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Darwin (NT) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Darwin (NT), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 14 NovDarwin (NT)Change

Race 4 — Vale Philip Neck Hcp (76) 1100m · jumps

Race notes

  • 0 - 76,0 - 76 HCP,Restricted 76
  • GOOD
  • Fine
  • 8 runners

Shortest win price

Steamy Mist (6)

1.36

Most career wins

Flying Annie

8-10-9 from 41 starts

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 1Tartaglia

Midfield

  • 5Orion The Hunter

Offpace

  • 6Steamy Mist
  • 3Cavern

Onpace

  • 8Physical Graffiti

Leader

  • 2Devils Delight
  • 4Flying Annie
  • 7Bruno Bruno

  • Tartaglia · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -48% POT in their L100 Races

  • Devils Delight · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%

  • Cavern · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Flying Annie · Negative

    Jockey Booking

    Wayne Davis current POT is 27% below Career Avg.

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1TartagliaJ: Paul Shiers·T: Chloe Baxter260.5kg7 6 1 4 520: 3-2-1$15.00$2.50

Career

20: 3-2-1

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    7: 0-1-1

  • Second-up

    5: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 1-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Rosehill

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Grafton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    4: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1250m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    12: 1-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    4: 2-0-0

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-1-1

Last starts

  1. 5Fannie Bay1200m24 Oct 2026 · BM76 · GOOD33.38L
  2. 4Grafton1175m16 July 2026 · CTRYASSOC - CL6 · GOOD31.45L
  3. 1Gosford1100m9 July 2026 · Benchmark 64 · HEAVY10-1.6
  4. 6Taree1250m5 June 2026 · BM82 · HEAVY83L
  5. 7Warwick Farm1100m20 May 2026 · 3&4Y BM64 · HEAVY810.6L
  6. 2Port Macquarie1000m26 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)1.4L
  7. 8Randwick1200m27 Dec 2025 · 3UP CL3 HCP · GOOD42.4L
  8. 9Eagle Farm1200m8 Nov 2025 · BM70 · GOOD34L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -48% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

  • Draw Suits

    Positive

    Well drawn inside

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Finished it off only fairly this venue for new trainer following market easing. Will be fitter second-up. Two of his wins were this distance. Warrants attention.

ILB

Started $7.50 and didn't attack the line when 5th last time at this track. Should improve here and gets a favourable draw. Definite contender.

RP

Not beaten too far when fifth of six here over 6f (handicap) last month on debut for this trainer; useful at this level.

RSIS

Started at 13/2 and gave away some ground when 5th last start around here. Looking past the last run and has a positive draw. Capable of winning this.

2Devils DelightJ: Jarrod Todd·T: G Clarke858.5kg6 2 10 4 632: 7-6-3$20.00$2.90

Career

32: 7-6-3

Rating · IRD

86

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    4: 1-0-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-3-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Pakenham Synthetic

    2: 0-1-1

  • Track Mornington

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Sale

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    4: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1100m

    12: 4-2-1

  • Distance 1200m

    16: 3-3-2

  • Going Good

    22: 5-3-2

  • Going Heavy

    3: 1-1-0

  • Going Soft

    5: 1-1-0

Last starts

  1. 6Fannie Bay1100m17 Oct 2026 · 0 - 76 · GOOD6.09L
  2. 4Fannie Bay1200m5 Sept 2026 · HCP · GOOD33.3L
  3. 10Fannie Bay1200m1 Aug 2026 · HCP · GOOD315.5L
  4. 2Fannie Bay1100m25 July 2026 · HCP · GOOD0.7L
  5. 6Fannie Bay1200m13 June 2026 · HCP · GOOD6.2L
  6. 2Fannie Bay1100m9 May 2026 · BM76 · GOOD3.5L
  7. 1Fannie Bay1100m18 Oct 2025 · 0 - 76 · GOOD-1.2
  8. 2Fannie Bay1200m6 Sept 2025 · HCP · GOOD5.8L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Ordinary performance in small field this track over today's trip. Capable but needs to turn it around quickly.

