Shortest win price
Chixfromthestix (2)
2.80
Belmont hosts a 1000m three-year-old handicap in fine conditions and Good 4 going at 5:44 pm AEDT. The win market has Chixfromthestix shortest, followed by God She's Good, Luminous Lil, and Extreme Makeover. This is a bunched race on paper, but form and jockey performance paint a clearer picture. Chixfromthestix brings real credentials: the recent second at Belmont over 1200m on Good 4, a barrier trial showing, and William Pike in the saddle. Pike is outperforming career average expectation by 36 per cent in the last hundred rides—that's a rider booking that carries weight. The form comment flags genuine ability and hard-to-beat credentials at the price.
God She's Good sits second favourite but is worth scrutiny. The stable is underperforming market expectation by 54 per cent, and Luke Fernie is striking at just 6 per cent. A debut second at Northam 29 October shows promise, and the better draw here could help, but the form is slender and the stable pattern is working against the runner. Luminous Lil won on debut at Northam and gets inside the first five in barriers, leading from gate 2. The comment flags gate speed and a soft draw from that win, yet Belmont is an entirely different circuit, the trainer's recent strike rate sits at 8 per cent, and Paul Harvey is flagged as a less suitable booking. Extreme Makeover closed hard at Northam two runs back and is rated 87, showing promise as a closer on this track. The form is building, but Belmont credentials are absent.
Chixfromthestix shaped as the value lean here. First-up from a spell at Belmont—where it has three career runs, one win and a place—against lightly raced three-year-olds, and Pike's recent strike rate lifts the odds. Luminous Lil will likely dictate early pace, supported by Clear Intent and Happy Dance in the Leader speedGroup, giving Chixfromthestix room to locate a trailing spot and hit the line with the top jockey aboard. The risk is the uptake in barrier draw—gate 9 is no gift—but Pike's current form suggests the bookmakers have missed something at the price.
Shortest win price
Chixfromthestix (2)
2.80
Most career wins
Chixfromthestix and Luminous Lil
1 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Leader
Light Of The World · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 46%
Chixfromthestix · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 36% in Last 100 Rides
Luminous Lil · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Calltex · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Career
4: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 46%
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Back for second campaign (18-weeks). Looked in fair order at the trials. Good gate. Looking for more from this gelding this time in. Consider.
ILB
First up and narrowly beaten first up last preparation at Northam. Ran 2nd in a trial at this track on Oct 26th and drawn well. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Beaten just over 5l in sixth over 6f here (handicap) in July; not yet off the mark in four attempts although has finished second; runs for only the second time in a handicap; returns from a break here; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Resuming and right up there resuming last preparation at Northam. Fitter for a trial at this track on Oct 26th and has minimal work to do from the stall. Has some claims.
Career
4: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 1-1-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 36% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
William Pike 44% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 69%
Hot Jockey
Positive
William Pike in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 44%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Lightly raced and showing genuine ability. W Pike key booking. Encouraging latest and looks hard to beat.
ILB
Was outmatched at the end of the race when 2nd beaten by just short of 3 1/2L last time here. Jockey William Pike rates highly aboard. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Fair second of seven over 6f here (handicap) two weeks ago; running in a handicap for just the second time and William Pike a notable booking; clear chance.
RSIS
Grabbed towards the finish when 2nd beaten by nearly 3 1/2L last run at this track. William Pike rates highly. Worth strong consideration.
Career
3: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Northam
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-0-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 32%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Great win from the deep gate at Northam. Good gate speed, soft draw. Warrants attention.
ILB
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last time at Northam and will try to take advantage of the barrier. Should race on the speed. Place at best.
RP
Gained a just over 1l success at Northam last month with God She's Good (runner-up) and Clear Intent (sixth) behind when registering her first success at the third time of asking in a maiden; must go on the shortlist.
RSIS
Rounded them up to win last start at Northam and good career start. Should be going forward early. Can find a nice position from the draw.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Wiser for experience. Not as well drawn this time and reverts to slightly shorter trip. Tricky map.
