Shortest win price
Good'N'You (7)
3.20
The Gong Striker Sam Goodman Handicap runs at Illawarra Grange over 1200 metres on a soft track under overcast skies at 5:45 pm AEDT. Good'N'You heads the market from Marchon and Captivating Tycoon, with Time To Dance fourth and Harry's Halo fifth. The early battle will pit Marchon and Portico on pace against a midfield cluster including Time To Dance, Captivating Tycoon, The Force Awakens and Li'L Grug, while Harry's Halo and Good'N'You sit offpace with Arato backmarking. The condition suits runners with soft-track experience, and the 1200 metres is sharp enough to reward honest speed and finishing power across this Class 1 field.
Good'N'You's market position is worth scrutiny. The form reads strong—a two-length second at Newcastle in Class 1 on identical soft going three starts back, chased hard at Beaumont, and a handy gate three with a 58-kilogram impost. The AAP comment flags a win close, and the rating of 95 suggests real substance. A rider change to Lee Magorrian and a combo that's struggling create some doubt, but the recent form and class fit argue this horse shapes as a major player. Marchon, meanwhile, drops into a suitable grade and knows this track. Out of the placings last time at Wyong off a long absence, better conditioned now, Marchon rates 100 and carries 60 kilograms from barrier eight—a touch of weight to overcome, yet the experience here and the form progression merit respect. Captivating Tycoon was three lengths away first-up at Kembla Grange and rates 94; the outing will have sharpened it, and this is a genuine danger.
Time To Dance offers a contrarian angle. The narrow maiden win at Hawkesbury off a lengthy absence was impressive—a raking drive in the final bounds—and the fast finishing sectionals back a finishing horse. Barrier seven is workable, Rory Hutchings is in the saddle, and the jump to Class 1 is a clear step, yet the form record and the rating of 84 sit below Marchon and Good'N'You. The opinion here tilts toward Good'N'You to reward the market's faith, with Marchon the place claim for value-minded punters unfazed by the weight and the outside gate.
Shortest win price
Good'N'You (7)
3.20
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Marchon · Positive
Track Exp
Knows this track well
Time To Dance · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Arato · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Harry's Halo · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Career
15: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Canberra
2: 0-2-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
4: 1-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
5: 1-0-0
Distance 1210m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 0-1-1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made running, no answer when challenged but held on for third in the Hcp (C1) at Kembla Grange. Draw makes the job harder but a Winner this trip. Could add some value to exotics.
ILB
Although fading at the finish still grabbed 3rd last run at Kembla Grange. Likely to be well placed early.
RP
Not beaten far when third over 7f at Kembla Grange (handicap) last week; you have to go back a fair way to find his only win; been struggling to get his head in front recently so has questions to answer.
RSIS
Displayed a strong effort throughout the race when 3rd last time at Kembla Grange. Displays good tactical pace.
Career
8: 1-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Rosehill
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-1
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Soft
5: 1-2-0
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Out of the placings but still acquitted himself well at Wyong off long break. Better conditioned. Can make his presence felt with even luck.
ILB
Jumped at $3.00 and came in 4th last run at Wyong. May see an upturn in form. Strong chance today.
RP
Finished fourth 16 days ago albeit only beaten just under 2l at Wyong; normally pretty consistent; is passed over given many of his rivals are in good form.
RSIS
Odds of 2/1 and finished 4th last run at Wyong. Can show a better performance this time. Should go well.
Career
4: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 1-0-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-1
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 1-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Let down with a raking drive to get up in final bounds at Hawkesbury after lengthy absence. Goes to a Class 1 now and well in the mix.
ILB
Ran over the top of them when winning last run at Hawkesbury and promising career start. On an upward trajectory in recent races. Facing stiffer opposition. Can surprise at a nice price.
RP
Not fancied in the betting (16-1) when a narrow winner over 5½f at Hawkesbury (handicap) last month; can be in the mix.
RSIS
Rocketed home when winning last run at Hawkesbury and showing consistent performance in races. Stepping up to a higher level. Form has been improving over recent runs.
Career
5: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
2: 1-0-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track Newcastle
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 79%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Back for second campaign (14-weeks). Placed at Hawkesbury on debut last campaign while warmed up with 2 trials. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
First up and ran on hard when winning first up last preparation at Gosford. Fitter for a trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 20th. Might be ridden for luck. Unlikely to go close.
