pairing delivers outsized value when sent out at a price. Up And Under, rated 89 and fresh from a narrow second at Yarra Valley, pairs with Bailey Kinninmont and trainer D M Noonan, a combination winning 33 per cent of their races in the last 100 and mapping well here from barrier 1. The Kings Gospel and Hard To Go Wrong are backmarkers and face headwinds from barriers 2 and 3 respectively.

The on-pace group clusters with Just Dance, Hollandia, Up And Under, and Tassadar all fighting for position. Tassadar's sectionals suggest hard early running, which could light up the tempo and open the back end for finishers like Nightowl and Frank Express. Up And Under's map position is suited and represents the market's shortest price; the case holds if early speed collapses, but Nicoffhome's leader tag and Tassadar's early pace threaten to pile on pressure. Nightowl's Yarra Valley win in soft ground over 1968m translates to this race better than Up And Under's recent wet-track form. The value argument favours Frank Express—a fast finisher with a combination running at 516 per cent market expectation, paired with winning form at two of the last three starts and capable of threading through from midfield in the final furlong.

Race notes

3UP BM56 HCP,3yo+,BM56,Benchmark 56
GOOD4
Overcast
12 runners

Shortest win price

Up And Under (10)

3.50

Most career wins

The Kings Gospel

6-2-5 from 45 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

11The Kings Gospel
14Hard To Go Wrong

Offmidfield

3Frank Express
8Nightowl

Midfield

6Crown Of Russia
12Love Sparkles

Offpace

9Riozino

Onpace

4Just Dance
5Hollandia
10Up And Under
13Tassadar

Leader

2Nicoffhome

Nicoffhome · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 48% in Last 100 Rides
Frank Express · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Just Dance · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 50%
Hollandia · Negative
Trainer SR
John Moloney striking at just 6%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Mike's HopeScratched17––––

Career

8: 1-1-3

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1600m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1887m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-1-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Kyneton1887m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.21L
2Swan Hill1600m22 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.75L
9Bendigo1600m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56.3L
3Pakenham Synthetic1600m16 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SYNTHETIC0.5L
6Sandown1400m2 Aug 2026 · BM66 · SOFT75.2L
1Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
4Sandown1600m4 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.5L
3Cranbourne1400m10 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD43.7L

Comments

AAP

Worked on the speed and just missed in the 3yo+ (Bm62) at Kyneton. Stamina on trial here. Highly rated this class despite the weight.

ILB

Close to a win last time at Kyneton and matched against lesser competition. Putting up notable efforts since resuming from a spell.

Went close when third at Kyneton over 1m1½f (handicap) 21 days ago; has been consistent of late; can figure.

RSIS

Narrowly beaten last run at Kyneton and lining up against easier rivals. In fine form since returning from a break.

2NicoffhomeJ: Nadia Daniels·T: Chris Calthorpe1262kg7 6 2 2 1025: 3-5-2$4.80$1.90

Career

25: 3-5-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-2-0
Track Geelong
4: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2418m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 2-3-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
6: 1-2-0

Last starts

10Morphettville2028m10 Oct 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD311.07L
2Mornington2050m17 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.06L
2Warracknabeal2000m29 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.8L
6Geelong1730m14 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY88L
7Geelong1200m31 July 2026 · 2UP CG&E BM56 HCP · SOFT77.4L
7Warrnambool2350m9 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD49.3L
1Pakenham2500m12 Feb 2026 · BM62 · GOOD4-0.1
1Werribee2256m1 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD4-1.3

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 48% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Key Rider
Positive
Nadia Daniels 62% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 33%
Key Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels winning at 45% POT in last 100 rides
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

4 weeks since last run. Just missed at Mornington 17 Sep. On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Morphettville. Can put last run behind him.

ILB

Jumped at $10.00 and folded up in the straight when 10th last start at Morphettville but matched against a less competitive field. Has the speed to overcome the wide gate. Capable of winning this.

Track has proven suitable before; good and bad recent runs found on his CV; held when tenth beaten 11l at Morphettville 31 days ago; others more likely given this looks a decent race.

RSIS

Started 9/1 and lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Morphettville but going down in grade. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw. Should go close.

