Shortest win price
The Cunning Fox (4)
2.40
Geelong's track is rated good four with overcast conditions as the field contests the Ladbrokes Top 2/3/4 betting handicap over 3800 metres at 12:40 pm AEDT. This is a benchmark 78 assignment for three-year-olds and up. The Cunning Fox sits shortest in the market, followed by Federer, then Diwali and Genrichero. The field splits into distinct speed shapes: Eye For An Eye and Haiiro will contest the lead, Federer and The Cunning Fox sit midfield, while Farag and Diwali are backmarkers. Genrichero, Topspin, Benbulben and Phoenician will race offpace.
The Cunning Fox is the hard-backed choice for good reason. The pairing of Tom Ryan and Patrick Payne are outperforming market expectations by 83 per cent, and that stable is running at 19 per cent profit on turnover across the last hundred runners. Last start at Echuca over 3200 metres on soft going, the gelding notched a game win on the speed, and the form suggests genuine appetite for this extended 3800-metre test. Rating of 97 and a career strike rate that includes 14 wins from 46 starts frames a horse with genuine class. Federer comes next in the market with a rating of 100, though the trainer's recent form is concerning—runners from the stable are underperforming market by 29 per cent. That said, Federer showed promise with a placing at Caulfield over 2400 metres just prior, and the comment notes the horse is from a leading camp. Diwali and Darryl Horner have a strong argument. Horner is running 30 per cent above market expectations in the last 100 rides, and the horse has been freshened. Last time out at Caulfield over 2400 metres Diwali settled back and didn't threaten, but the rating of 93 and the fact this jumps to 3800 metres fits the profile the form suggests.
Eye For An Eye lines up as a leader and maps well at Geelong, outperforming market by 9 per cent in map position terms. That positional advantage is genuine over the 3800-metre trip, though the jockey-trainer combination is recording losses of 100 per cent. Farag has early speed, a marked advantage around this circuit, and the combination with William Mc Carthy and Aaron Purcell is outperforming market by 59 per cent—a signal worth backing. Genrichero has been backed up quickly and rises to the 3800-metre trip for the first time, a genuine query, though recent placings at Warrnambool and Mornington suggest the horse is settling into preparation. The value sits with The Cunning Fox at short odds given the stable's current execution and recent winning form.
Shortest win price
The Cunning Fox (4)
2.40
Most career wins
The Cunning Fox
14-4-3 from 46 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Farag · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 59%
Diwali · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Federer · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
The Cunning Fox · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 83%
Career
48: 10-4-5
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-1-0
Third-up
4: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 0-1-2
Track CurrentTrack
3: 2-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Track Hamilton
3: 0-1-1
Distance 2100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
7: 1-0-2
Distance 2520m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
11: 1-3-1
Going Soft
17: 5-1-2
Going Good
20: 4-0-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 59%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Out Of Form
Negative
Needs to try and find some form
AAP
Ridden cold and never in the picture at Flemington. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Lacklustre showing when 14th last time at Flemington but competing in a lower grade. William Mccarthy and Aaron Purcell enjoy a high success rate together. Should get going late. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Beaten 11l at Flemington last Tuesday upped to 1m6f; has won here; can make his presence felt.
RSIS
Below standard effort when 14th last time at Flemington but competing at a lower class. William Mccarthy and Aaron Purcell are consistently competitive when paired. Will be motoring home late. Not at all out of this race.
Career
27: 4-2-1
Rating · IRD
93
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
6: 1-2-0
Track Moe
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2200m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 2800m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 3000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
6: 0-0-0
Going Good
20: 4-2-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 26% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Darryl Horner 30% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 50%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 32% POT in L100 Runners
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Freshened. Settled back and didn't figure at Caulfield. Can improve up in trip.
ILB
Average at best when 8th last time at Caulfield but facing a weaker group of contenders. Shows very good finishing speed. Going up in distance. Win will not surprise.
RP
Beaten 7l into eighth over 1m4f at Caulfield (handicap, split Federer and Farag) four weeks ago; grade looks suitable; should not be far away.
RSIS
Below par when 8th last run at Caulfield but facing a weaker grade. Has a nice turn of foot. Rising in distance. Forward showing expected.
Career
17: 3-2-3
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-1-1
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
6: 0-1-0
Track Sandown
3: 1-0-2
Distance 1800m
5: 0-0-2
Distance 2000m
5: 1-1-0
Distance 2400m
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
8: 0-0-3
Going Good
9: 3-2-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Not disgraced at Flemington at $13. Query at the extended trip but in leading camp. Keep safe.
ILB
Jumped at $13.00 and lost momentum when 7th last time at Flemington and has been racing in stronger company. Steven Pateman is a pivotal booking. Gets a solid chance here.
RP
He meets the required standard ability wise; not beaten too far when seventh at Flemington when dropped to 1m2f last week; possibilities as shown promise on occasion.
RSIS
Started 12/1 and was getting tired late when 7th last time at Flemington and matched against less formidable competition. More confidence with jockey Steven Pateman guiding the horse. Will attract plenty of interest.
