Dallas Stars host the New York Islanders at American Airlines Center on Mon, 26 Oct, 9:00 am AEDT — a midweek marquee that looks clearer than the market makes it. The Stars roll in with momentum: four wins from their last five starts and a top-tier save percentage that’s propping up a stingy defence.
This is a classic value hunt: home side with superior defensive numbers and hotter recent form against an Islanders outfit that’s oscillated results and arrives off a loss. For anyone compiling their nhl picks, the value sits with backing Dallas to impose themselves early and grind out another result at home.
We’ll lay out the case: why Dallas are favoured on the board, what the Islanders can do to counter, and the single, bold call we’re backing.
Who will win? The match-winner case
Make no mistake — the market has Dallas as the favourite and the board reflects that. Dallas sit higher on the ladder with 13 points from 10 games (6-3-1) and a points percentage of 0.65, while the Islanders are on 12 points from 10 (5-3-2) and a 0.60 points rate. That ladder edge matters in a short season where momentum compounds.
Defence and goaltending are the defining edges here. Dallas’s season save percentage is 0.927 and they concede just 1.6 goals per game over the season, supported by a last-five goals-against average of 1.8. The Islanders’ save percentage sits at 0.914 with 2.2 goals against per game and a 2.0 goals-against average across their last five. Those margins favour Dallas — they’ve been harder to break down and cleaner at the back.
Form reads in Dallas’s favour too: the Stars have won four of their last five starts, including most recently a 3–2 home win over the Winnipeg Jets on Fri, 23 Oct. The Islanders are a patchier read — three wins and two losses in their last five, and they arrive off a 2–3 home defeat to the Los Angeles Kings on Fri, 23 Oct. That contrast matters in tight NHL affairs.
Offence is relatively close: Dallas average 2.5 goals per game this season and 3.0 across their last five, while the Islanders average 2.9 for the season and 2.6 over their most recent five. Home scoring over the short sample is near-identical — both teams have a 2.7 goals-for average at their home samples — so the tie-breaker here is the defence and netminding edge to Dallas.
There’s limited recent head-to-head history in the pack to lean on, so this call is driven by season-long defensive splits, goaltending numbers and the last-five form lines. The current win prices reflect Dallas as the favourite on the board; we’re siding with that market because the underlying metrics line up with the market's lean.
Tipped at $1.55 (9:13 pm AEDT). Opinion, not a guarantee. Gamble responsibly — 18+.
Head-to-head context
Season and last-five scoring — context for the match-winner market.
Leading scorers
Dallas Stars. Mikko Rantanen (RW) 5G 8A, Jason Robertson (LW) 3G 8A, Roope Hintz (LW) 5G 3A
New York Islanders. Bo Horvat (C) 5G 5A, Matthew Schaefer (D) 1G 8A, Brayden Schenn (C) 2G 4A
Risks and the counter-argument
The Islanders can’t be dismissed — they score at a decent clip (2.9 gpg for the season) and have a positive corsi percentage (53.5) that suggests puck control is there. If their power play (20%) gets a sniff and they find early momentum, they can force Dallas out of their structure.
Small samples bite in October. Dallas’s defensive numbers are excellent so far, but they’ve played only 10 games; any sudden injury or an off-night from the goalie could flip the script. We acknowledge that and size stakes accordingly.