Warwick Farm (NSW) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 2:32 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Warwick Farm (NSW), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Wed 11 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Wed, 11 NovWarwick Farm (NSW)Change

Race 3 — Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines (Bm68) 1200m · jumps Wed 11 Nov, 3:30 pm AEDT

Race preview

Warwick Farm hosts race three on a Good4 track for the Kia Ora Bloodlines To Headlines BM68 over 1200m, with fine weather set for the 3:30 pm AEDT jump. The win market order places Priory Park at the head of affairs, followed by Regal, Baylie's Folly, Letters Patent, Kosei Top, and Somerford rounding out the group in that exact sequence. Fortune favours the bold here, and the value sits with taking on the market leader in search of some real overs.

Priory Park comes in as the shortest priced runner from barrier two for Annabel and Rob Archibald, with James Mc Donald steering. This runner put up a dominant win in a cakewalk at Kembla Grange over 1000m following a lengthy absence, backed by a solid trial placing here at Warwick Farm. However, the stable is currently out of form, and the market may be leaning too heavily on that last start dominance. Meanwhile, Regal sits next in the market order from barrier seven for trainer Bjorn Baker and jockey Sam Clipperton, coming off a bullish win at Kembla Grange over 1200m where it showed high speed. That up-and-comer profile presents a serious threat to the favourite.

Further down the market order, Baylie's Folly is drawn wide in barrier eight for Matthew Smith and Kerrin Mc Evoy, bringing a solid victory at Nowra over 1200m where it gave them a spanking off a long spell. Sectionals suggest it goes hard early, though the tricky draw makes things interesting. Letters Patent is another off-pace runner from barrier one for C J Waller and Tommy Berry, kicking off a second campaign after placing in the minors here on debut last preparation while building fitness through trials. Expect a high-pressure setup with Priory Park leading the speed group, making this a fascinating test of stamina and tactical grit.

Race notes

3Y BM68 HCP,3yo,Benchmark 68,GRAD BM68
GOOD4
Fine
6 runners

Shortest win price

Priory Park (1)

1.45

Most career wins

Priory Park

2-0-0 from 4 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

2Kosei Top
7Somerford

Offpace

3Letters Patent
5Baylie's Folly
6Regal

Leader

1Priory Park

Priory Park · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Kosei Top · Negative
Jockey Booking
Jason Collett current POT is 22% below Career Avg.
Letters Patent · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Baylie's Folly · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Priory ParkJ: James Mc Donald·T: Annabel & Rob Archibald259.5kg5 3 7 3 14: 2-0-0$1.45$1.06

Career

4: 2-0-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 1-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 2-0-0

Last starts

1Kembla Grange1000m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM64 HCP · GOOD4-4.3
3Warwick Farm821m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.9L
7Rosehill1030m2 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L
3Warwick Farm795m3 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.4L
5Gosford1200m9 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD43.5L
1Muswellbrook1000m1 May 2026 · 2Y C&G HCP · GOOD4-0.6
4Hawkesbury1100m8 Apr 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD42.2L
1Warwick Farm792m20 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)-0.1

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 29% Profit on Turnover
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4kg weight here

Comments

AAP

Form to date solid. Won in a cakewalk at Kembla Grange after lengthy absence. On pacer, perfect gate and only fitter. Take a power of beating again.

ILB

Ran away with a win by a margin of 4 1/4L last start at Kembla Grange and can find a nice position from the draw. Strong contender.

Has made an impressive start to his career with two wins from four starts; landed Kembla Grange handicap in good style two weeks ago; likely to be involved.

RSIS

Comprehensive victory when winning by 4 1/4L last run at Kembla Grange and has a good draw. Jockey James Mcdonald is a plus but going up in weight. Strong contender.

2Kosei TopJ: Jason Collett·T: C J Waller558kg10 1 51: 1-0-0$17.00$3.80

Career

1: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Sale
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1213m
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0

Last starts

5Warwick Farm798m30 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.1L
1Sale1213m9 July 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY9-1.3
10Rosehill900m23 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)10.5L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Jason Collett current POT is 22% below Career Avg.
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 31%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (17-weeks). Showcased his talent with an impressive debut win in heavy ground at Sale. Not pushed out Warwick Farm trial 30 Oct. In leading yard and should come on again in tougher affair.

ILB

First run back from a break. Finished with purpose when winning last run at Sale and having second career run. Testing ability against stronger contenders. Prefer in a much weaker race.

Scored first time out at Sale at 11-1 in July; layoff to overcome; every chance.

RSIS

First run back from a break. Ran on hard when winning last start at Sale and having second career run. Challenged by a tougher grade.

3Letters PatentJ: Tommy Berry·T: C J Waller158kg3 3 1 5 64: 1-0-1$11.00$3.20

Career

4: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 1-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0

Last starts

6Rosehill1300m15 Aug 2026 · 3Y BM72 · SOFT54.1L
5Randwick1100m25 July 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT61.9L
1Newcastle1200m11 July 2026 · 2Y MDN · SOFT6-1.7
3Warwick Farm1100m24 June 2026 · 2Y C&G HCP · GOOD41.4L
3Rosehill900m19 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)3.1L
5Warwick Farm788m9 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.1L
2Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.7L
6Rosehill900m23 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)6.8L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Tommy Berry 38% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 31%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Tommy Berry winning at 27% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1

Comments

AAP

Kicks off second campaign (12-weeks). In the minors at Warwick Farm on debut last campaign while building fitness through 2 trials. Right in the mix fresh in this company.