ILB

Odds of $5.50 and average performance when 6th last time around here. Expected to be flashing home. Recent form of the stable is strong. Significant value and can go close.

RP

Beaten sixth of seven last month, behind Flying Annie; has a good record at this venue, including four course-and-distance wins but good and bad recent runs found on his CV; probably unlikely to trouble the principals as this looks a decent race.

RSIS

Odds of 9/2 and subpar when 6th last start at this venue. Will be hitting the line strongly. Gary Clarke stable are in good form of late. Looks like solid value.

3CavernJ: Danielle Hirini·T: D Leech757.5kg3 12 5 1 18: 3-0-1$9.00$1.85

Career

8: 3-0-1

Rating · IRD

80

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 2-0-1

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Pakenham Synthetic

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    4: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 2-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    5: 3-0-1

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Fannie Bay1100m3 Nov 2026 · CL2 · GOOD-0.3
  2. 1Fannie Bay1100m3 Aug 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD-0.8
  3. 5Pakenham Synthetic1000m15 June 2026 · BM62 · SYNTHETIC6.5L
  4. 12Seymour1000m21 May 2026 · 0 - 62 · SOFT610.4L
  5. 3Sale1200m3 May 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD31.4L
  6. 3Caulfield Heath850m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.2L
  7. 6Sandown1200m10 Dec 2025 · 3Y BM64 · GOOD43.4L
  8. 4Caulfield1000m12 Nov 2025 · 3UP BM62 HCP · SOFT63.4L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 13% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Awkward Draw

    Negative

    May find this draw awkward

Comments

AAP

Third outing for new trainer/ this region. Just got the nod in this venue first up. Unbeaten at track and distance. Can make his presence felt again if things pan out.

ILB

Ran home strongly to win last run at this track but facing stiffer opposition. Carrying less weight this time. Sharp improvement needed.

RP

On a hat-trick and yet to taste defeat over this C&D, winning on all two attempts; recorded second C&D win 11 days ago; big player.

RSIS

Was eating up the ground late to win last time around here but facing a stronger class. Gets some weight relief.

4Flying AnnieJ: Wayne Davis·T: G Clarke457.5kg5 3 4 2 441: 8-10-9$16.00$2.60

Career

41: 8-10-9

Rating · IRD

80

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    7: 2-1-2

  • Second-up

    6: 0-1-2

  • Third-up

    5: 2-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-3-1

  • Track Warwick

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Queanbeyan

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Fannie Bay

    21: 4-5-3

  • Distance 900m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    12: 3-2-2

  • Distance 1050m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    30: 7-6-5

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-0-2

Last starts

  1. 4Fannie Bay1100m17 Oct 2026 · 0 - 76 · GOOD2L
  2. 2Fannie Bay1100m3 Oct 2026 · BMNT 73 · GOOD0.28L
  3. 4Fannie Bay1000m19 Sept 2026 · BM76 · GOOD5.67L
  4. 3Fannie Bay1000m29 Aug 2026 · BM76 · GOOD4.4L
  5. 5Fannie Bay1000m3 Aug 2026 · HCP · GOOD2.3L
  6. 7Fannie Bay1100m8 July 2026 · BMNT · GOOD313.6L
  7. 5Fannie Bay1000m20 June 2026 · HCP · GOOD6.9L
  8. 3Fannie Bay1200m25 Oct 2025 · BM76 · GOOD7.3L

Insights

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Wayne Davis current POT is 27% below Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -77% POT in their L100 Races

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 49% in L100 rides

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%

  • Slow Early LS

    Negative

    Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg

Comments

AAP

Fresh. Just missed at Fannie Bay 3 Oct. Effort tapered late after showing pace in the small field this course. Sterner task awaits.

ILB

At $4.40 finished 4th last time at this track. Should be going forward early. Have to respect the recent stable form. Can run into the placings.

