Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

30 Oct, 4:35 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Race 1 — The Valley @ Southside Pakenham Mdn Plate 1600m · jumps Fri 30 Oct, 5:45 pm AEDT

Race notes

3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
SOFT7
Fine
11 runners

Shortest win price

Viking Kid (6)

2.45

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

3Pierrobid

Offmidfield

6Viking Kid
8Your It
10Endemic
11Fine And Sunny

Midfield

9Ambition In Bloom

Offpace

12Via Theresa

Onpace

5Seven Sons
7Whitebait

Leader

1Cowboykickedfive
2Marco Polo

Cowboykickedfive · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Marco Polo · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Pierrobid · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
Seven Sons · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 7%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1CowboykickedfiveJ: Beau Mertens·T: Reece Goodwin559.5kg7 3 3 3 715: 0-0-4$14.00$3.50

Career

15: 0-0-4

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed20%

Record

First-up
5: 0-0-1
Second-up
4: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-1
Track Mount Gambier
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-2
Distance 1700m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Warrnambool1700m15 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.2L
3Pakenham Synthetic1600m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC2.75L
3Bairnsdale1600m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.92L
3Kilmore1450m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.8L
7Ballarat Synthetic1200m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC8L
3Pakenham Synthetic1200m24 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC1.9L
12Mount Gambier1400m22 Mar 2026 · 2UP MDN-SW · GOOD410.3L
5Warrnambool1300m9 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.1L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -40% POT in their L100 Races
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious at Warrnambool. Back onto home track but may find these a bit sharp.

ILB

Odds of $19.00 and tailed off to finish 7th last start at Warrnambool. Has shown early pace in races to date. In strong racing shape this campaign. Others make far more appeal.

Not beaten too far when seventh of 12 over 1m½f at Warrnambool (maiden) two weeks ago; in decent heart at present but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 15; passed over.

RSIS

Started 18/1 and didn't find the line when 7th last time at Warrnambool. Should be going forward early. In a purple patch of form since resuming from a break.

2Marco PoloJ: Jamie Mott·T: C J Waller1059.5kg7 6 9 44: 0-0-0$10.00$2.80

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Newcastle
3: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1447m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1850m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Geelong1447m7 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT56L
9Newcastle1850m19 May 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT79.6L
6Newcastle1500m2 May 2026 · Maiden · GOOD44.2L
7Newcastle1500m11 Apr 2026 · Maiden · GOOD48.3L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Solid run in soft going at Geelong at $7.50. Strips fitter and rise in trip suits.

ILB

Odds of $7.50 and finished 4th last start at Geelong. Has the necessary speed to mitigate the wide draw. Entitled to be a big price.

Finished fourth, beaten 6l, over 7f at Geelong (maiden) when dropped in distance 23 days ago; others appeal more.

RSIS

At 13/2 ran 4th last run at Geelong. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide stall.

3PierrobidJ: Jackie Beriman·T: Dale Short959.5kg5 6 7 8 610: 0-0-0$26.00$4.20

Career

10: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Mornington1500m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD31.72L
8Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.77L
7Bairnsdale1200m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD35.47L
6Kilmore2000m18 Apr 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.1L
5Kilmore1607m31 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT65L
11Geelong1715m14 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD47.9L
5Caulfield Heath1500m18 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.9L
7Sandown1500m21 Jan 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD414.36L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 80%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Dale Short in good form, out performing market 32%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 11% POT in L100 Runners
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Limited
Negative
Yet to break through after 10 starts

Comments

AAP

Competitive at times without placing. Only for exotics.

ILB

On a short turnaround. Jumped at $31.00 and didn't threaten when 6th last start at Mornington. Yet to make an impression in 10 starts. Prefer in a much weaker race.

Creditable effort to finish sixth, beaten just under 2l over 7½f at Mornington (maiden) a week ago; generally been out of sorts of late and still winless and defeats stacking up (ten on the bounce).

RSIS

Backing up quickly for this race. Odds of 30/1 and gave away some ground when 6th last run at Mornington. Yet to fire a shot in 10 attempts.

4Tempered EdgeScratched12––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide

Comments

AAP

Knuckled down with purpose at Warrnambool. Hard fit, looks more a place prospect.

ILB

Jumped at $17.00 and picked up some late ground when 5th last start at Warrnambool.

RSIS

Odds of 16/1 and was making up some late ground when 5th last run at Warrnambool.

5Seven SonsJ: Jake Noonan·T: G Eurell757kg71: 0-0-0$81.00$8.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC9.3L

Insights

Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Unremarkable debut performance at Pakenham Synthetic at huge odds 5 Oct. Looks a work in progress and others with more to offer.

ILB

At $101.00 didn't find the line when 7th last time at Pakenham Synthetic but was on debut last time. Likely to be well placed early. Will need everything to go right.

Held on his debut (at Pakenham over 7f) at 100-1 25 days ago; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

At 100/1 tailed off to finish 7th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but was a debutant last start. Should muster plenty of early pace.

