Pakenham Synthetic (VIC) horsestips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham Synthetic (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Friday 2 October 2026

Race 5 — Mcmahon's Dairy (Bm70) 1000m · jumps 8:15 pm AEST

Race notes

3yo+,Benchmark 70,F&M BM70
SYNTHETIC
Showers
6 runners

Shortest win price

Headbanger (3)

1.95

Most career wins

Shooting For Stars

6-8-6 from 51 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

2Milos Filos

Midfield

4Iced Poppy

Offpace

10Shooting For Stars
1Shaime

Onpace

3Headbanger

Leader

7Sweet Vixen

Shaime · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Milos Filos · Negative
Trainer SR
Liam Howley striking at just 5%
Headbanger · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Iced Poppy · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 24% lower than Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1ShaimeJ: Ethan Brown·T: C I Brown362kg3 8 2 1 1128: 4-6-25.502.40

Career

28: 4-6-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
6: 1-1-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-2
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-2-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Moonee Valley
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
4: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 3-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

11Caulfield1200m11 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT75.9L
1Sandown1200m25 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT5-0.3
2Caulfield Heath1200m4 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.3L
8Cranbourne1200m6 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD315L
3Flemington1200m31 Dec 2025 · BM70 · GOOD33.2L
5Caulfield Heath1200m20 Dec 2025 · 3UP F&M BM78 HCP · GOOD43.1L
11Pakenham Synthetic1200m29 Aug 2025 · BM78 · SYNTHETIC8.9L
6Flemington1200m2 Aug 2025 · 3UP BM74 HCP · GOOD43.3L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 35% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Clifford I Brown striking at just 5%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Ethan Brown 59% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 40%
Key Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown winning at 36% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance

Comments

AAP

Resuming (24-weeks). Solid form at this level last campaign. Proven fresh performer. Winner of a Mornington jump-out 16/9. Warrants attention.

ILB

Fresh after a break. Was $10.00 and didn't find the line when 11th last run at Caulfield. Looking past the last run but carrying more weight than last time. Major chance.

IRD

First up after a break. Started $10.00 and faded to finish 11th last run at Caulfield. May see an upturn in form but will have to carry extra weight. Will be competitive.

RSIS

First run back. Started at 9/1 and didn't threaten when 11th last start at Caulfield. Capable of a strong comeback but has to cope with a weight increase. Will go close.

2Milos FilosJ: Alana Kelly·T: Liam Howley660.5kg4 2 3 1 411: 2-2-25.502.40

Career

11: 2-2-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-2-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

4Seymour800m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.2L
1Sandown1400m23 May 2026 · 3Y FILLIES BM78 HCP · SOFT7-1.25
3Flemington1200m16 May 2026 · 3Y HCP · GOOD42.5L
2Caulfield Heath1200m29 Apr 2026 · 3Y BM64 · GOOD40.5L
4Mornington1200m18 Apr 2026 · 3YF HCP · GOOD42.4L
4Caulfield1200m4 Apr 2026 · 3Y FILLIES HCP · GOOD31.8L
1Kyneton1206m13 Mar 2026 · 3Y FILLIES MDN-SW · GOOD4-2.8
2Seymour1100m20 Feb 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD42.3L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Liam Howley striking at just 5%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end

Comments

AAP

First-up (18-weeks). Not beaten far Maiden company at Geelong first-up last preparation. Jump-outs have been okay. Can challenge again fresh in this company.

ILB

Had a break from racing and returns to competition. Finished well when winning last run at Sandown and facing weaker opposition. Back to a shorter distance. Up in weight. Serious contender.

IRD

Fresh after a break. Charged home to win last start at Sandown and challenged by less formidable competitors. Has good finishing speed. Will be down in distance. Quietly confident of a big run at decent odds.

RSIS

Back from a break. Ran over the top of them when winning last time at Sandown and matched against lesser competition. Should get going late. Coming back in trip. In the mix against these.

