Shortest win price
Chancellor (6)
2.60
Hamilton hosts a three-year-old maiden plate over 1600 metres on Good 4 going at 3:00 pm AEDT. The win market has Chancellor shortest, followed by Somethingintheair, Normandy Peace, and Apadana. This is a genuinely open maiden, which means value could be hiding beyond the quick-priced types. Chancellor comes in with form from two starts — a fourth at Donald over 1356 metres and an eighth at Bendigo over 1400 metres — but he's rated 100 by IRD and brings a jockey in Dean Yendall who is running 24 per cent above market expectation. The concern: a fresh campaign with just two public runs, and that Bendigo effort came on Soft 6. Somethingintheair sits second in the market with early speed that counts as an advantage on this circuit. The form stacks up too — a third at Wangaratta over 1300 metres second-up, beaten less than a length, and rated 94. But Amy Small's jockey-trainer combo has lost 100 per cent of POT in their last 100 races, a red flag that sits uncomfortably with the short odds.
Normandy Peace, third favourite, has shown promise across three appearances and brings form — back-to-back thirds at Warrnambool, most recently over 1400 metres in Good 4. The map position suits this track, and the comment flags early speed to run on, which matters from barrier 14. What works: first-up and second-up records show a win has come in this space. What doesn't: that draw is genuinely poor, and the horse will need luck in running. Apadana sits fourth and is currently undervalued in opinion. Tested in black-type company at the end of last campaign, this runner is fitter second-up, and the trainer P A Preusker is posting 64 per cent ROI across the last 100 runners. The form reads eighth at Horsham, 11th at Morphettville over 2546 metres — but that Morphettville effort came on Soft 6 and stretched the distance. Rated 92, Apadana offers a genuine edge at the fourth-line price.
The bold play leans toward Apadana as the value angle. Chancellor carries the shortest odds but has real form concerns outside the two starts on record. Somethingingintheair is well-backed and has the early speed to set it up, yet the trainer-jockey combination is a genuine cost. In an open heat, Apadana's recent POT from the stable, fitter second-up status, and honest rating suggest the market has shifted short without conviction. Normandy Peace is the live roughie if luck arrives at the gate.
Shortest win price
Chancellor (6)
2.60
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
I'Mnodrummerboy · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Lord Lonny · Negative
Jockey Booking
Cian Macredmond current POT is 38% below Career Avg.
Prince Iadora · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 40% better than Career Avg.
Somethingintheair · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Career
9: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (81-days). Placed only other run at Hamilton. Drawn for a soft run and has place claims.
ILB
Resuming. Was $3.30 and finished 4th last run at Warrnambool but has the ideal alley. Interesting to see the winkers go off for the first time but down in distance. Needs significant improvement.
RP
Finished fourth, beaten 8l, over 1m2f at Warrnambool (maiden) three months ago; producing fairly consistent form; shown signs of promise here and there and shortlisted.
RSIS
Back after a break. Odds of 9/4 and came in 4th last run at Warrnambool but drawn well. Interesting to see the cheekpieces go off for the first time.
Career
9: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-1
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1606m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1620m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Cian Macredmond current POT is 38% below Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 56% in L100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Beaten a few lengths but found enough to fill the minors at St Arnaud first run back. Better for the outing. Place preferred option.
ILB
Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last start at St Arnaud. Yet to break maiden status after 9 starts. Others are more appealing.
RP
Not beaten far when third at 20-1 at St Arnaud last month; has raised his game the last twice but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at nine; passed over.
RSIS
Kept chasing when 3rd last run at St Arnaud. Yet to break maiden status after 9 runs.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
3: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 40% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Dean Parker 37% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dean Parker in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 37%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Not Trustworthy
Negative
May be competing at this level for some time
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Mortlake. Deep into his campaign, only for the minors here.
ILB
Odds of $13.00 and advanced late into 5th last time at Mortlake. Capable type.
RP
Beaten 9l when fifth of ten over 6½f at Mortlake (maiden) last month; yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at eight; form of the stable is a plus; this is competitive and easy to oppose.
RSIS
Started at 12/1 and chased well when 5th last start at Mortlake. Must respect.
Career
7: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
3: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Sent forward and stuck to the task bravely at Wangaratta second-up. Mile suits and makes a strong case in this company.
ILB
Was outmuscled when 3rd last time at Wangaratta. Should muster plenty of early speed. Commands respect.
RP
Not beaten far over 6½f at Wangaratta (maiden) last month; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; recent effort was creditable so has to be taken seriously.
RSIS
Peaked on the run when 3rd last start at Wangaratta. Has plenty of early pace. Good enough chance at a very tempting price.
Career
14: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 19% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Well back and made limited headway at St Arnaud. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Jumped at $6.50 and ran past a few when 5th last run at St Arnaud. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Could not manage better than fifth (St Arnaud) last month when just behind Lord Lonny; has raised his game the last twice but still winless and defeats stacking up (14 on the bounce); this looks a fair heat so looks opposable.
RSIS
Started at 11/2 and passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last time at St Arnaud. Has some claims.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1356m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 25% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Dean Yendall 24% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -44% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 17%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Second campaign (14-weeks). Given a solid hitout to finish second in latest Mortlake jumpout. Among the dangers fresh in this company.
