Shortest win price
Hellfighter (5)
2.70
Welcome to Canberra for race six on the card, the Allinsure Plate Class 1 over 1600m. The track is rated a Soft5 under overcast skies, and the win market has established its early order. Looking closely at the top of the betting board, Hellfighter sits as the shortest runner in the market, closely followed by Dunna Runna, Iron Rebel, and The Hard Road rounding out the initial fancies in the win market order. Punters looking for the bold play will want to weigh up the genuine form against some tricky profiling across these leading chances as they prepare to jump at 5:42 pm AEDT.
Delving into the form behind those shorter prices reveals some interesting angles. Hellfighter is racing with consistency, coming off a reasonable effort without seriously threatening in choppy conditions when finishing fifth over 1400m at Taree, preceded by a runner-up performance at Moruya over 1650m, though the long-time maiden status demands respect here in a competitive event. Meanwhile, The Hard Road broke through for a well-deserved win at Queanbeyan over 1460m in maiden grade, racing off the speed and mustering well under Brodie Loy, who takes the reins again here as the stable steps up to the mile with a runner looking fully capable of taking the next step. Dunna Runna arrives with blinkers on for Danielle Seib from barrier eight, looking to bounce back after failing to threaten over 1600m at Orange.
Further down the order, Iron Rebel brings some appealing late sectional qualities to the contest, having recorded the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start when finishing a brave second over 1600m at Orange after showing good speed. Tactical speed will also play a crucial role on this circuit, and with Don't Back Down mapping as the leader from barrier three, early speed advocates will find plenty to like about that setup. The value sits with assessing how these contrasting map profiles and sectionals interact as the field sorts out their positions in the early stages over the mile.
Shortest win price
Hellfighter (5)
2.70
Most career wins
Dunna Runna and The Hard Road
1 each
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Dunna Runna · Negative
Awkward Draw
Would have liked a better draw
The Hard Road · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Hellfighter · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Solar Orbit · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Career
12: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
87
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Sapphire Coast
2: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
8: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Orange over this trip. Distant place hope only.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and just average when 8th last time at Orange. Pierre Boudvillain and Danielle Seib are a duo to watch closely. Always seems to find the line well. Should be in the finish.
RP
Could not manage better than eighth at Orange two weeks ago in a handicap; can be a player at this level; can be in the thick of things.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and well beaten when 8th last run at Orange. Jockey Pierre Boudvillain and trainer Danielle Seib are usually competitive together. Has a great burst of pace late. Serious contender.
Rating · IRD
20
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 38 days
AAP
Now 5 weeks between runs. Failed to threaten this venue over longer test. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Odds of $8.50 and was well beaten when 8th last run at this track but can find a nice position from the draw. Back to a shorter trip.
RSIS
At 15/2 didn't threaten when 8th last time at this venue but can find a nice position from the draw. Dropping in distance.
Career
5: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 1-0-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1460m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 1-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 14% better than Career Avg.
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 20% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Raced off the speed and mustered well to get the money in the Super Mdn at Queanbeyan when in the market. Brodie Loy on again. Looking for a mile now. Looks capable of taking the next step.
ILB
Bold effort when winning last run at Queanbeyan. Chance and can measure up.
RP
Got the job done in a handicap by half a length when opening his account at the fifth time of asking at Queanbeyan last month; seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; big chance.
RSIS
Picked up late to win last time at Queanbeyan. Has claims.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
Responded well from back half to get the prize this venue over today's trip. Steps up in class now but looks the testing material.
ILB
Romped home to win last start at the track and on an upward trajectory in recent races.
RSIS
Reeled them in to win last time at this track and showing improvement in recent outings.
Career
15: 0-6-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Sapphire Coast
1: 0-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
2: 0-1-1
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1280m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
5: 0-3-0
Going Good
5: 0-2-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-2-0
Going Soft
8: 0-2-2
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Reasonable effort without seriously threatening in choppy conditions at Taree. Long time in the maiden ranks but has a big say here.
ILB
Started $5.00 and ran past a few when 5th last time at Taree and will be aiming for a soft run from the draw. Tough competitor.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten 1½l) over 7f at Taree (maiden) two weeks ago; has found improvement of late but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 15; passed over as regularly been coming up a bit short lately.