3Frank ExpressJ: Liana Wood·T: A Rosolini1061.5kg3 4 6 4 136: 5-2-2$13.00$3.60

Career

36: 5-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 2-0-0
Track Moe
4: 1-0-0
Track Mornington
5: 0-0-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
23: 4-2-0
Going Heavy
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 1-0-1

Last starts

1Moe2050m18 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-1
4Moe2400m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.15L
6Kilmore2000m13 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD44L
4Pakenham Synthetic2200m3 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC3.9L
3Pakenham Synthetic2200m20 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC2L
2Traralgon2400m2 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)0.1L
9Warrnambool2000m14 June 2026 · BM56 HWGT · HEAVY1010.7L
6Traralgon2800m5 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)12.3L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 516%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 5kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Broke a long run of outs when winning at Moe. Needs a repeat.

ILB

Ran on strongly to win last start at Moe and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Does take a while to get into stride. Tough race will need luck.

Came out on top by 1l at Moe back down to this distance last month; could be dangerous.

RSIS

Ran home strongly to win last start at Moe and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Likely to get back in the run.

4Just DanceJ: Jackie Beriman·T: I M Pankhurst561.5kg11 2 1 4 1120: 2-1-1$26.00$4.60

Career

20: 2-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1611m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2025m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0

Last starts

11Cranbourne2025m23 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD311.64L
4Bairnsdale2200m12 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT72.06L
1Bairnsdale2200m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD3-0.5
2Moe2069m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY80.8L
11Pakenham Synthetic2200m24 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM74 HCP · SYNTHETIC12.3L
9Moe2050m13 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY1014L
3Pakenham Synthetic2200m3 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC3.8L
6Murtoa2050m25 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT74.9L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 50%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 6.5kg now

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and never landed a blow at Cranbourne over this journey. Can show more here.

ILB

Odds of $151.00 and didn't attack the line when 11th last time at Cranbourne but competing at a lower grade. Has early speed and positions nicely. Others preferred.

Finished 11th of 12 (Cranbourne) two weeks ago; this is competitive and may have to settle for supporting role at best.

RSIS

At 150/1 struggled with the pace when 11th last time at Cranbourne but matched against lesser competition. Shows good early pace. Going up in weight.

5HollandiaJ: Holly Durnan·T: J F Moloney1161kg10 6 3 10 542: 4-2-10$13.00$3.60

Career

42: 4-2-10

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
6: 1-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
5: 0-0-2
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-2
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
3: 0-1-1
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1736m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
27: 3-2-7
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Bendigo2400m28 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.2L
10Cranbourne2580m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.75L
3Moe2400m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.75L
6Mornington2030m4 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT53.6L
10Geelong1730m14 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY811.7L
3Sandown3000m15 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.5L
4Pakenham2550m2 Apr 2026 · BM66 · GOOD41.4L
5Pakenham2500m19 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SOFT52.8L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
John Moloney striking at just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 24%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 7kg now

Comments

AAP

Long winless run. Off pace, made limited headway at Bendigo after speccing from $26 into $16. Perhaps a place.

ILB

Started $16.00 and ran 5th last start at Bendigo but challenged by less formidable competitors. The wide barrier shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Watch the betting.

Out of the frame (beaten just over 3l in fifth) over 1m4f at Bendigo (handicap) two weeks ago; form has an up and down look to it; others are preferred with this looking like a hot contest.

RSIS

At 15/1 ran 5th last start at Bendigo but up against a less challenging field. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall. Has more weight to carry. Watch the betting.

6Crown Of RussiaJ: Jordan Childs·T: D T O'Brien460.5kg13 2 7 7 713: 1-1-1$9.00$2.80

Career

13: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1459m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-1

Last starts

7Mornington2400m1 Nov 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.86L
7Kyneton1887m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.96L
7Kilmore2000m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD36.35L
2Tatura1600m7 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT70.4L
13Flemington2800m25 Apr 2026 · 3yo · GOOD336.1L
3Werribee2200m11 Apr 2026 · BM56 · SOFT51.1L
5Sale1717m29 Mar 2026 · BM62 · SOFT64.3L
8Kyneton1459m13 Mar 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · GOOD410.9L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 10%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Sent out $5.50 when unable to threaten this venue over longer assignment. Down on form and leaning towards others here.

ILB

Started at $5.50 and mediocre attempt when 7th last run here but stepping down to a lower level. Forward showing expected.