ILB
Racing fresh after a break. Jumped at $9.50 and finished 8th last run at Bendigo. Looking past the last run and has a positive alley. Should go close.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 4½l in eighth) over 7f at Bendigo (maiden) in July; passed over.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Was 17/2 and finished 8th last time at Bendigo. Can make a comeback and has a positive stall. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Track Mortlake
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 334%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Two runs to date have been lacklustre. Quickly up in trip. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Started $101.00 and ordinary performance when 8th last start at Mortlake but racing over extra ground. Would rather look at others.
RP
Eighth beaten 7l at Mortlake over 5½f (maiden) when dropped in distance nine days ago; others appeal more.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and unimpressive effort when 8th last run at Mortlake but racing over extra ground.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2050m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let-up (46-days). Ex E & D Browne in Victoria. Resumes without a trial or jumpout. Two runs to date have been lacklustre. Looks up against it.
ILB
Back from a let up. Started $71.00 and weakened to finish 12th last start at Moe and back in trip. First race for a new trainer. Will need to lift.
RP
Tailed off (Moe) 46 days ago upped to 1m2f; runs for a new trainer here; is a player.
RSIS
Back from a let up. Odds of 70/1 and didn't threaten when 12th last time at Moe and back to a shorter trip. First start for a new trainer.
Career
3: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Shown some promise across three appearances. Horror draw and will need to be able to run on but strikes a race he can win.
ILB
Finished with intent when 3rd beaten by 1/2L last time at Warrnambool and showing consistent performance in races. Has run into the money at every start this campaign. Expecting a strong showing.
RP
Went close at 20-1 at Warrnambool over 7f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Improved to place when 3rd beaten by 1/2L last time at Warrnambool and good career start. Has not missed the money of late in 2 attempts. Will go close.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1462m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Kilmore at second appearance. Really needs to raise his game.
ILB
Started $101.00 and average at best when 8th last time at Kilmore. Zac Moore takes a large claim. Difficult to warm to at present.
RP
Behind Money Wheel at Kilmore over 7½f (maiden) when beaten 19l (eighth of ten) last month; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
At 100/1 disappointing effort when 8th last start at Kilmore. The large claim from Zac Moore should help.
Career
9: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Scone
3: 0-1-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-1
Track Horsham
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1563m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-1-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 64% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Tested in black type company at the end of last campaign. Fitter second-up. Worth a look.
ILB
Struggled with the pace when 8th last time at Horsham. Serious contender.
RP
Beaten 8l in eighth over 7f at Horsham (maiden) last month; still winless and defeats stacking up (nine on the bounce); a few rivals look in good form so has questions to answer.
RSIS
Weakened under pressure when 8th last start at Horsham. Represents significant value.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
2: 0-0-0
Track Penola
1: 0-0-0
Track Naracoorte
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 26%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at Penola second-up. Form doesn't leap off the page.
ILB
Started at $10.00 and average performance when 8th last run at Penola. Might have to make up considerable ground. Facing a difficult task today.
RP
Held in eighth over 7f at Penola (maiden) last month; should not be far away.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and underperformed when 8th last start at Penola. Might have to make up considerable ground.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 28% better than Career Avg.
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 35% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
AAP
Back for second campaign (23-weeks). Fourth in latest Mortlake jumpout. Couldn't get involved in either start of first preparation but respect the stable around these parts.
ILB
First up from a break. Started $17.00 and looked outclassed when 7th last run around here. Winkers go on for the first time. Prefer a race with softer competition.
RP
Beaten 15l (seventh) in May; returns from a layoff; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. At 16/1 was well beaten when 7th last run here on a heavy rated track. Interesting gear change of cheekpieces on first time.
Career
20: 0-3-3
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-0-1
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
5: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1454m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
10: 0-1-2
Going Heavy
6: 0-2-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 67%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Wycheproof. Not fancied.
ILB
Started $8.00 and chased well when 4th last time at Wycheproof. Still in maiden grade after 20 starts. Would not recommend.
RP
Solid run when fourth at Wycheproof over 7f (maiden) last month; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs but still winless and defeats stacking up (20 on the bounce); others appeal more with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
At 7/1 showed some merit late when 4th last time at Wycheproof. Trying to win after 20 starts.
Career
26: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
4: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2435m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
10: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
5: 0-2-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-1
AAP
Finished a long way from the action at Mortlake. Form falls short of this.
ILB
Disappointing display when 7th last start at Mortlake.
RP
Held when seventh beaten 12l at Mortlake back down to this trip last month; useful in this grade.
RSIS
Below expectations when 7th last start at Mortlake.
Career
20: 0-4-4
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
5: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
4: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1543m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1980m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 0-4-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-2
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Kilmore at wide odds. Needs to lift but likely to have taken benefit from last start.
ILB
Came in 5th last start at Kilmore.
RP
Grade looks suitable; out of the frame when fifth at Kilmore over 7½f (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Came in 5th last time at Kilmore.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Track Penola
1: 0-0-0
Track Burrumbeet
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
AAP
Unplaced in all 7 runs to date. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Jumped at $13.00 and subpar when 6th last time at Wycheproof.
RP
Was sixth of eight, beaten 6l, at Wycheproof over 1m1f (maiden) nine days ago.
RSIS
Started 12/1 and disappointing outing when 6th last start at Wycheproof.
Career
15: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
2: 0-0-0
Track Coleraine
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1206m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1208m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1406m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Well back and never sighted at Warrnambool at a mammoth price. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Didn't find the line when 13th last start at Warrnambool.
RP
Behind Prince Iadora over 6½f at Warrnambool (maiden) when finishing last of 13 three weeks ago; has proven competitive in a race of this nature.
RSIS
Tailed off to finish 13th last time at Warrnambool.