3HeadbangerJ: Blake Shinn·T: G M Begg859kg2 1 5 1 58: 2-2-11.951.24

Career

8: 2-2-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 2-1-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-2-1

Last starts

5Sandown1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT72.8L
1Cranbourne1000m13 Mar 2026 · 3Y FILLIES BM64 HCP · GOOD4-2
5Flemington1100m28 Feb 2026 · 3Y FILLIES HCP · GOOD45L
1Cranbourne1000m13 Feb 2026 · 3Y F MDN-SW · GOOD3-8
2Sandown1000m28 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L
3Cranbourne1000m12 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.2L
7Pakenham1000m28 Nov 2025 · 3YF MDN-SW · SOFT55.6L
2Hawkesbury1100m9 Apr 2025 · Handicap · GOOD41.29L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Latest attempt this journey when reasonable effort without seriously threatening in choppy conditions at Sandown-Hillside. Fitter second-up. Form sound this track and distance. Can show more here.

ILB

Odds of $3.10 and tailed off to finish 5th last time at Sandown. Capable of a strong comeback. Will be pushing for a forward position early. This race suits.

IRD

Started $3.10 and weakened to finish 5th last start at Sandown. Should improve from the last run. Should race on the speed. Likeable type and a major player.

RSIS

Started 11/5 and struggled with the pace when 5th last start at Sandown. Capable of a strong comeback. Expecting to settle positively. Solid chance to come away with the spoils.

4Iced PoppyJ: Lachlan King·T: Ben Brisbourne1059kg1 10 3 4 110: 3-1-25.002.30

Career

10: 3-1-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 2-0-1
Distance 1209m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Bendigo1100m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-2.25
4Bendigo1000m6 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT50.8L
3Bendigo1100m12 Aug 2026 · 3UP F&M BM66 HCP · HEAVY93L
10Sandown1300m22 July 2026 · Benchmark 66 · SOFT68L
1Bendigo1100m5 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY9-1.3
1Kyneton1479m10 Feb 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
3Wangaratta1400m18 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD31.4L
2Gundagai1400m2 Jan 2026 · MDN SW · GOOD30.8L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 24% lower than Career Avg.
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 25% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 5%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Triumphant on speed display at Bendigo. On pacer. Fit from racing, worth a look.

ILB

Rounded them up to win last start at Bendigo but up against a higher level of opposition. Very competitive this campaign. Low-key chance.

IRD

Picked up late to win last run at Bendigo but rising in grade. Very competitive this campaign. Keep safe.

RSIS

Was eating up the ground late to win last time at Bendigo but stepping up to a higher level.

5SojuScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Comments

AAP

Ex Simon Zahra in Victoria. Long winless run. Not disgraced at Bendigo over this distance. Others rate stronger.

ILB

Closed off nicely when 5th last run at Bendigo but facing a stronger group of contenders. Coming to a new trainer and gets some weight relief.

IRD

Edged past some when finishing 5th last start at Bendigo but challenged by more formidable competitors. First start for a new trainer and gets a reduction in weight.

RSIS

Kept chasing when 5th last time at Bendigo but facing a stronger group of contenders. First start for a new trainer and suited by the weight drop.

6Le NotreScratched1––––

Career

6: 1-0-2

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1

Last starts

1Pakenham1200m22 May 2026 · 2UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT6-2
5Warrnambool1200m5 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY85.2L
4Mornington1200m5 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.9L
3Cranbourne1200m20 Mar 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD33.8L
3Stony Creek1100m8 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT60.9L
5Gold Coast1200m12 July 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT52.2L
1Beaudesert1050m27 June 2025 · Barrier Trial-3
2Gold Coast850m17 June 2025 · Barrier Trial0.8L

Insights

Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside

Comments

AAP

First-up (19-weeks). Ex S B Laming. Trained here now. Form honest through last campaign. Placed at Stony Creek first-up last campaign.

ILB

First up after a break. Dashed home to win last start at Pakenham and can save some energy from the alley. Will be giving the leaders a big start.

IRD

Fresh today. Ran over the top of them when winning last time at Pakenham and drawn well. Up against tougher rivals.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Reeled them in to win last time at Pakenham and drawn beautifully. Rising in class.

