Geelong (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 2:44 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Geelong (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 13 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Fri, 13 NovGeelong (VIC)Change

Race 3 — Prestige Jayco Mdn Plate 1235m · jumps Fri 13 Nov, 1:45 pm AEDT

Race preview

The Prestige Jayco Mdn Plate at Geelong runs at 1:45 pm AEDT over 1235 metres on a Good 4 track in overcast conditions. This is a three-year-old fillies maiden, and the short-priced brigade is led by Lafarna, with Sisterly and Celestaria following. Velocite Belle, Vixen Vibes, and Finest Blend sit next in the order. Lafarna is a $150k NZB Karaka yearling on debut from the first foal of a city-winning mare, fresh from a smart jumpout win on the Ballarat synthetic. The draw at barrier 2 is ideal, and the formline suggests genuine credentials on first-up. Sisterly sits second-favourite and arrives fourth-up with blinkers added to the arrangement—a move that trainer G M Begg has activated with intent. She showed early speed at her latest runs and rates as a runner who can exploit early advantage on this circuit. Celestaria has barrier 8 and finds herself third in the market despite looking vulnerable; trainer Henry Dwyer is striking at just 7% and his stable is underperforming by 34% against market expectations.

Velocite Belle represents the place angle most compellingly. She brings a rating of 88 to the races, struck the board last time over 1009 metres at Yarra Valley, and the comment reads that she pressed early and stuck on well—will be fitter second-up. The Freedman stable saddled her at barrier 3, and though jockey Lachlan Neindorf's recent form has dipped 45% below career average and the booking looks less than ideal, her form profile and experience count heavily in a maiden field. Taema and Nothin' Surer are unlikely heroes, but Taema's jockey Neil Farley is out performing market expectations by 197% when combined with Mick Shepherdson's stable, suggesting a live chance at odds. Seagoe carries race experience from barrier 6 with Dean Yendall aboard, a jockey outperforming career average by 17% in the last 100 rides—that edge matters in tightly fought maidens.

The bold lean sits with Sisterly on the ratings and the blinkers move. Her 90 rating sits level with Celestaria and is only two points shy of Velocite Belle. She has shown early speed, the track favours runners with pace advantage, and the addition of blinkers signals trainer conviction at fourth-up when ring rust should be shedding. The form is not without blemish—she has not yet broken through—but the value sits with a runner the market has priced at second choice and whose stable is holding form, unlike the struggling operations around her.

Race notes

3YF MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
GOOD4
Overcast
10 runners

Shortest win price

Lafarna (5)

1.75

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Firststart

4Finest Blend
5Lafarna
8Ocean Mirage
9Taema

Backmarker

1Celestaria

Offmidfield

12Nothin' Surer

Midfield

13Sisterly
14Seagoe

Offpace

11Vixen Vibes

Leader

10Velocite Belle

Celestaria · Negative
Trainer SR
Henry Dwyer striking at just 7%
Finest Blend · Negative
Still Learning
No race experience
Lafarna · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Ocean Mirage · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1CelestariaJ: Declan Bates·T: Henry Dwyer857kg4 4 3 75: 0-0-1$19.00$3.50

Career

5: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1050m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Warrnambool1200m29 Oct 2026 · 3-5Y MDN SW · GOOD42.68L
3Warracknabeal1000m29 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42L
4Terang1000m12 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY105L
4Morphettville1050m28 Mar 2026 · 2yo · GOOD44.8L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Henry Dwyer striking at just 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ran on late from the back at Warrnambool when second-up. Hope for exotics.

ILB

Started at $5.50 and finished 7th last start at Warrnambool. Gets a chance against these.

Four-race maiden but has managed to finish third; fair effort (beaten 2½l) at Warrnambool last month.

RSIS

Was 9/2 and finished 7th last start at Warrnambool. Should not be far away.

2ChantessScratched14––––

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Pakenham1000m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.75L

Insights

Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Pakenham 30 Oct. Should come on and worth some thought here.

ILB

Started at $4.60 and made ground when closing off to finish 4th last run at Pakenham and fitter for debut run. Might be ridden for luck.

Respectable debut effort at Pakenham at 7-2 last month; needs to make above-average progress.