Not beaten that far nine days ago upped to 1m4f; been a while since he achieved his only career win and form has been a bit mixed lately; easy to oppose with a number of his rivals in good nick.

RSIS

Started at 9/2 and mediocre attempt when 7th last start at this track but facing weaker opposition. Strong prospects in this race.

7Wolves' DenScratched8––––

Career

8: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1700m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1717m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-2
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0

Last starts

12Cranbourne2580m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD311L
1Moe2400m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-3
3Moe2069m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY81.6L
8Sale1717m21 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT68.2L
2Geelong1700m31 July 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · SOFT70.5L
3Cranbourne1500m16 July 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY96.8L
5Cranbourne1400m21 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT75.3L
8Sandown1300m16 July 2025 · 2Y HCP · SOFT58.5L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 14% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 71%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Weight Rise
Negative
Carrying 4.5kg more than LS

Comments

AAP

Cleared maiden ranks at Moe 24 Sep. Made a rapid retreat back through the field at Cranbourne over longer assignment. On pacer. Look for a better showing in this class.

ILB

Faded away to finish 12th last time at Cranbourne but challenged by weaker competitors. Should muster plenty of early toe. Down in distance. Carrying more weight than last time.

Finished last of 12 over 1m5f at Cranbourne (handicap, behind Hollandia) three weeks ago; stepped up on his last two starts; trainer has been going through a quiet spell; a lot on his plate here and there are better alternatives here.

RSIS

Gave away some ground when 12th last time at Cranbourne but up against a less competitive field. Has early pace and positions nicely. Coming back in distance.

8NightowlJ: Brad Rawiller·T: Andrew Noblet960kg4 4 4 6 114: 1-5-0$4.60$1.90

Career

14: 1-5-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Gore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 2007m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
7: 1-3-0

Last starts

1Yarra Valley1968m24 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.5
6Geelong1765m7 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT511L
4Bendigo1600m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.75L
4Kilmore2007m31 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT62.8L
4Ballarat2000m10 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD31.2L
2Ballarat1600m22 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD43.5L
8Sandown1600m4 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.4L
2Tauherenikau1600m10 Dec 2025 · MDN · SOFT50.1L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Brad Rawiller 48% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 47%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Fav when wore them down late at Yarra Glen and capable of figuring again.

ILB

Strong effort to the line to win last time at Yarra Valley. Will be motoring home late. Must respect.

Best form so far in last two starts; lost his maiden tag over 1m2f at Yarra Glen (maiden) two weeks ago; despite that Yarra Glen success, one to tread carefully with.

RSIS

Charged home to win last start at Yarra Vstall. Has a great burst of pace late. Genuine claims.

9RiozinoJ: Nathan Punch·T: Brian Mcgrath760kg1 12 8 12 116: 1-0-0$101.00$14.00

Career

6: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Track Colac
1: 0-0-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

11Mornington1500m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.1L
12Echuca2100m11 May 2026 · 3UP BM56 HCP · SOFT538.35L
8Wodonga2050m20 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD311.7L
12Colac2000m6 Feb 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD412L
1Warrnambool2000m16 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.4
6Kilmore1610m29 Sept 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD36.1L
7Wangaratta1300m9 Sept 2025 · Barrier Trial9.4L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Brian McGrath striking at just 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 103%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Ridden back and never a factor this track for new trainer. Keener on others.

ILB

Odds of $151.00 and below standard effort when 11th last run at this track but going over more ground. Lines up against a competitive field.

Finished 11th of 12 over 7½f here (handicap) on debut outing for new trainer last month; respected if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.

RSIS

Odds of 150/1 and average at best when 11th last start here but racing over a longer distance.

10Up And UnderJ: Bailey Kinninmont·T: D M Noonan160kg8 7 6 4 239: 2-5-4$3.50$1.55

Career

39: 2-5-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
6: 0-1-1
Second-up
5: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Track Curragh
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
5: 0-0-1
Distance 2011m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2453m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
5: 0-2-1
Going Soft
14: 1-2-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Yarra Valley1968m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT50.75L
4Moe1600m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD31.26L
6Kilmore2000m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD36.15L
7Sale1732m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.5L
8Warrnambool2000m23 July 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY1013.4L
4Cranbourne1600m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY92.8L
10Pakenham Synthetic2200m15 June 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SYNTHETIC16.2L
7Sandown2100m31 May 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT710.7L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 33% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Mornington
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Couldn't quite peg back winner at Yarra Glen. Again one for exotics.