ILB

First up after 12 weeks and ran well when 3rd first up last preparation at the track. Placed in all trials and matched against lesser competition. Good tough competitor that can be supported.

Not beaten that far over 6½f at Rosehill (handicap) three months ago; makes limited appeal.

RSIS

Resuming and placed 3rd resuming last preparation at this track. Fitter for placing in all trials and facing a weaker group of contenders. Drawn well. Should go well.

4Miss ScandalScratched3––––

Career

5: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
4: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Hawkesbury1100m27 Oct 2026 · CL1 · GOOD43.77L
6Warwick Farm1100m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y GRAD BM68 HCP · SOFT67L
4Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.8L
1Canterbury1250m8 June 2026 · 2YF MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.1
5Canterbury1100m27 May 2026 · 2Y FILLIES MDN HCP · SOFT72.5L
3Rosehill900m22 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)2.4L
3Rosehill900m11 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L
8Rosehill1100m31 Jan 2026 · 2yo · GOOD46.8L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 31%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 30% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Modest performance at Hawkesbury after speccing from $6.50 into $4.80 when second-up. Has scope.

ILB

At $4.80 didn't attack the line when 4th last start at Hawkesbury. Expecting to settle positively.

Finished fourth but wasn't beaten too far (just under 4l) over 5½f at Hawkesbury (handicap) 15 days ago; hard enough to fancy.

RSIS

At 4/1 weakened to finish 4th last time at Hawkesbury. Likely to be well placed early.

5Baylie's FollyJ: Kerrin Mc Evoy·T: Matthew Smith856.5kg1 1 4 6 13: 1-0-0$9.00$2.80

Career

3: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 1-0-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

1Nowra1200m18 Oct 2026 · MDN · GOOD4-3
6Randwick Kensington1100m25 Mar 2026 · 2YCG OSC · SOFT76.7L
4Warwick Farm1000m11 Mar 2026 · 2YCG MDN · SOFT63.5L
1Randwick1050m5 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-0.7
1Warwick Farm792m16 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial-0.7

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Firming fav when gave them a spanking at Nowra off long spell. Draw no favours here but fitter and can again play a role with even breaks.

ILB

Thrashed the field when winning by 3L last time at Nowra but challenged by a tougher grade. Has some claims.

Won a handicap by 3l at Nowra when getting off the mark at the third time of asking last month; despite that Nowra success, not one to rely on.

RSIS

Won by a big margin of 3L last run at Nowra but up against stronger rivals.

6RegalJ: Sam Clipperton·T: Bjorn Baker756kg5 2 4 12: 1-0-0$4.80$1.75

Career

2: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

1Kembla Grange1200m24 Oct 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD4-7
4Hawkesbury1000m8 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.65L
2Rosehill900m8 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.1L
5Warwick Farm798m13 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.9L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 23% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Bullish win at Kembla Grange at second start. Possesses high speed. Looks an up and comer from the Baker team and well placed to go on with it.

ILB

Spaced the field to win by 7L last run at Kembla Grange but up in grade. Some hope in this event.

Registered first success at the second time of asking when scoring by 7l two weeks ago at Kembla Grange in a maiden; prospects.

RSIS

Bolted in when winning by 7L last start at Kembla Grange but racing against tougher rivals.

7SomerfordJ: Rachel King·T: Brad Widdup655kg3 3 4 1 63: 1-0-0$41.00$6.50

Career

3: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-0-0

Last starts

6Warwick Farm821m13 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)6.7L
1Kembla Grange1300m25 July 2026 · F&M MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8
4Newcastle1200m11 July 2026 · 2Y MDN · SOFT62.6L
3Hawkesbury1000m29 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)2.3L
3Randwick1050m12 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.9L
6Canberra1000m20 Feb 2026 · 2Y SW · GOOD45.3L
3Canterbury899m6 Feb 2026 · Barrier Trial1.9L
5Hawkesbury800m23 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial2.5L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 32% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Rachel King 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

First-up (15-weeks). Not beaten far Maiden company at Newcastle first-up last preparation. Trialled twice. Back in tougher company but has scope.

ILB

Back from a break. Rocketed home when winning last run at Kembla Grange and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Competing in a higher grade. Needs a mighty effort to win this.

Landed a narrow success in a maiden (Kembla Grange) when registering her first success at the third time of asking four months ago; she can be taken on despite that win at Kembla Grange.

RSIS

First run back after a break. Romped home to win last run at Kembla Grange but racing in stronger company. Has not placed in all trials.

8TokorikiScratched4––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey50%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

5Randwick1200m6 Nov 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.8L
7Hawkesbury1000m20 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4.4L

Insights

First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (2:0-0-0). $475k purchase. Out of an unraced half-sister to the stakes winner City Style. Heading into debut with two lead-up trials. Others profiling stronger.

ILB

3yo by Zoustar having first race start for Matthew Smith. Follow the money.

The only newcomer in the field; there's hope from the sire that she has some ability; related to Grade 2 winner Depth Of Character; she should go close with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

Matthew Smith 3yo by Zoustar on debut.

Odds correct as at Wed 11 Nov, 3:30 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 6 races
Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 7 races
Mon 5 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
Wed 2 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races