ILB
Was $9.00 and peaked on the run when 4th last run at Northam and having second race start. Blinkers go on for the first time but rises in weight. Needs to improve.
RP
Not beaten too far (1½l) on her debut at Northam at 8-1 two weeks ago; entitled to have come on for that run.
RSIS
Was 8/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 4th last start at Northam and having second career run. Interesting to see the blinkers go on for the first time.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Northam
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -21% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Had no answers when the pressure went on at Northam debut 29 Oct. May need more racing.
ILB
Odds of $11.00 and struggled with the pace when 6th last run at Northam but was a debutant last start. Interesting gear change of blinkers on first time. Tested here.
RP
Held sixth of ten but was making her first appearance at Northam when 7l off the winner, Luminous Lil at 10-1 two weeks ago; possible improver with outing under her belt although has plenty to find.
RSIS
Was 10/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 6th last time at Northam but fitter for debut run. Blinkers go on for the first time.
Career
2: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-2
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Northam
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-2
Going Good
2: 0-0-2
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Put in some big strides late at Northam at second outing. Sound claims.
ILB
Just missed last start at Northam but goes up in weight. Finishes off strongly. Must respect.
RP
Went down by a neck in a maiden at Northam two weeks ago.
RSIS
Threw down a serious challenge last time at Northam but will have to carry more weight. Has very good closing pace. Will be around the mark.
Career
1: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Northam
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Luke Fernie striking at just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 54%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 52% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Left a decent impression on debut at Northam 29 Oct. Gets a better draw here and can turn the tables.
ILB
Ran on strongly when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Northam and having second career run. Definite winning chance.
RP
Attempting to reverse placings with Luminous Lil at Northam at 7-2 last month; stable has been going through a quiet spell; will need to step up from her racecourse introduction.
RSIS
Good performance to run into 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Northam and was a debutant last start. Win will not surprise.
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Firststart
Top Stable
Positive
G & A Williams performing 31% above market expectation
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 14% POT in L100 Runners
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
AAP
Trials (2:0-1-0). $12k purchase. Out of a half-sister to Listed winner Japhils. Making debut after two lead-up trials. Drawn well and respect C Parnham booking.
ILB
Dubious 3yo having first race start for trainer Grant & Alana Williams. Interesting gear change of tongue tie on first time. Follow the money.
RP
Related to Arguable, winning form over 7f-1m1½f; trainer has enjoyed debutant winners at this course; sole newcomer in the field; should go close as some good aspects to her profile.
RSIS
Dubious 3yo on debut for Grant & Alana Williams. Interesting gear change of tongue strap on first time. Placed 2nd in a trial at Lark Hill on Oct 19th.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -35% POT in their L100 Races
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 8%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 4.5kg weight here
AAP
Made the running but soon off the bit and weakened noticeably this venue. Drops to shorter trip. Appears to need more racing.
ILB
Started at $71.00 and tailed off to finish 13th last time at this track and has to carry more weight this time. Won't be far away during the run. Do not dismiss entirely.
RP
Still looking to open her account after three runs; towards the rear of 16 last month in a maiden; easy enough to take on.
RSIS
At 70/1 didn't find the line when 13th last time at this track and up in weight. Has shown early pace in races to date.
Career
8: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
5: 0-0-0
Track Ascot
3: 0-0-0
Track Belmont
5: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Lisa Staples current POT is 36% below Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 38%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 25% POT in L100 Runners
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 34% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
AAP
Resuming (18-weeks). Form doesn't flatter. Only for the minors here fresh in this company.
ILB
Resuming after a break. Was $101.00 and faded to finish 10th last start at this venue and down in distance. Might have to make up considerable ground. Not interested.
RP
Finished last of ten over 6½f here (conditions race) four months ago; still winless and defeats stacking up (eight on the bounce) and needs to improve on balance of recent form; returns from a layoff here; this looks a decent race so one to tread carefully with.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Odds of 100/1 and weakened under pressure when 10th last start at this venue and will be dropping in distance.