Shortest win price
Blenheim Girl (4)
2.50
Warwick Farm hosts race 4 on the program, the Tab (Bm72) over 2110m on a good 4 surface under fine weather conditions. The win market order has Blenheim Girl sitting at the top of the betting, closely followed by Zonkstar, Hallowed Halls, and Rye Manhattan rounding out the prominent early fancies in this benchmark 72 handicap for three-year-olds and upwards.
Blenheim Girl represents the stable of C J Waller with Tommy Berry taking the ride from barrier 7, arriving here after a strong win over 2130m at this track where she finished too well. Zonkstar is another key player from barrier 4 for trainer Matthew Smith and rider Rachel King, coming off a brave second-place finish at this venue following a Canberra win. Hallowed Halls is also under stable care with James Mc Donald steering from barrier 6, looking ready to peak after running a handy third over 2130m here last time out.
Looking further down the order, Rye Manhattan lines up from barrier 2 for trainers John O'Shea and Tom Charlton with Dylan Gibbons in the saddle, coming off a gutsy maiden win where the runner wore them down late over 1800m at Hawkesbury. With Lugarno expected to handle early pacing duties from the inside and a slower early tempo anticipated according to recent sectional data, the value sits with those capable of finishing strongly over this distance.
Shortest win price
Blenheim Girl (4)
2.50
Most career wins
Fair Master
4-1-2 from 11 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Hallowed Halls · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Fair Master · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Zonkstar · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 32% in Last 100 Rides
Blenheim Girl · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Career
11: 2-0-1
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
2: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 2-0-1
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
Knocking on the door. Handily placed and gave his all this track. This looks very achievable.
ILB
Kept running on late when 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last start at the track. Jockey James Mcdonald is in form. Well respected contender.
RP
Good effort when 1½l third upped to this distance last month (lost whip); easy enough to take on as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.
RSIS
Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last time here. Jockey James Mcdonald is a bonus. Good winning chance.
Career
11: 4-1-2
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Albury
4: 2-1-0
Track Wagga
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 1-0-1
Going Good
10: 3-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Doug Gorrel in good form, out performing market 73%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 55% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
AAP
Southern districts 4yo racing in great heart. Responded strongly to score in small field at Albury. Usually gets back. Tougher ask here but stays on the radar.
ILB
Stormed home to win last time at Albury and has a positive draw. Racing consistently this campaign but facing stiffer opposition. Strong claims in this.
RP
Has achieved four wins from 11 career runs; won by 2l at Albury two weeks ago upped to 1m2f; likely to be in contention.
RSIS
Ran on strongly to win last run at Albury and has a positive draw. Stepping up to a higher level. Significant value and can go close.
Career
4: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Canberra
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2130m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 32% in Last 100 Rides
Jockey Booking
Positive
Rachel King 25% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -61% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Well supported Canberra winner two back. Brave in defeat 3yo+ (Bm72) this venue. Warrants attention.
ILB
Ran on when 2nd last run at the track and putting a tidy record together. Has early speed and positions nicely. Very competitive this preparation. Will go close here.
RP
Two from four in his career so far; behind Blenheim Girl last month when a respectable second; likely to be in contention.
RSIS
Did well to run 2nd beaten by 1L last start here and showing consistent performance in races. Should come to hand quickly. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
8: 3-1-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2130m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 2-1-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 36% better than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Positive
Tommy Berry 38% above market expected in L100 Rides
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
In good order. Finished too well winning 3yo+ (Bm72) this track. Major player here.
ILB
Finished hard to win last run here and getting better in recent performances. Will have to carry extra weight. Value selection.
RP
Won a handicap by just over 1l last month beating three of these rivals upped to this trip; every chance.
RSIS
Charged home to win last run around here and showing improvement in recent outings. Has more weight to carry. Should go close.
Career
28: 3-6-4
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 1-0-2
Second-up
4: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
3: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
5: 0-0-1
Track Wyong
5: 1-1-2
Distance 2130m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2140m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
18: 2-4-3
Going Heavy
4: 1-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 26% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 26% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Just missed at Rosehill 14 Oct. Ranged up but punctured late this track. Has speed. Right in the mix.
ILB
Jumped at $7.00 and faded to finish 7th last run around here. Won't be far away during the run. Watch betting.
RP
Not beaten too far when seventh of ten last month; others appeal more with this looking like a hot contest.
RSIS
Started at 6/1 and tailed off to finish 7th last time at this venue. Won't be far away during the run. Could feature here.
Career
3: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-1-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 23% in Last 100 Rides
Hot Jockey
Positive
Dylan Gibbons in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 39%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 13%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Wore them down late at Hawkesbury second-up. Dylan Gibbons on again. Added journey should assist. Looks up to these.
ILB
Flew home to win last start at Hawkesbury and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Been in the money each start this preparation but taking on stronger rivals. Marginal chance.
RP
Narrow success in a maiden at Hawkesbury upped to 1m1f when getting off the mark at the third time of asking two weeks ago; might have a say.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last run at Hawkesbury and promising career start. In the top three at every start lately but up against a more competitive field.
Career
14: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1900m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-1-2
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Down In Weight
Positive
Drops 4kg from LS run
AAP
Kept on for the minor spoils in skinny line-up at Newcastle. Strikes a harder race but latest encouraging.
ILB
Strong effort to run into 3rd last run at Newcastle and gets some weight relief. Considering others.
RP
Respectable effort over 1m1½f at Newcastle (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Managed to run into 3rd beaten by 1 1/2L last time at Newcastle and carrying less weight this time.
Career
10: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2007m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-1
Going Soft
5: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 11%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Unable to make an impression this venue. Smoky place prospect at best.
ILB
Started $7.00 and gave away some ground when 5th last run here. Might be ridden for luck.
RP
Not beaten too far when fifth of six over 1m4f here (handicap) 14 days ago; a few rivals look in good form so others make more appeal.
RSIS
Started at 6/1 and faded away to finish 5th last run around here. Prefers to settle towards the tail.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
Key Rider
Positive
Winona Costin 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 14%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Settled back and didn't figure in the 3yo+ Midway (Bm64) at Hawkesbury. First time around Warwick Farm. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Odds of $8.50 and didn't find the line when 8th last start at Hawkesbury but will be aiming for a soft run from the draw.
RP
Held when eighth beaten 6l over 1m1f at Hawkesbury (handicap) 15 days ago; signs of improvement on last two runs; this is competitive and others more likely.
RSIS
Started 15/2 and weakened under pressure when 8th last start at Hawkesbury but gets the perfect draw.