Shortest win price
Tucklan (8)
3.10
The Narromine Usmc Mdn Plate over 1300m jumps on a Soft 7 surface under overcast skies at 2:55 pm AEDT. The win market order has Tucklan sitting at the head of affairs, closely followed by Ridgeback, Pathelia, and Knights Templar, with Spiritual Force and debutant Mega Missile rounding out the quotes in this maiden field. The bold play is to look past the market leader and find some value in a race where several runners have plenty of questions to answer regarding recent form and consistency.
Looking at the form behind the shorter prices, Tucklan leads the betting for Brett Robb with Clayton Gallagher in the saddle from barrier 2, coming off a fading effort when ninth over this 1300m trip at Dubbo on a Heavy 8. Despite giving ground last time out, Tucklan is well into the preparation and could show more here. Ridgeback lines up from barrier 5 for trainer Ms J Clement and jockey Gabrielle Johnston, who is outperforming her career average profit on turnover in recent rides. Ridgeback closed off late from the tail when fifth at Orange over 1400m and should be fit enough from racing to make a serious presence felt with even luck in this company. Pathelia returns from a twenty-five-week spell for trainer-jockey Kody Nestor, stepping back in distance after failing to make an impact over staying trips last campaign. Knights Templar rounds out the main chances from barrier 6 for M G Cooper and Zoe Hunt, having finished eighth at Orange over 1400m before dropping back to this slightly shorter journey.
Digging further into the race dynamics, speed maps indicate that Ridgeback is likely to find the front as the leader, while Tucklan operates off pace and Pathelia settles in the midfield. Knights Templar is expected to drift back as a backmarker, and Mega Missile makes its first career start from barrier 3. With the stable combination behind Tucklan showing some cold recent figures and Pathelia resuming from a lengthy break without setting the world on fire previously, the value sits with a runner like Ridgeback who has the fitness edge and a pilot in strong winning form.
Shortest win price
Tucklan (8)
3.10
Back left · leaders right
Firststart
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Knights Templar · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 13% lower than Career Avg.
Ridgeback · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Pathelia · Positive
Fast Early
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Spiritual Force · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-0-0
Track Narromine
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 13% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Got back, never a serious danger but not disgraced at Orange. Reverts to slightly shorter trip. Can challenge.
ILB
Was $51.00 and not in contention when 8th last start at Orange. Likely to get back in the run. Knockout chance.
RP
Finished last of eight when close behind Ridgeback last week (Orange) in a handicap; there is limited recent form on offer in this race so ought to be of interest.
RSIS
Was 50/1 and underwhelming when 8th last start at Orange. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
12: 0-3-3
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ipswich
2: 0-1-1
Track Sunshine Coast
4: 0-1-1
Track Dubbo
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1660m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-3-2
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Just missed at Wellington 15 Sep. Went home tamely at Dubbo at $11. Profiles well.
ILB
Started at $11.00 and didn't attack the line when 11th last start at Dubbo.
RP
Finished 11th of 12 over 7f at Dubbo (handicap) last month; has kicked on in his last couple of races but form has been up and down of late; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Started at 10/1 and didn't find the line when 11th last start at Dubbo.
Career
11: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track Mendooran
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Gabrielle Johnston winning at 27% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 23%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 5kg weight here
AAP
Closed off late from the tail at Orange. Fit from racing, can make his presence felt with even luck.
ILB
Jumped at $18.00 and ran past a few when 5th last run at Orange. Has shown early pace in races to date. Should get the job done.
RP
Creditable effort (went off 18-1) to finish fifth last Thursday at Orange in a handicap; yet to win in 11 starts.
RSIS
Odds of 17/1 and edged past some when finishing 5th last time at Orange. Displays good tactical pace. Strong claims.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Jeremy Gask striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
AAP
Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Not disgraced at Tamworth when second-up at $8.50. Fancy the extra trip will suit. Can have a major say if she gets the breaks.
ILB
At $8.50 finished 5th last run at Tamworth.
RP
Not disgraced in fifth at Tamworth two weeks ago in a handicap; entitled to respect with so many of these having something to prove.
RSIS
Was 15/2 and finished 5th last start at Tamworth.
Career
26: 0-2-3
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Port Macquarie
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
2: 0-1-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2110m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
4: 0-1-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
12: 0-1-2
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (25-weeks). Ex John Bannister in NSW. Limited impact so far. Failed to get near them last time in.
ILB
First up after a break. Couldn't stay in touch when 7th last time at Muswellbrook and back to a shorter distance. First race for a new trainer. Place at best.
RP
Beaten 8l in seventh over 1m½f at Muswellbrook (conditions race) six months ago; 27th attempt to break her duck; runs for a new trainer here; returns from a layoff here; others are preferred.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Struggled with the pace when 7th last start at Muswellbrook and dropping in distance. Racing for a new trainer.
Career
5: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
3: 0-0-0
Track Scone
1: 0-0-0
Track Tamworth
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 33% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 37%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Let-up (53-days). Moderate form profile overall. Had all before her at turn and went home tamely at Tamworth off long break. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Let up. Jumped at $101.00 and disappointing outing when 9th last time at Tamworth but can save some energy from the draw. Too much luck needed to come into contention.
RP
Finished ninth of 12 over 6f at Tamworth (maiden) 53 days ago when first-time blinkers didn't help.
RSIS
Let up. Started at 100/1 and below standard effort when 9th last run at Tamworth but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Ex Robert Quinn in NSW. Unfancied in all runs and performed accordingly. Query wet. Market watch under new trainer.
ILB
Was well beaten when 10th last run at Canberra. Racing for a new trainer.
RP
Still searching for first win after three tries; finished tenth, beaten a fair way over 6f at Canberra (maiden) last month; first run for yard; is passed over; also engaged in race 1 at Inverell and race 4 at Wauchope.
RSIS
Looked outclassed when 10th last run at Canberra. First race for a new trainer.
Career
9: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wellington
2: 0-0-0
Track Dubbo
3: 0-0-0
Track Coonamble
1: 0-0-0
Distance 800m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -20% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Knocked up after showing speed at Dubbo over this journey. On pacer. Well into preparation now, worth a look.
ILB
Tailed off to finish 9th last run at Dubbo. Has the talent to rebound quickly and gets a favourable alley. Jockey Clayton Gallagher is in form for this stable. Should go close.
RP
Still without a win after nine starts; ninth of 12 at Dubbo 15 days ago; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.
RSIS
Couldn't maintain the pace when 9th last start at Dubbo. Capable of a strong comeback and can find a nice position from the draw. Will show up at the business end.
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -38% POT in their L100 Races
On Debut
Positive
First race start
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). Gapped in only trial at Scone. Nice gate. Market may offer more insight.
ILB
3yo first starter by Smart Missile for Brett Thompson. Ran 5th in a trial at Scone on Oct 7th. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Related to 6f winner The Last Centurion; conceding experience to all his rivals; strong contender as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
Initial race appearance 3yo by Smart Missile for Brett Thompson. Finished 5th in a trial at Scone on Oct 7th. Betting as a guide.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 31% POT in L100 Runners
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Raced in back half and never landed a blow at Wellington. More a minor money chance here.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Average at best when 8th last time at Bathurst but can find a nice position from the draw.
RP
Last of eight at Bathurst yesterday in a handicap; winless in five starts but has shown promise with third her top showing; passed over; was due to run at Bathurst Friday.
RSIS
Backing up quickly for this race. Performed below standard when 8th last start at Bathurst but will try to take advantage of the draw.