7Sweet VixenJ: Logan Bates·T: Ms C Alderson955.5kg2 1 53: 1-1-05.502.45

Career

3: 1-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1006m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Pakenham1200m26 Mar 2026 · 3Y BM64 · HEAVY912.7L
1Pakenham1100m5 Mar 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.5
2Sale1006m11 Feb 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 44%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 28% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (27-weeks). Placed at Sale on debut last campaign. Recent 2nd at a jump-out here. Can make her presence felt fresh in this line-up with even breaks.

ILB

First up after 27 weeks and attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 1/2L first up last preparation at Sale. Should muster plenty of early speed. Has some claims.

IRD

First up after 27 weeks and managed to place 2nd beaten by 1/2L first up last preparation at Sale. Displays good tactical speed. Promising career start. Hard to see finishing out of the placings.

RSIS

Resuming and ran home into 2nd resuming last preparation at Sale. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Showing consistent performance in races. Should not be left out of your thoughts.

8ParcaeScratched2––––

Rating · IRD

Comments

AAP

Short odds and duly saluted at Mornington on debut. M J Dee retains the ride. Can show up again at fair odds.

ILB

Nice effort when winning by 2 1/2L last start at Mornington and having second career run. Can find a nice position from the draw. Challenged by more formidable competitors.

IRD

Chimed in with a win by 2 1/2L last start at Mornington and having second career run. Drawn nicely. Competing in a more challenging grade.

RSIS

Winner by 2 1/2L last run at Mornington and was a debutant last start. Can find a nice position from the draw. Matched against tougher rivals.

9FontaliciousScratched7––––

Career

5: 1-1-1

Rating · IRD

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
4: 1-1-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

8Sandown1000m9 Sept 2026 · 3Y BM64 · SOFT74.1L
3Sandown1000m22 July 2026 · 2YF HCP · SOFT61.9L
2Morphettville1000m11 July 2026 · 2Y CL1 HCP · HEAVY101.8L
1Cranbourne1000m21 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT7-0.4
4Mornington1200m23 Dec 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD410.5L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 6%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Set tempo, offered little resistance when challenged at Sandown-Hillside over this journey. Has early speed. Remote place hope at best.

ILB

Started at $16.00 and couldn't maintain the pace when 8th last time at Sandown but solid career start. In a purple patch of form since coming back from a break.

IRD

At $16.00 folded up in the straight when 8th last time at Sandown but putting a tidy record together so far. Been in the money frequently this campaign.

RSIS

Started 15/1 and looked outclassed when 8th last start at Sandown but solid career start. Looking sharp on the track since resuming from a break.

10Shooting For StarsJ: Sarah Robbins·T: Brendon Newport555kg6 1 3 3 551: 6-8-641.008.50

Career

51: 6-8-6

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-2-0
Track Barcaldine
1: 0-0-0
Track Carrathool
1: 0-1-0
Track Hillston
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1050m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
24: 3-3-2
Going Heavy
10: 1-3-1
Going Soft
13: 2-0-3

Last starts

5Mount Gambier900m20 Sept 2026 · 0-54 · SOFT52.28L
3Naracoorte1100m28 Aug 2026 · 0-54 · HEAVY94.1L
3Warracknabeal1000m15 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT60.9L
1Mount Gambier900m7 Aug 2026 · 0-54 · HEAVY10-1.53
6Barcaldine1300m6 July 2026 · BM50 · GOOD42.82L
5Wodonga1100m27 June 2026 · BM52 · HEAVY81.6L
4Wagga1000m21 June 2026 · BM58 · HEAVY107.9L
12Bendigo1100m13 June 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT55.62L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Finished it off only fairly at Mt Gambier when supported. Strikes a harder race.

ILB

At $3.50 struggled with the pace when 5th last time at Mount Gambier and competing at a higher level of competition. Likely to settle back in the field. Needs significant improvement.

IRD

Started at $3.50 and didn't find the line when 5th last time at Mount Gambier and taking on stronger competition. Likely to get back. Looks to be in trouble.

RSIS

Was 5/2 and gave away some ground when 5th last time at Mount Gambier and challenged by a tougher grade. Likely to get back in the run.

Odds correct as at 11:10 am AEST. Odds can change.