6Viking KidJ: Blake Shinn·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr257kg9 31: 0-0-1$2.45$1.30

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC3.7L
9Rosehill900m21 Aug 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)5.7L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot Jockey
Positive
Blake Shinn in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 11%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Acquitted self well with debut placing at Pakenham Synthetic when supported 5 Oct. Extra trip may assist and Shinn sticks. Can have a major say.

ILB

Produced an eye catching run when 3rd beaten by 3 3/4L last time at Pakenham Synthetic and having second career run. Can find a nice position from the draw. Has ability that supersedes its rivals.

Finished in front of Fine And Sunny and Seven Sons (at Pakenham over 7f) at 11-5 three weeks ago; must now step up.

RSIS

Caught the eye when 3rd last time at Pakenham Synthetic and having second career run. Jockey Blake Shinn usually performs well for this stable. Has a good draw. Looks well placed in this.

7WhitebaitJ: Jye Mcneil·T: C J Waller1157kg6 102: 0-0-0$15.00$3.70

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1325m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

10Ballarat1500m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD46.38L
6Geelong1325m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.1L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Started $11 when safely held at Ballarat at his second race start. More a minor money chance here.

ILB

Started at $11.00 and faded away to finish 10th last time at Ballarat. Has the speed to overcome the wide barrier. Has a good chance.

Behind Endemic over 7½f at Ballarat (maiden) when beaten 6l (tenth of 11) three weeks ago; should be thereabouts as he should benefit from that experience.

RSIS

Started 10/1 and weakened to finish 10th last run at Ballarat. Has the necessary pace to overcome the wide draw. Value selection.

8Your ItJ: Craig Newitt·T: K & K Keys857kg2 81: 0-0-0$81.00$9.00

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Cranbourne1400m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD315.06L
2Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)0.8L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out

Comments

AAP

Well down the track at Cranbourne on debut at healthy odds. Needs to find a few lengths.

ILB

Started $21.00 and weakened to finish 8th last start at Cranbourne but was on debut last time. Needs a mighty effort to win this.

Came home eighth over 7f on his debut at Cranbourne (behind Via Theresa) at 20-1 three weeks ago; leading contender as his experience should be an asset.

RSIS

Started at 20/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last start at Cranbourne but was on debut last time.

9Ambition In BloomJ: Patrick Moloney·T: M M Laurie655kg5 41: 0-0-0$9.00$2.70

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Kilmore1457m13 Oct 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD43.6L
5Caulfield Heath1000m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.6L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Comes out of a strong maiden at Kilmore last start. Not out of this.

ILB

At $6.00 got going late when 4th last run at Kilmore and fitter for debut run. Modest contender.

Solid debut run at Kilmore at 5-1 two weeks ago; she ought to improve for experience and needs consideration.

RSIS

Odds of 5/1 and crept into 4th last start at Kilmore and fitter for debut run.

10EndemicJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman455kg3 33: 0-0-2$3.60$1.50

Career

3: 0-0-2

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-2

Last starts

3Ballarat1500m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD41.02L
3Bendigo1400m20 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD32.6L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 41% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

Comments

AAP

Promising 3yo with scope for improvement. Commands attention here on the home track.

ILB

Ran on when 3rd last start at Ballarat. Has not missed the placings this campaign in 2 attempts. Has a great burst of speed late. Respect the betting.

Solid effort when beaten 1l to finish third over 7½f at Ballarat (maiden) 21 days ago.

RSIS

Made considerable ground when 3rd beaten by 1L last start at Ballarat. Has run into the money at every start recently. Displays very good finishing pace. Watch betting.

11Fine And SunnyJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: G M Begg155kg6 63: 0-0-0$9.00$2.70

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed80%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC5.55L
6Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD47.92L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Never a threat after showing no early speed from the barriers at Pakenham Synthetic at her second race start. Take on trust.

ILB

At $61.00 sub-standard effort when 6th last time at Pakenham Synthetic but can save some energy from the alley. Rough chance.

Came home sixth, beaten 6l, over 7f here (maiden) 25 days ago - split Viking Kid and Seven Sons; should be in the mix as she should benefit from that experience.

RSIS

Odds of 60/1 and only fair when 6th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but drawn by the rails.

12Via TheresaJ: Michael Dee·T: G M Begg355kg8 42: 0-0-0$10.00$2.90

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Cranbourne1400m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD39.85L
8Pakenham1100m9 Apr 2026 · 2YF MDN-SW · SOFT55.9L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%

Comments

AAP

Safely held but not totally disgraced at Cranbourne. Better barrier and rise in trip may help.

ILB

Started $10.00 and closed off nicely when 4th last time at Cranbourne. Tough race will need luck.

Beaten fourth of ten at Cranbourne 21 days ago upped to 7f; others appeal more.

RSIS

Odds of 9/1 and improved late to finish 4th last run at Cranbourne.

Odds correct as at Fri 30 Oct, 4:30 am AEDT. Odds can change.