RP

Respectable effort when fourth last month; a multiple C&D winner; hard enough to fancy as not in the habit of winning recently.

RSIS

Started 10/3 and came in 4th last time at the track. Has shown early pace in races to date. Gary Clarke stable are on a hot streak.

5Orion The HunterJ: Vanessa Arnott·T: Jason Manning357.5kg2 4 1 3 1030: 7-2-4$19.00$2.80

Career

30: 7-2-4

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    7: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    5: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    5: 2-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-1-1

  • Track Flemington

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Mornington

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1013m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    4: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1112m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    4: 3-0-0

  • Going Firm

    1: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 10Fannie Bay1300m29 July 2026 · 0 - 76 · GOOD8.5L
  2. 3Fannie Bay1300m4 July 2026 · 0 - 76 · GOOD5.9L
  3. 1Fannie Bay1300m13 June 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD-0.4
  4. 4Fannie Bay1100m9 May 2026 · BM76 · GOOD4.1L
  5. 2Fannie Bay1200m27 Mar 2026 · 0 - 70 · FIRM0.2L
  6. 1Fannie Bay1300m4 Oct 2025 · 0 - 70 · GOOD-2.3
  7. 2Katherine1100m16 Aug 2025 · 0 - 70 · GOOD5.4L
  8. 3Fannie Bay1200m2 Aug 2025 · 0 - 66 · GOOD2L

Insights

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 8%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%

  • Trainer ROI

    Negative

    Trainers runners currently losing 44% Profit on Turnover

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Needs To Imp

    Negative

    Finished towards the tail last start

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

Comments

AAP

First-up (15-weeks). Ran a bottler in Restricted 70 company first-up last prep. One for multiples fresh.

ILB

First up and right in contention first up last preparation around here. Might be ridden for luck. Cannot have under these circumstances.

RP

Career record shows his ability to win (wins-runs record of 7-30); tenth of 12 over 6½f here (handicap) in July; this looks a fair heat so looks risky.

RSIS

Resuming and right up there resuming last preparation around here. Expected to settle towards the tail.

6Steamy MistJ: Billy Cray·T: Tommy Logan156.5kg8 3 11 1 114: 4-1-2$1.36$1.02

Career

14: 4-1-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 1-0-1

  • Third-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Pakenham

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Wangaratta

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Fannie Bay

    2: 2-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    10: 2-1-2

  • Distance 1012m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    8: 4-0-1

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 1Fannie Bay1100m3 Nov 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD-5.5
  2. 1Fannie Bay1000m17 Oct 2026 · CL2 · GOOD-2.47
  3. 11Bendigo1100m5 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY99.3L
  4. 3Wangaratta1000m14 June 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY100.5L
  5. 8Caulfield Heath1000m20 May 2026 · BM66 · SOFT66L
  6. 1Werribee1012m24 Apr 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD4-1
  7. 4Warracknabeal1000m4 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.5L
  8. 3Ballarat1000m20 Mar 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD31.5L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 171%

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Tommy Logan in good form, out performing market 22%

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 12%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Margin LS

    Positive

    Won by a big margin last start

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Track Stats

    Positive

    Excels at this track

Comments

AAP

Third run now in new stable/region. Shooting for hat-trick this venue. Streeted them this course when second-up. Can back it up.

ILB

Dictated terms in front to win by a margin of 5 1/2L last run here and drawn well. Will be fighting out the finish.

RP

Looked good when winning by 6l last week; admirable career strike-rate (four from 14 to date) and bidding for hat-trick; rates a likely contender.

RSIS

Went to the front and never looked back when winning by a margin of 5 1/2L last start at the track and gets a favourable draw. Should progress and will be close.

