Shortest win price
Hansadios (4)
1.45
Belmont, 5:09 pm AEDT, hosts a Class 1 handicap over 1000m on Good 4 going with fine conditions. This is a modest field, and the market has settled with Hansadios as the shortest-priced runner, followed by Artie's Storm, then Ninetymilestraight and She's Capitana as the next two in the win order. The speed map suggests Hansadios will control the tempo as the leader, with Sharpassa on pace and the rest spread across offpace, offmidfield, and backmarker lanes.
Hansadios is the market's choice, and there is substance to it. The Mitchell Pateman-trained runner won last time at Ascot over 1000m and arrives sharper for that outing. Pateman's stable is performing well, outrunning the market by 85 per cent, and his runners sit at a profitable 55 per cent return on turnover across the past 100 starters. From barrier 5, Hansadios should dictate from the front. Artie's Storm, who sits next in the betting, won at this trip and has a strong synthetic track profile. The Casey-trained runner boasts early speed—an advantage on Belmont's configuration—and was only safely held in a shallow field here last time out. Ninetymilestraight, rated 84, is resuming after 44 weeks away and returns from stronger Stakes company, but the jockey-trainer combo with Jefferson Tsang and T M Andrews are losing form heavily across their last 100 races, and the runner faded towards the finish last start, which raises a flag.
She's Capitana, despite a rating of 100, has battled to convert chances. William Pike takes the mount—the jockey is outperforming his career average by 36 per cent in his last 100 rides—and that is a genuine point in her favour, though her trainer's recent record is struggling at just 6 per cent strike rate. The value leans towards Hansadios or Artie's Storm as the play, with Hansadios marginally preferred given the stable form and the control it should enjoy from the front.
Shortest win price
Hansadios (4)
1.45
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Ninetymilestraight · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Sharpassa · Negative
Jockey Booking
Lucy F Fiore current POT is 10% below Career Avg.
She's Capitana · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 36% in Last 100 Rides
Hansadios · Positive
Stable In Form
Stable going well. Out performing market by 85%
Career
8: 1-4-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Bunbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 1-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1000m
4: 0-2-1
Distance 1300m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-2-0
Going Good
7: 1-4-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Long Break
Negative
Resumes from a 314 day break (> 300 days)
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Resuming (44-weeks). Back from stronger Stakes company. Handy claim but may find the trip a tad sharp.
ILB
First up after 44 weeks and attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 3/4L first up last preparation at Northam. Success in a trial around here on Oct 26th. Watching with interest.
RP
Last of nine in a Group 3 on New Year's Day (Ascot) upped to 1m1f; although no show last time out, she had been running consistently well prior to that and useful in this grade; returning from a layoff here; should not be far away with lower class a definite positive and shown she can win fairly recently.
RSIS
Resuming and ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 3/4L resuming last preparation at Northam. Success in a trial at this track on Oct 26th. Large claim helps.
Career
6: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Track Northam
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
6: 1-2-1
Going Good
5: 1-2-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Lucy F Fiore current POT is 10% below Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
AAP
First-up (14-weeks). Resumes without a trial. Has early speed and gets a tongue-tie. One for exotics fresh in this affair.
ILB
First up from a break of 14 weeks and nice run when 2nd first up last preparation at Northam. Tongue tie go on for the first time. Solid chance.
RP
Not disgraced when eighth of 11 three months ago; shown she can get her head in front so easy to see her making an impression.
RSIS
Resuming and placed 2nd resuming last preparation at Northam. Interesting gear change of tongue strap on first time. Attracts support.
Career
10: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-2-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-1-0
Track Northam
4: 1-2-0
Distance 1000m
7: 1-2-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 1-2-1
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 36% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Key Rider
Positive
William Pike 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 42% Profit on Turnover
Hot Jockey
Positive
William Pike in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 44%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Off pace, unable to muster and only battled home 7th at Northam. Better for the outing and now gets Pike. Worth a look.
ILB
Jumped at $4.00 and weakened to finish 7th last start at Northam. May see an upturn in form and has drawn to do little work. Will run close.
RP
Not beaten that far at Northam over 5½f (handicap) last month; William Pike a good booking; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
Started 3/1 and struggled with the pace when 7th last run at Northam. Is capable of a resurgence and will appreciate a good stall. Possesses very good closing pace. Will show up at the business end.
Career
3: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Ascot
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 85%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 55% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4.5kg weight here
AAP
Brave in defeat after leading at Ascot. Sharper now, well placed to strike.
ILB
Jumped at $11.00 and finished 4th last start at Ascot. Likely to bounce back and dropping in grade. Interesting to see the ear muffs go on for the first time. Value selection.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten 1½l) at Ascot over 5½f (conditions race) last month; just her fourth outing so still early days; form of the trainer is a plus; a major contender if finding her best form.
RSIS
Odds of 10/1 and ran 4th last time at Ascot. Happy to forgive that run and competing at a lower level of competition. Promising career start. Rising in weight. Great chance.
Career
9: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
89
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Belmont
3: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-1-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Taken back and safely held in shallow field this track. Winner this trip and has a strong SP profile of late.
ILB
Was $2.70 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last run at this track. Will be around the mark at good odds.
RP
Producing fairly consistent form; not beaten that far in fourth (3l) over 6f here (handicap) last month; competitive shout as shown some signs of promise.
RSIS
At 7/4 picked up some late ground when 4th last time around here. Worth a lot of thought in this race.
Career
11: 0-2-3
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
3: 0-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-2
Track Northam
2: 0-1-0
Distance 950m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
10: 0-2-3
Going Good
11: 0-2-3
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
In touch but couldn't find anything when pressured at Northam second-up. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Faded to finish 10th last time at Northam.
RP
Stepped up on her last two starts; not disgraced when tenth of 14 in a maiden at Northam 17 days ago; others more appealing.
RSIS
Faded to finish 10th last start at Northam.
Career
7: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
4: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Second campaign (16-weeks). Shown enough on occasions without looking dangerous. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
First up after a break. Started at $21.00 and was well beaten when 9th last run at Pinjarra and back to a shorter distance. Prefer to watch.
RP
Best he's managed so far is fourth from seven career starts; finished ninth of 12 at Pinjarra four months ago in a maiden; he can be taken on.
RSIS
Fresh today after a break. Started 20/1 and was well beaten when 9th last time at Pinjarra and down in distance. Likely to get back in the field.