ILB

Was strong late when 2nd beaten by 3/4L last run at Yarra Valley and drawn the rails. Should come to hand quickly. The large claim from Dylan Dean should help. Definite winning chance.

Good effort when close up last month (Yarra Glen) upped to 1m2f; has won here before; been struggling to get his head in front recently so not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

Solid effort to run into 2nd last time at Yarra Vstall and has minimal work to do from the stall. Should jump out and bowl along. Large claim helps. Good chance in this.

11The Kings GospelJ: Damian Lane·T: A R Mcgregor259.5kg5 1 6 5 645: 6-2-5$12.00$3.40

Career

45: 6-2-5

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
7: 0-0-1
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
5: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
5: 1-0-1
Track Moonee Valley
2: 1-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 1-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1606m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1864m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
23: 3-0-3
Going Heavy
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
16: 2-2-2

Last starts

6Yarra Valley1514m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT54.77L
5Mornington2030m10 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT63.6L
6Moe2400m25 Apr 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD45.9L
1Hamilton2200m7 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY8-0.3
5Kyneton1864m28 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT52.3L
3Stony Creek2100m8 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT61.8L
6Stony Creek1600m15 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD48.3L
14Stawell2000m4 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD414.3L

Insights

Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Started $31 when safely held in Restricted 56 company at Yarra Glen off long spell. Fitter and second-up form generally better.

ILB

Started at $31.00 and finished 6th last time at Yarra Valley but going up in distance. Might have to make up considerable ground. Has a good draw. Needs a mighty effort to win this.

Has winning form at this track; he can be competitive at this level; out of the frame (beaten just under 5l in sixth) at Yarra Glen over 7½f (handicap) two weeks ago; capable if in the mood so by no means ruled out.

RSIS

At 30/1 finished 6th last time at Yarra Vstall but going up in trip. Likely to settle back in the field. Gets a favourable draw.

12Love SparklesJ: Dylan Dunn·T: Shawn Mathrick1359kg6 5 3 10 423: 2-1-2$14.00$3.70

Career

23: 2-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
2: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1860m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
4: 1-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-1-2

Last starts

4Kilmore2012m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT53.46L
10Echuca2100m19 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.79L
3Mildura1900m6 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.45L
5Moe1600m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.27L
6Mildura2008m5 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT66.2L
5Ballarat Synthetic2100m6 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · SYNTHETIC2.9L
5Pakenham Synthetic1600m29 June 2026 · BM70 · SYNTHETIC2.2L
1Pakenham Synthetic1600m15 June 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC-0.8

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 48% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 85%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Not disgraced at Kilmore at $21. Could add some value to exotics.

ILB

Crept into 4th last time at Kilmore and competing in a less challenging grade. Can win this.

Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Kilmore (beaten 3½l) 11 days ago; may have to settle for supporting role with a few rivals in good form.

RSIS

Made some ground when 4th last run at Kilmore and competing in a less challenging grade. Can win this.

13TassadarJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Aaron Laing659kg5 4 11 6 213: 1-1-0$23.00$4.40

Career

13: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Moe
4: 1-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
6: 0-1-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

2Moe1600m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD30.3L
6Tatura1450m29 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43L
11Echuca1412m19 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD45.03L
4Echuca1200m30 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT72.6L
5Stony Creek1600m8 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT64L
8Moe1600m22 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD46.1L
12Pakenham2000m12 Feb 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD415.4L
1Moe2050m25 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.2

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Looked likely but had a real fight on his hands and just missed at Moe. Has speed. Can again fill the minors here.

ILB

Right up there last start at Moe. Interesting gear change of winkers off first time. Won't be far away during the run. Not at all out of this race.

Had a number of these behind him over 1m at Moe (handicap) last month when not beaten far; been a while since he managed only win; makes limited appeal as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Threw down a serious challenge last run at Moe. Interesting to see the cheekpieces go off for the first time. Should race on the pace. Can't leave out of your calculations.