RSIS

Started at 7/2 and hit the line well when 4th last run at Pakenham and was on debut last time. Prefers to settle towards the rear.

3ContariniScratched13––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 13% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (18-weeks). Second in latest Flemington jumpout. Feasible to think she has more to offer this time in. Don't take lightly.

ILB

First up and made considerable ground when 3rd first up last preparation at Cranbourne.

RSIS

Resuming and ran home into 3rd beaten by 2L resuming last preparation at Cranbourne.

4Finest BlendJ: Thomas Stockdale·T: Nathan Dunn557kg–$8.00$2.20

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Dam is a three-time city winner in Sydney. Quickened smartly to win latest Cranbourne jumpout. Not out of this.

ILB

First start at the races 3yo by Tagaloa for Nathan Dunn. Watch the market moves.

Sibling of King Tagaloa (1m2f winner); attractively bred daughter of Tagaloa; is respected.

RSIS

Nathan Dunn 3yo by Tagaloa on debut.

5LafarnaJ: Michael Dee·T: N A Blackiston257kg–$1.75$1.09

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -37% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

$150k NZB Karaka yearling. First foal out of a City winning mare. Looked smart winning latest Ballarat Synthetic jumpout. Gets a soft draw and has strong claims on debut.

ILB

Debutant 3yo by Farnan for Nigel Blackiston and drawn nicely. Watch the market.

First race for the daughter of Farnan; record of the trainer offers some encouragement; chances are that she is best watched this time unless the betting suggests otherwise.

RSIS

Racing as a debutant 3yo by Farnan for Nigel Blackiston and has a positive draw.

6Media DarlingScratched2––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 54% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 55%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Out of a Group 1-winning mare. Strong through the line winning latest Pakenham jumpout. Can make an immediate impact here.

ILB

Snitzel 3yo having first race appearance for Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody and can find a nice position from the draw. Market as guide.

RSIS

3yo by Snitzel racing as a debutant for trainer Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody and gets a favourable draw.

7Mistressof MayfairScratched11––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo50%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

First named foal out of an unraced French mare. Kicked away to win latest Sandown jumpout. One for exotics.

ILB

Matt Laurie 3yo by Churchill having first race appearance. Watch the betting.

RSIS

Matt Laurie trained 3yo by Churchill having first race start.

8Ocean MirageJ: Jett Stanley·T: K & K Keys957kg2$34.00$4.40

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

2Caulfield Heath1000m16 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(7)0.5L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 31%
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-1-0). Out of a stakes-placed mare. Half to city winner Revoke. Fourth in latest Cranbourne jumpout and may need more distance in time.

ILB

Ken Keys & Kasey Keys 3yo by Tagaloa on debut. Watch early betting.

Sibling of Revoke (6½f winner); this daughter of Tagaloa looks the part on breeding; has to be taken seriously.

RSIS

3yo first starter sired by Tagaloa for trainer Ken Keys & Kasey Keys.

9TaemaJ: Neil Farley·T: Mick Shepherdson1057kg3$41.00$4.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating20%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

3Colac1000m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.3L

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 197%
Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 82%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 56% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Neil Farley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 49%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-1). Out of a half-sister to G1 winner Oohood. Clearly not up to winner but did enough to place in his Colac trial. Neil Farley stays aboard for debut. Prefer to see on debut.

ILB

Michael Shepherdson trained 3yo debutant by Tagaloa. Respect the betting.

Having first race; related to 5f winner Pacific Chill; rates a likely contender with signs of encouragement in profile.

RSIS

Tagaloa 3yo trained by Michael Shepherdson having first race appearance.

10Velocite BelleJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: A & S Freedman357kg4 4 33: 0-0-1$13.00$2.90

Career

3: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Yarra Valley1009m24 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT51.1L
4Mornington1200m25 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT52.9L
4Geelong1100m1 Apr 2026 · 2YF MDN-SW · GOOD42.1L

Insights

Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 45% lower than Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 46% in L100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Pressed on early and stuck on well at Yarra Glen. Will be fitter second-up. Place preferred option.

ILB

Couldn't shake them off when 3rd beaten by 1L last time at Yarra Valley. Expecting to settle positively. Strong prospects in this race.

