Casino (NSW) horses tips & previews

Thursday 29 October 2026

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Casino (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Thursday 29 October 2026

Race 7 — Ballina Boxing Day Races Plate (C2) 1400m · jumps 5:15 pm AEDT

Race notes

CL2-SW,Class 2
HEAVY8
Overcast
8 runners

Shortest win price

Sorrenti (9)

3.10

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

1Airhawk

Offmidfield

9Sorrenti

Offpace

2Spicy Wings
10So Sain
3Stern Dispute

Onpace

4Sunset Trail
5Doingiteasy

Leader

6Lennystar

Airhawk · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Spicy Wings · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Stern Dispute · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Sunset Trail · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 43% in Last 100 Rides

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1AirhawkJ: Ben Looker·T: Ethan Ensby859kg6 5 3 1 14: 2-0-15.001.75

Career

4: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Lismore
2: 1-0-1
Track Grafton
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1310m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

1Grafton1400m13 Oct 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY8-2.09
1Lismore1526m25 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT5-1.34
3Lismore1310m10 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT53.2L
5Grafton1206m29 Aug 2026 · MDN · SOFT51L
6Casino1000m8 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
Ethan Ensby striking at just 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 40%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 10%
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape

Comments

AAP

Won after racing back and let down powerfully in rain affected going at Grafton over this journey. Trained on track but awkwardly drawn. Keep safe.

ILB

Ran home strongly to win last run at Grafton on a heavy surface and showing consistent performance in races. Maintaining a perfect record the last 2 starts. Place best.

Won by 2l (Grafton) when Doingiteasy and So Sain were behind him 16 days ago in a handicap; winner of two of his four runs to date and goes for a hat-trick today; every chance.

RSIS

Rounded them up when winning last time at Grafton and promising career start. Won last 2 on the bounce. Likely to get back in the run.

2Spicy WingsJ: Jett Newman·T: M J Dunn759kg5 1 9 6 912: 2-1-312.003.00

Career

12: 2-1-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
3: 0-1-1
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Ipswich
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1015m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1310m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0

Last starts

9Gold Coast1200m17 Oct 2026 · CL4 · SOFT77.21L
6Lismore1310m25 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT52.2L
9Grafton1400m7 Sept 2026 · BM66 · GOOD44.3L
1Murwillumbah1200m21 Aug 2026 · CL1 · SOFT5-1.2
5Deagon1050m4 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.8L
7Grafton956m24 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(3)4.5L
6Ipswich1710m6 Mar 2026 · BM60 · SOFT63L
4Coffs Harbour1600m15 Feb 2026 · BM66 · HEAVY84.5L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Jett Newman 34% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 5kg now

Comments

AAP

Ridden back and never a factor at Gold Coast. Capable of better.

ILB

Well beaten when 9th last run at Gold Coast but competing in a less challenging grade. Carrying more weight than last time. Can't leave out of your calculations.

Came home ninth, beaten 7l, in a handicap at Gold Coast two weeks ago; a few rivals look in good form so looks risky.

RSIS

Average performance when 9th last start at Gold Coast but matched against lesser competition. Has to cope with a weight increase. Not at all out of this race.

3Stern DisputeJ: Benjamin Osmond·T: K A Lees359kg7 5 2 9 17: 2-0-16.502.15

Career

7: 2-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed80%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Grafton
1: 1-0-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 2-0-1

Last starts

1Grafton1410m29 Sept 2026 · BM58 · SOFT6-0.29
9Coffs Harbour1212m3 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD44.8L
2Gosford1000m18 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)0.3L
5Newcastle800m3 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L
7Port Macquarie1500m26 Apr 2026 · BM58 · SOFT79.1L
5Wyong1300m4 Apr 2026 · CL1 · SOFT63.3L
1Newcastle850m24 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.2
8Tamworth1400m2 Mar 2026 · CL1 · GOOD45.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 16% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Handy and dug deep to win at Grafton when second-up. Prefers better than heavy. Stripping fitter, can again play a role.

ILB

Rocketed home when winning last time at Grafton. Competitive type.

Landed a narrow success in a handicap at Grafton last month; in with a shout.

RSIS

Strong effort to the line to win last run at Grafton. One of the punters top hopes.

4Sunset TrailJ: Luke Rolls·T: Stephen & Jordan Lee659kg4 1 4 2 17: 2-1-04.801.70

Career

7: 2-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Grafton
3: 1-1-0
Track Lismore
1: 1-0-0
Track Sha Tin
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1536m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Going Firm
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 2-1-0

Last starts

1Lismore1536m18 Oct 2026 · CTRY CL1 · SOFT7-2.27
2Grafton1410m29 Sept 2026 · BM58 · SOFT60.29L
4Grafton1600m7 Sept 2026 · CL1 · GOOD42.4L
1Grafton1430m18 Aug 2026 · MDN · SOFT6-0.1
4Pakenham Synthetic1000m7 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC2.2L
8Pakenham Synthetic1400m22 June 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC5.1L
13Sha Tin1400m7 Sept 2025 · 3UP RTG60-40 CLASS 4 · GOOD418.3L
4Sha Tin1200m22 Aug 2025 · Barrier Trial · GOOD6.5L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 43% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Luke Rolls 59% above market expected in L100 Rides
Key Jockey
Positive
Luke Rolls winning at 30% POT in last 100 rides
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

All honours in the small field at Lismore. Has speed. Soft tick, heavy query. Well placed to run another big race.

ILB

Took charge of the race to win by 2 1/4L last start at Lismore and form has been improving over recent runs. Should muster plenty of early speed. Could feature here.