7Bruno BrunoJ: Stan Tsaikos·T: Ms T Halter656.5kg4 2 2 6 324: 6-4-5$11.00$2.15

Career

24: 6-4-5

Rating · IRD

87

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 1-0-1

  • Second-up

    4: 1-0-2

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-2-0

  • Track Goulburn

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Hawkesbury

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1300m

    8: 4-1-0

  • Distance 1350m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-0-2

  • Going Good

    20: 6-3-5

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 3Fannie Bay1600m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD33.46L
  2. 6Fannie Bay1300m3 Oct 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD6.67L
  3. 2Fannie Bay1200m25 Sept 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD33.7L
  4. 2Fannie Bay1300m5 Sept 2026 · BM76 · GOOD31.5L
  5. 4Fannie Bay1300m1 Aug 2026 · BM76 · GOOD33.9L
  6. 3Fannie Bay1100m18 July 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD5.3L
  7. 3Fannie Bay1100m4 July 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD1.1L
  8. 1Fannie Bay1300m14 Mar 2026 · 0 - 70 · FAST-0.8

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Positive

    Stan Tsaikos 23% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Stan Tsaikos in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 23%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Dist Drop

    Negative

    Distance decrease from last start

  • Track Exp

    Positive

    Knows this track well

Comments

AAP

Gave good sight filling the minors this track over longer test. Drops to shorter trip. Goes into wider exotics.

ILB

Amongst the placegetters when 3rd last run at this track but down in distance. Won't be far away during the run. Running with confidence since coming back from a break. Strong claims in this.

RP

Six wins from 19 here; not disgraced in third over 1m here (handicap) last month; probably unlikely to trouble the principals.

RSIS

Competitive effort when 3rd last run at the track but will be facing a significant drop in distance. Likely to be well placed early. Must be considered here.

8Physical GraffitiJ: Dakota-Lee Gillett·T: G Clarke556.5kg5 2 1 3 120: 5-1-4$13.00$2.30

Career

20: 5-1-4

Rating · IRD

73

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 1-0-3

  • Second-up

    4: 1-0-1

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Randwick

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Gosford

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Fannie Bay

    13: 4-1-3

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 0-0-2

  • Distance 1100m

    5: 0-0-2

  • Distance 1200m

    10: 5-1-0

  • Going Good

    14: 4-1-3

  • Going Heavy

    2: 1-0-1

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Fannie Bay1200m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 64 · GOOD3-1.13
  2. 3Fannie Bay1100m5 Sept 2026 · 0 - 70 · GOOD32L
  3. 1Fannie Bay1200m9 Jan 2026 · 0 - 64 · GOOD-0.4
  4. 2Fannie Bay1200m28 Nov 2025 · 0 - 64 · GOOD2.4L
  5. 5Fannie Bay1100m18 Oct 2025 · 0 - 76 · GOOD3.1L
  6. 6Fannie Bay1300m26 Sept 2025 · 0 - 64 · GOOD13.4L
  7. 1Fannie Bay1200m23 Aug 2025 · BM54 HCP · GOOD3-0.3
  8. 6Fannie Bay1300m19 July 2025 · 0 - 62 · GOOD12.1L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 512%

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Form 3rd Up

    Positive

    Has won 1 from 2 when third up

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

  • Consistent

    Positive

    Showing up at the business end

  • Down In Weight

    Positive

    Drops 4kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Really gutsy performance on the speed this track second-up. Strips even fitter. Usually performs well here. Back in top form and looks hard to beat again.

ILB

Rocketed home when winning last start at this track but racing in stronger company. Will be positive in the run early. Gary Clarke stable are running hot lately. Few more classier types in this race.

RP

Got the job done by 1l here over 6f (handicap) last month; multiple course winner; likely to be in contention.

RSIS

Flew home to win last time at this venue but facing a stronger group of contenders. Should come to hand quickly. Have to respect the recent stable form.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.

Past meetings

  • Tue 3 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 6 races
  • Sat 24 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 5 races
  • Sat 17 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 6 races
  • Sat 3 Oct, 10:00 am AEST · 5 races
  • Fri 25 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 7 races
  • Sat 19 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 4 races
  • Sat 5 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 6 races