RSIS
Started 4/1 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last run at Taree and drawn by the rails. Should go well.
Career
14: 0-1-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Goulburn
2: 0-0-1
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Going Good
7: 0-1-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Picked off late this track over today's trip. Lacks appeal here.
ILB
Started $81.00 and ran 5th last time at the track. Yet to fire this preparation with no placings from 6 runs. Likely to get back in the run. Rough chance today.
RP
Creditable effort to finish fifth, beaten half a length last month fitted with cheekpieces (split Morosini and Nutbush Dancer) in a maiden; yet to open his account after 14 starts; facing a testing assignment and others more likely.
RSIS
Was 80/1 and came in 5th last time here. Yet to fire recently with no placings from 6 runs. Might have to make up considerable ground.
Career
6: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Gunnedah
1: 0-0-0
Track Kempsey
1: 0-1-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Unknown
1: 0-1-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Trailed pace and kicked strongly this track over longer assignment. Maps to get a sweet run. Coming back in distance. Sound claims.
ILB
Threw down a serious challenge last time at the track but coming back in distance. Likely to be well placed early. Slight prospect.
RP
Went off 80-1 when good runner-up last month upped to 1m2f; has shown some recent improvement; has claims if building on promise shown last time.
RSIS
Close up last start at this track but down in distance. Displays good tactical pace.
Career
7: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Tuncurry
1: 0-1-0
Track Illawarra Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
AAP
Void of early speed but she let down strongly Class 1 company at Taree over this trip. This looks a nice race for the mare.
ILB
Flashed home late into 3rd last start at Taree.
RP
Has found improvement of late; finishing third was a good effort two weeks ago (Taree).
RSIS
Good run when placing 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last run at Taree.
Career
4: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Orange
1: 0-1-0
Track Illawarra Grange
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer SR
Negative
Gary Portelli striking at just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 43%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Brave after showing speed at Orange when second-up. All the better, makes a strong case in this field.
ILB
Close to claiming the win last time at Orange and gets a favourable alley. Has some claims.
RP
Beaten a neck in a handicap at Orange two weeks ago; lightly raced (running for just the fifth time).
RSIS
Narrowly beaten last time at Orange and drawn nicely. Has some claims.
Career
6: 0-0-3
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
3: 0-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-2
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 36% lower than Career Avg.
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 85%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Out the back, closed with raking strides in the Mdn Plate this venue over today's trip. Locally trained but has a tricky draw. Strikes a harder race.
ILB
Close to claiming the win last run around here. Has been a model of consistency since coming back from a spell. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; ahead of Solar Orbit and Nutbush Dancer when third (beaten a neck) 11 days ago in a maiden.
RSIS
Narrowly denied a win last run here. In good form lately. Watch the betting.
Career
6: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-0
Track Canterbury
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished within striking distance Mdn Plate this course over this journey at double-figure odds. Can't enthuse.
ILB
At $19.00 couldn't stay in touch when 6th last time at this venue. Watch betting.
RP
Stepped up on her last two starts; respectable effort in defeat (beaten three-quarters of a length) last month in a maiden; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so has some questions to answer.
RSIS
At 18/1 faded to finish 6th last time around here.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Trials (3:0-0-0). Early trial form just fair with latest an improvement but this looks a tough debut test. Others profiling stronger.
ILB
3yo by Maurice having first race appearance for trainer Matthew Smith. Watch the market moves.
RP
Having first race; conceding experience to all her rivals; in the mix as some good aspects to her profile.
RSIS
Initial race appearance 3yo by Maurice for trainer Matthew Smith.
Career
13: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Queanbeyan
1: 0-0-1
Track Canterbury
2: 0-0-0
Track Bathurst
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1880m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
10: 0-0-1
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 11%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Backing up quickly. Never in the call at Warwick Farm. Usually gets back. Best viewed as a rough place hope.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Started $201.00 and below par performance when 10th last run at Warwick Farm. Looks highly doubtful.
RP
Finished last of ten (Warwick Farm) a week ago in a maiden; yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 13; a lot on her plate here and she can be taken on.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Odds of 200/1 and performed below standard when 10th last time at Warwick Farm.