Respectable effort (beaten just over 1l) over 5f at Yarra Glen (maiden) three weeks ago.

RSIS

Faded at the finish when 3rd last start at Yarra Vstall. Should muster plenty of early pace. Can win.

11Vixen VibesJ: Luke Currie·T: Mark & Levi Kavanagh157kg2 8 44: 0-1-0$11.00$2.65

Career

4: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed80%
Rating100%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-1-0

Last starts

4Bendigo1000m28 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD41.12L
8Geelong1125m19 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY98.1L
2Morphettville1100m30 May 2026 · 2Y BM64 HCP · SOFT71.2L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -56% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 68%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 72% Profit on Turnover
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Not far off them in the small field at Bendigo. Better for the outing. Looks more a place prospect.

ILB

Finished 4th last time at Bendigo. Should improve from the last run and gets a favourable alley. Will show up at the business end.

Without a win in three attempts although has finished second; creditable fourth, beaten just over 1l, of seven over 5f at Bendigo (maiden) 16 days ago.

RSIS

Ran 4th last start at Bendigo. Is capable of a resurgence and drawn well. Worth strong consideration.

12Nothin' SurerJ: Holly Durnan·T: Henry Dwyer457kg5 3 83: 0-0-1$61.00$6.00

Career

3: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
2: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1250m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

8Morphettville1250m22 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT79.3L
3Geelong1100m31 July 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · SOFT74.6L
5Geelong1100m1 Apr 2026 · 2YF MDN-SW · GOOD44.3L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -42% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 34%
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (83-days). Third in latest Geelong jumpout. Others with stronger claims.

ILB

First up and finished well when 3rd beaten by over 4 1/2L first up last preparation at this venue. Betting is the best guide.

Without a win in three attempts although has finished third; beaten 9l when eighth of 11 at Morphettville in August.

RSIS

Resuming and was strong late when 3rd beaten by more than 4 1/2L resuming last preparation here. Has some claims.

13SisterlyJ: Jordan Childs·T: G M Begg757kg4 5 63: 0-0-0$5.00$1.60

Career

3: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Sale1400m25 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY102.95L
5Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD33.15L
4Caulfield Heath1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD42.95L

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Kept finding the line without threatening in soft going at Sale latest outing. Fourth up now and gets the addition of blinkers. Race experience is a positive.

ILB

At $6.50 finished 6th last start at Sale. Looking past the last run. Has claims.

Respectable effort at Sale over 7f (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Started at 11/2 and ran 6th last run at Sale. Has the talent to rebound quickly. Can take this out.

14SeagoeJ: Dean Yendall·T: A & S Freedman657kg5 8 7 5 31: 0-0-0$17.00$3.40

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Muswellbrook
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Gold Coast1000m2 June 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(6)1L
5Muswellbrook1000m1 May 2026 · 2YF HCP · GOOD42.6L
7Canterbury898m10 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2.3L
8Randwick1050m27 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · HEAVY(8)11.4L
5Randwick740m16 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)5.5L
8Randwick740m27 Jan 2026 · Barrier Trial6.2L
2Randwick740m7 Nov 2025 · Barrier Trial0.4L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 21%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (28-weeks). Couldn't get into the finish on debut at Muswellbrook but wasn't disgraced. Under the whip in latest Mornington jumpout. On trust.

ILB

First up from a 28 week spell. Odds of $13.00 and ran 5th last time at Muswellbrook but having second career run. A long shot.

Fair debut effort at Muswellbrook at 12-1 six months ago; layoff to overcome.

RSIS

Resuming after a break of 28 weeks. Odds of 12/1 and ran 5th last start at Muswellbrook but having second career run.

15Queens CodeScratched9––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Insights

Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Let-up (57-days). Closed off late from the tail at Mornington at second appearance. Strong through the line in latest Pakenham jumpout. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Back from a let up. Started at $16.00 and closed off nicely when 5th last run at Mornington.

RSIS

Let up. Started at 15/1 and made up ground when 5th last time at Mornington.

Odds correct as at Fri 13 Nov, 1:50 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sat 7 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 21 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 9 races
Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 8 races
Wed 23 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races
Fri 11 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 9 races