Shortest win price
Sihaya (9)
3.20
Geelong's maiden plate at 1435 metres on good ground shapes as a tricky puzzle with Sheltered shortest in the market, followed by Red Tide and Baccano. The track is overcast and the race jumps at 2:20 pm AEDT. On debut, Sheltered is a $50k purchase out of a Group 1-winning mare—connections clearly rate her—but a dour fifth at the Sandown jumpout is hardly inspiring, and the Freedman stable is running 21 per cent below market expectation of late. Red Tide has the form line to suggest improvement here; the AAP comment backs the step up to this distance, and the Pakenham maiden last start saw her hit the line fairly over shorter. In opinion, Red Tide's upside at this price is worth a look over the short-priced debutante. Baccano is second-up and resuming after 20 weeks between campaigns, with nothing to find from two previous starts bar a distant Flemington run and a fifth at Swan Hill. Luke Nolen's current strike rate is 46 per cent below career average, and trainer Moody's camp is struggling at 7 per cent, so the combination carries genuine question marks.
The pace shape favors speed. Mystic Rapture leads from barrier 3, while Baccano and Hannan Street sit midfield together; that leaves Red Tide and Freshwater Fox offpace, and the backmarkers—Miss Xtravaganza and Sihaya—some ground to make up. Sihaya is worth noting further down the market: she ran second at Pakenham Synthetic two starts ago and has since sharpened. The Hayes stable is underperforming at 6 per cent POT, but Luke Currie's last-start fade at Echuca was over unsuitable ground. Freshwater Fox, fifth in the market order, is offpace but Dean Yendall is 17 per cent above career average on the back of 100 rides, and the form—a minor placing two starts ago—hints at a runner ready to peak second-up.
In opinion, Red Tide's race experience and the distance suit, and she rates value ahead of the short-priced Sheltered. If the pace forces a genuine tempo at Geelong, Red Tide's offpace lane could be an asset; she hit the line well at 1200 metres last time and has no excuse here. The risks are real—maiden racing is unforgiving—but the formline and the track conditions align in her favour.
Shortest win price
Sihaya (9)
3.20
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Firststart
Leader
Baccano · Negative
Jockey Booking
Luke Nolen current POT is 46% below Career Avg.
Hannan Street · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Red Tide · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Sheltered · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 46% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -28% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 55% in L100 rides
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
AAP
Second campaign (20-weeks). Distant second in recent Pakenham Synthetic jumpout. Better for race experience and this is a suitable trip for resumption.
ILB
Resuming after a spell. Disappointing display when 11th last time at Flemington but will find this grade easier. Place claims at best.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 at Flemington in June in a handicap; Luke Nolen here for just this ride; returns from a layoff; others more persuasive.
RSIS
First run back today. Not up to scratch when 11th last time at Flemington but up against a less competitive field.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mortlake
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Karlene Tindale in good form, out performing market 330%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Backing up quickly. Failed to threaten at Hamilton last outing as a despised outsider. Others rate stronger.
ILB
Backing up quickly for this race. Started at $151.00 and mediocre performance when 11th last run at Hamilton. Unlikely to cause an upset.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 at Hamilton on Monday upped to 1m.
RSIS
On a short back up. Started at 150/1 and subpar when 11th last run at Hamilton.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -61% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 29%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Hit the line fairly at Pakenham last outing. Fancy the extra trip will suit. Big show.
ILB
At $19.00 didn't attack the line when 7th last time at Pakenham. Rough hope.
RP
Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Pakenham (beaten 4½l) over 6f (maiden) 14 days ago; a number of these have questions to answer so shouldn't be far away.
RSIS
Odds of 18/1 and faded to finish 7th last time at Pakenham.
Rating · IRD
96
Speed map
Firststart
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 21%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
$50k purchase. First foal out of a Group 1-winning mare. A bit dour finishing fifth in latest Sandown jumpout. Good trip for debut.
ILB
3yo by Stay Inside on debut for trainer Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman and has drawn to do little work. Watch the market.
RP
Sole newcomer in the field; represents a trainer with a strong record here with newcomers; big player as some good aspects to his profile.
RSIS
3yo first starter by Stay Inside for trainer Anthony Freedman & Sam Freedman and has a nice advantage with a good draw. Watch the market moves.
Career
4: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 17% in Last 100 Rides
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Fronting up for second campaign (22-weeks). Had a quiet trial at Colac. Has a tricky draw. Can't enthuse.
ILB
First run back from a break. Started $10.00 and came in 6th last run at Donald and will be dropping in distance. May find these too slick.
RP
Beaten sixth of ten at Donald over 1m3f (maiden) in June; some promise; closest she has come to winning after four starts was a second; layoff to overcome; makes limited appeal.
RSIS
Fresh today. At 9/1 came in 6th last start at Donald and dropping back to a shorter trip.
Career
9: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
5: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Casterton
1: 0-0-0
Track Colac
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 71%
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
AAP
Raced in back half and was never in a position to mount a serious challenge at Mortlake. Hard to make a case.
ILB
At $71.00 finished 6th last run at Mortlake. Yet to fire a shot in 9 runs. Likely to get back in the run. Prefer to watch.
RP
Generally struggled of late and winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at nine; missed the frame (beaten 7l into sixth) over 5½f at Mortlake (maiden) two weeks ago; is passed over.
RSIS
Started 70/1 and ran 6th last time at Mortlake. Yet to trouble the judge in all runs. Likely to settle back in the field.
Career
18: 0-5-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
2: 0-1-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1235m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
9: 0-2-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
6: 0-3-1
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Kyneton. Won a Geelong jumpout between runs. Place only.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and disappointing effort when 9th last time at Kyneton. Yet to break maiden status after 18 starts. Likely to get back. Large claim helps. Hard to entertain.
RP
Last of nine in a handicap (Kyneton) three weeks ago; largely not been running well and winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 18; she can be taken on.
RSIS
Was 100/1 and below par performance when 9th last run at Kyneton. A 18 start maiden. Gets back and needs luck. The large claim from Sarah Field helps.
Career
15: 0-1-3
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
4: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
3: 0-1-1
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1112m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1335m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-2
Going Heavy
3: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-1-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 2%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 68%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 12%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Made running, no answer when challenged but held on for third at Kilmore. Maps well and can show some cheek.
ILB
Was quite a handful for the competition when 3rd beaten by just over 3 1/2L last run at Kilmore and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Wasn't disgraced when third of ten at Kilmore last month; has arguably shown improved form the last twice but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 15.
RSIS
Couldn't keep the momentum going throughout when 3rd last start at Kilmore and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Will be positive in the run early. Watch betting.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 6% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished well down the track at Echuca last outing. Sharper now, can make her presence felt.
ILB
Odds of $2.20 and was well beaten when 9th last run at Echuca. Is capable of a resurgence and has a positive draw. Displays very good finishing speed. Will go very close.
RP
Seemed to find it tough last month when ninth of 11 (Echuca); others appeal more.
RSIS
Was 6/5 and looked outclassed when 9th last run at Echuca. Can make a comeback and gets a favourable stall. Should be swooping on the field late. Attracts support.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1212m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
AAP
Finished down the track in both runs. Won a recent Mornington jumpout. Has to lift.
ILB
Faded to finish 9th last time at Mornington. Prefers to settle towards the tail.
RP
Finished last of nine over 6f at Mornington (maiden) last month; in first-time blinkers now; prospects; also engaged in race 2 at Pakenham.
RSIS
Weakened under pressure when 9th last start at Mornington. Might have to make up considerable ground.