Got the job done by just over 2l at Lismore 11 days ago in a handicap; likely to be a threat.

RSIS

Led and controlled the pace to win by 2 1/4L last time at Lismore and form has been improving over recent runs. Should muster plenty of early pace. Could feature here.

5DoingiteasyJ: Andrew Mallyon·T: M J Dunn257kg4 5 4 2 29: 1-2-25.001.80

Career

9: 1-2-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Grafton
3: 0-1-1
Track Lismore
2: 0-1-0
Track Casino
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1310m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-1
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-1

Last starts

2Grafton1400m13 Oct 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY82.09L
2Lismore1310m25 Sept 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT50.86L
4Grafton1200m7 Sept 2026 · BM58 · GOOD41.6L
5Beaudesert1050m27 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)3.9L
4Gold Coast1000m21 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.1L
3Beaudesert900m19 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.6L
5Doomben1660m29 Oct 2025 · CL1 · SOFT73L
1Murwillumbah1550m14 Oct 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD4-1.7

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

ILB

Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at Grafton and has a positive barrier. Has shown early pace in races to date. Great chance.

Producing consistent form; behind Airhawk in a handicap at Grafton two weeks ago.

RSIS

Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 2L last time at Grafton and will try to take advantage of the stall. Will be positive in the run early. Strong claims.

6LennystarJ: Jason Taylor·T: Allan Chau157kg2 2 11 9 119: 2-2-38.002.40

Career

19: 2-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1260m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-0

Last starts

1Lismore1320m18 Oct 2026 · Benchmark 58 · SOFT7-3.87
9Ipswich1350m16 July 2026 · F&M 0 - 58 · GOOD49.8L
11Gold Coast1400m4 July 2026 · 0 - 58 · GOOD49.1L
2Beaudesert1400m26 June 2026 · F&M 0 - 58 · SOFT70.2L
2Beaudesert1400m12 June 2026 · 0 - 58 · HEAVY101.58L
4Beaudesert1400m23 May 2026 · BM55 · SOFT61.65L
7Sunshine Coast Poly Track1100m17 May 2026 · 0 - 58 · SYNTHETIC3.1L
7Ballina1260m11 Apr 2026 · CL1 · SOFT59.9L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 159%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 27%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Led and in control from go to whoa at Lismore first up. Drawn to effect. Among the dangers again.

ILB

Made every post a winner when winning by just short of 4L last run at Lismore and will appreciate a good gate. Should come to hand quickly. Unlikely to feature.

Returned to winning ways in a handicap (Lismore) 11 days ago; despite that Lismore success, has some questions to answer.

RSIS

Controlled the pace to win by a margin of just short of 4L last time at Lismore and drawn by the rails. Has plenty of early pace.

7Oakfield MontanaScratched5––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Insights

Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week

Comments

AAP

Backing up quickly. Finished a long way from the action (Bm60) at Gold Coast Poly. On pacer. Others with stronger claims.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Lost ground in the run home when 10th last time at Gold Coast Poly.

RSIS

On a quick turnaround. Gave away some ground when 10th last run at Gold Coast Poly.

8PiplupScratched2––––

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Comments

ILB

Appeared lacklustre when 9th last run at Ballina but drawn nicely.

RSIS

Uncompetitive when 9th last start at Ballina but can find a nice position from the draw.

9SorrentiJ: Brandon Lerena·T: M J Dunn557kg2 3 1 8 37: 1-2-33.101.34

Career

7: 1-2-3

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating80%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Coffs Harbour
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballina
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Gold Coast1400m10 Oct 2026 · CL1 · GOOD41.72L
8Eagle Farm1400m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.11L
1Coffs Harbour1412m3 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
3Ballina1250m11 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · HEAVY101.4L
2Grafton1125m24 July 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD32.4L
4Murwillumbah900m1 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial5.3L
3Murwillumbah1200m28 Aug 2025 · Maiden · SOFT70.8L
2Ipswich1200m14 Aug 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD40.6L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 69%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 20%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Put in a long run from the back at Gold Coast over this journey. Profiles well.

ILB

Did well to run into 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last time at Gold Coast. Jockey Brandon Lerena is currently in strong form for this stable. Commands respect.

On the premises when third of eight at Gold Coast 19 days ago in a handicap.

RSIS

Managed to run into 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Gold Coast. Brandon Lerena and Matthew Dunn are an imposing duo. Expected to be competitive.

10So SainJ: Violet Soulsby·T: Ethan Ensby455kg2 3 5 1 820: 1-4-231.004.40

Career

20: 1-4-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Murwillumbah
1: 0-1-0
Track Grafton
6: 0-3-1
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1526m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
12: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
5: 0-2-0

Last starts

8Grafton1400m13 Oct 2026 · CL1 · HEAVY86.49L
1Ballina1590m4 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD3-0.35
5Lismore1526m25 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT56.17L
3Grafton1700m7 Sept 2026 · CTRY MDN-SW · GOOD41.4L
2Grafton1410m29 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT50.2L
2Murwillumbah1550m21 Aug 2026 · CTRY MDN · SOFT52.9L
6Casino1300m8 Aug 2026 · MDN · GOOD46.6L
6Grafton1006m12 July 2026 · Maiden · GOOD48L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 40%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Settled back and didn't figure in choppy conditions over this distance in the Hcp (C1) at Grafton. Hard to warm to.

ILB

At $21.00 performed below standard when 8th last run at Grafton. Facing a difficult task.

Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; beaten a fair way when eighth at Grafton 16 days ago in a handicap; easy to oppose as running in what looks to be a hot race.

RSIS

At 20/1 average at best when 8th last time at Grafton.

Odds correct as at 2:30 am AEDT. Odds can change.