14Hard To Go WrongJ: Sheridan Clarke·T: Ms R Kelly359kg9 5 7 5 327: 3-3-4$26.00$4.60

Career

27: 3-3-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-1
Track Moruya
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
10: 2-1-1
Going Good
11: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-0-1
Going Soft
7: 1-2-2

Last starts

3Moruya1650m3 Nov 2026 · BM50 · SOFT53.4L
5Moe1600m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD32.51L
7Pakenham Synthetic1600m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC5.5L
5Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD32L
9Ballarat Synthetic2200m27 July 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC7.2L
8Seymour2040m19 July 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY910.6L
3Echuca2100m23 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY107L
5Sale1717m10 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY82.2L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 120%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 36%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up

Comments

AAP

On a quick back-up. Long time since last saluted. Gave a good sight making the frame at Moruya when fancied. Needs to lift again here.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Ran 3rd last time at Moruya and suited by the weight drop. Likely to get back in the run. Watch for a sign in the market.

Displayed a fair level of form when 3½l third over 1m at Moruya (handicap) a week ago.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Tidy effort when 3rd last time at Moruya and dropping weight. Might be ridden for luck. Watch betting.

15Mac KalhounScratched15––––

Career

15: 1-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2580m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
10: 1-1-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-1-0

Last starts

7Moe1600m18 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD33.37L
13Albury1600m16 June 2025 · BM58 HCP · HEAVY911.1L
2Wodonga1590m26 May 2025 · Barrier Trial3.5L
6Corowa900m7 May 2025 · Barrier Trial16.6L
4Moe2447m25 Apr 2024 · BenchMark 58 · SOFT74.5L
7Cranbourne2600m12 Apr 2024 · BenchMark 64 · SOFT55.35L
3Cranbourne2580m29 Mar 2024 · BenchMark 64 · GOOD33.25L
7Bendigo2200m14 Mar 2024 · BenchMark 58 · GOOD43L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 142%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 5% POT in L100 Runners
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Moe for new trainer. Looking elsewhere.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. Amongst the placegetters when 2nd last run at Balnarring. Large claim helps.

Beaten 6l into runner-up (this trip) at Balnarring on Saturday; a course winner.

RSIS

Backing up quickly. Tidy run when 2nd last run at Balnarring. The large claim from Bailey Kinninmont should help.

16Ginger SweetScratched11––––

Career

29: 1-11-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1618m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1717m
3: 0-3-0
Distance 2000m
8: 0-5-0
Going Soft
9: 1-1-1
Going Good
20: 0-10-2

Last starts

2St Arnaud2000m24 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32L
2Manangatang2000m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32L
2Moe1600m24 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.75L
6Echuca1600m30 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT77.2L
8Geelong1200m31 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT77.2L
9Bairnsdale1200m13 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT79.4L
9Stony Creek2100m8 Mar 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT69.5L
2Pakenham2000m26 Feb 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD41.3L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Jamie Melham current POT is 29% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Solidly
Positive
In peak form

Comments

AAP

Highly competitive lately in easier races. Solid rally into the placings at St Arnaud. Keep safe.

ILB

Did well to run 2nd beaten by 2L last start at St Arnaud.

Creditable effort to finish runner-up at St Arnaud last month; series of good efforts to her name.

RSIS

Made considerable ground when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at St Arnaud.

17I Could Do BetterScratched14––––

Career

73: 8-5-8

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
8: 3-0-0
Second-up
7: 1-1-1
Third-up
7: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
6: 0-0-0
Track Sale
3: 0-0-1
Track Benalla
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1414m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1825m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
35: 3-2-3
Going Heavy
13: 2-3-3
Going Soft
23: 3-0-2

Last starts

6St Arnaud2000m24 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.22L
11Hamilton2200m10 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT55.44L
4Kilmore2000m13 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD43.3L
4Casterton2000m30 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT52.9L
1Casterton2000m9 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT7-0.3
7Naracoorte2000m24 July 2026 · 0-56 · HEAVY89.4L
2Wangaratta2000m6 July 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY102L
2Wodonga2050m27 June 2026 · BM52 · HEAVY80.2L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -64% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 56%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Started $7.50 when safely held in Benchmark 52 company at St Arnaud. Capable but needs to turn it around quickly.

ILB

Backing up quickly for this race. Came in 3rd last time at Balnarring.

Well held third of nine at Balnarring (behind Mac Kalhoun) on Saturday.

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Placed 3rd last time at Balnarring.

Odds correct as at Tue 10 Nov, 3:30 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 1 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Thu 22 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Sat 26 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Thu 17 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 4 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races