RP
Held when fourth beaten 7l over 5½f at Wyong (handicap) in August; big chance if reproducing form of his win three starts back.
RSIS
Resuming and ran on strongly to win resuming last preparation at Gosford. Finished 3rd in a trial at Hawkesbury on Oct 20th. Prefers to settle towards the rear.
Career
8: 1-3-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-1-0
Track Kembla Grange
2: 0-1-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
7: 1-2-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 1-3-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 10%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 52% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
AAP
First-up (22-weeks). Just managed the one outing last prep. Decent alley. Not out of this fresh.
ILB
Fresh today after a break. Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last start at Wyong. Has not placed in multiple trials. Would not recommend.
RP
Normally pretty consistent and has taken a step forward the last twice; fair effort when beaten 3l, finishing third of seven at Wyong in June; layoff to overcome; should not be ruled out if in the same mood as when achieving most recent success.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Made considerable ground when 3rd beaten by 3L last start at Wyong. Unplaced in all trials.
Career
8: 1-1-3
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-1
Track Warwick Farm
1: 0-1-0
Track Wyong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-1-2
Distance 1100m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1150m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-1-3
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 54%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Jean Van Overmeire in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 7%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 35 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
5 weeks since last run. Kept coming and just fell short at Kembla Grange. Winner at only other start on the Illawarra Grange track and this looks very achievable.
ILB
Zipped home into 3rd beaten by 1/2L last start at Kembla Grange. Going well this preparation. Has won 1 from 2 runs on a soft track. Limited possibility.
RP
Missed out by half a length over 5f at Kembla Grange (handicap) last month; has won previously at this course; running consistently; must be respected.
RSIS
Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last time at Kembla Grange. Exhibiting good form since coming back from a break.
Career
6: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-0-2
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Hawkesbury
1: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
4: 1-1-2
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1250m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -78% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
A win looks close. Chased in a good effort at Beaumont. Handy gate and a nice weight drop. Major player here.
ILB
Finished strongly when 2nd beaten by 1L last time at Newcastle. Performing honestly since coming back from a spell. Winning potential.
RP
Running consistently; near miss when favourite over 6½f at Beaumont (handicap) last month.
RSIS
Caught the eye when 2nd last run at Newcastle. Looking sharp on the track recently. Will be competitive.
Career
8: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
94
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
5: 1-1-1
Track Newcastle
2: 0-0-0
Track Gosford
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 1-1-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
R & W Freedman striking at just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Made steady inroads but the winner was out of reach at Kembla Grange first up. Better for the outing and among the dangers again.
ILB
Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd beaten by 2L last time at Kembla Grange. Will go close today.
RP
Good effort when 2l third (Kembla Grange) last month.
RSIS
Finished with intent when 3rd last start at Kembla Grange. Will go close here.
Career
7: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Canberra
2: 1-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-0
Track Nowra
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Started $7 when sent forward and narrowly prevailed Mdn first run back. Just out of his maiden and facing tougher challenge here.
ILB
Charged home to win last start at Canberra and has a good draw. Large claim helps but competing at a higher grade. Not ready for this level.
RP
Seems to have stepped up on previous form the last twice; broke his duck at the seventh attempt at Canberra over 5f (handicap) last week; despite that Canberra success, has some questions to answer.
RSIS
Picked up nicely to win last time at Canberra and has a good draw. Large claim helps but challenged by more formidable competitors.
Career
23: 1-2-3
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Canberra
1: 0-0-0
Track Kembla Grange
20: 1-1-3
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
6: 0-1-1
Distance 1080m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
6: 0-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Winless since 11 Dec. Finished out the back at Kembla Grange as a despised outsider. Needs to lift to figure. On trust.
ILB
At $101.00 disappointing run when 10th last time at Kembla Grange but drawn the rails. Poppie Gorton provides some weight relief. Can't have on what it has been showing.
RP
Finished last of ten over 5f at Kembla Grange (handicap) last month; only once has he got into the winners' enclosure and form has an up and down look to it; may have to settle for supporting role as this looks a fair heat.
RSIS
Was 100/1 and clearly outclassed when 10th last start at Kembla Grange but gets a favourable draw. The large claim from Poppie Gorton should help.