Career
46: 14-4-3
Rating · IRD
97
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-1-1
Third-up
5: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
4: 2-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Track Benalla
1: 1-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2250m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
5: 0-1-1
Distance 2500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
22: 4-4-1
Going Heavy
7: 3-0-0
Going Soft
17: 7-0-2
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 83%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 19% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Game win on the speed at Echuca. Going great guns and stays as a major threat.
ILB
Dashed home to win last time at Echuca and form has been improving over recent runs. Tom Ryan does know the horse very well. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
First success for some time scoring narrowly at Echuca last week upped to 2m; proven that he knows how to get his head in front (seeking a 15th career win); looks likely to be involved.
RSIS
Ran home strongly to win last run at Echuca and form has been improving over recent runs. Jockey Tom Ryan has a high strike rate on board. Should put in a decent effort.
Career
28: 5-2-3
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
4: 0-0-1
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1715m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2040m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
14: 2-1-0
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
11: 2-1-3
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Track Stats
Positive
Excels at this track
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
On a quick back-up. Failed to threaten at Ararat. Capable but needs to turn it around quickly.
ILB
Backing up quickly. Jumped at $7.50 and clearly outclassed when 12th last run at Ararat. Should come to hand quickly. Can show up in this at odds.
RP
Tailed off over 2m4f at Ararat (handicap) at the weekend (saddle slipped); track has proven suitable before; subpar since successful in a handicap at Pakenham in April; makes limited appeal with several rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Racing on a quick back up. Started 13/2 and was ordinary when 12th last run at Ararat. Displays good tactical pace.
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Offpace
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
AAP
Found enough to place in small field at Echuca. Suited by the longer assignment now. Not out of this.
ILB
Honest race when 3rd last start at Echuca.
RSIS
Tidy run when 3rd last time at Echuca.
Career
36: 4-5-8
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2445m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2500m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
23: 3-2-6
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
10: 1-2-2
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Racing Strongly
Positive
Racing in great shape
AAP
Backing up quickly. Rise to 3800m a new challenge. Well into preparation now, again one for multiples.
ILB
On a short turnaround. Couldn't maintain the momentum throughout when 3rd last run at Warrnambool and stepping up in distance. Should be rolling forward early from the wide gate. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Minor honours in a handicap last week (13-8) when back to 1m3½f (Warrnambool) on debut for this trainer; regularly been coming up a bit short lately so not easy to fancy.
RSIS
On a short turnaround. Big effort to finish 3rd last start at Warrnambool and rising in trip. Has the pace to overcome the wide stall.
Career
10: 2-2-2
Rating · IRD
74
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 1-1-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
3: 1-0-0
Track Stawell
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2700m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2800m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 2-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Fitness
Positive
At peak fitness backing up
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Backing up quickly. Got the wobbles late after leading at Warrnambool. First try at 3800m. One for exotics.
ILB
Backs up quickly. Odds of $15.00 and couldn't finish off when 5th last start at Warrnambool and facing an increased distance. Has the speed to overcome the wide gate. Will need to elevate.
RP
Form has an up and down look to it; close up behind Genrichero when fifth at Warrnambool over 1m3½f (handicap) last Friday; meeting some horses in good form and not one to rely on.
RSIS
On a quick turnaround. Was 14/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 5th last start at Warrnambool and racing over more ground.
Career
34: 3-5-5
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Terang
2: 0-0-1
Track Horsham
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 2400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
12: 1-1-1
Going Heavy
6: 0-2-1
Going Soft
15: 2-2-3
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -55%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 28% POT in L100 Runners
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Form 3rd Up
Positive
Has won 1 from 2 when third up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On a quick back-up. One of a few dropping back in trip for this assignment. Can fill the minors here.
ILB
On a quick back up. Was $26.00 and finished 6th last start at Ararat but drawn nicely. Appears tested.
RP
Held in sixth at Ararat on Sunday upped to 2m4f; others more likely given many of his rivals are in good form.
RSIS
Backs up quickly. Started 25/1 and ran 6th last time at Ararat but will try to take advantage of the stall.
Career
18: 1-1-5
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-0-2
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Armidale
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
2: 1-0-1
Distance 2220m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 3150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2200m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-3
Going Soft
11: 1-1-2
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 50%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Unable to make an impression at Echuca. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Was $31.00 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at Echuca but can save some energy from the barrier. Others are more appealing.
RP
Last of seven over 2m at Echuca (handicap) when behind The Cunning Fox last Tuesday; others more likely given the strong opposition here.
RSIS
Started 30/1 and was well beaten when 7th last run at Echuca but has a nice advantage with a good draw.
Career
34: 1-9-7
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-1-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-1
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-1-0
Track Kilmore
3: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2226m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2440m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
23: 1-7-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 6%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Form At Track
Negative
Yet to win here
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Must be a query at this trip and sterner task awaits. Prefer others.
ILB
Did well to run 2nd beaten by 2L last time at Wangaratta and going up in trip. Performing impressively this campaign. Looks too tough.
RP
Finishing runner-up was a good effort last month at Wangaratta over 1m2f (handicap); achieved only a sole win; others more likely as hits the crossbar all too often.
RSIS
Attacked the line when 2nd beaten by 2L last start at Wangaratta and stepping up in trip. Been in the money frequently of late.