Shortest win price
Alpine Drift (1)
4.00
Hobart hosts the Aviso Tas Insurance Brokers Mdn Plate over the 1600m on a good four track under overcast skies, scheduled to jump at 11:36 am AEDT. The win market sees Rousing Levi heading up calculations, closely followed by White Moon, Alpine Drift, and Symphony Queen as the front markers in the betting order. Fortune favours the bold here, and the value sits with finding an angle away from the shortest elect as this maiden lacks any standout reliability.
Taking a closer look at the form behind the market leaders, Rousing Levi comes in for Ms L Gaffney with Erica Byrne Burke steering from barrier five, having run on well for fourth over this exact 1600m trip at Launceston last start when showing fitness gains from a lengthy absence. White Moon represents Jessie Bazan from barrier four with Kelvin Sanderson aboard, having given a strong sight on debut when finishing third over 1600m at Launceston under betting interest. Meanwhile, Alpine Drift maps as a leader from barrier seven for Sigrid Carr and Chloe Wells, coming off a game second placing over 1600m at Launceston that suggests building fitness, while Symphony Queen draws barrier eight for S Gandy and Anthony Darmanin after a reasonable effort over this distance last time out.
Shortest win price
Alpine Drift (1)
4.00
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Alpine Drift · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Called Through · Negative
Current SR
Rider’s recent POT is returning 52% lower than Career Avg.
Geegees Big Bird · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Rousing Levi · Positive
Key Rider
Erica Byrne Burke 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Career
4: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Hobart
3: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Map Suits
Positive
Suitable Map, where runners in this position outperform market by 1%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Game effort at Launceston first up. Building fitness. Among the dangers again.
ILB
Picked up late ground when 2nd last start at Launceston. Will be positive in the run early. Much prefer the look of others in this race.
RP
Went close when runner-up at Launceston dropped back in distance two weeks ago; had several of these rivals behind him; career is progressing; a likely player.
RSIS
Caught the eye when 2nd last run at Launceston. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
21: 0-4-2
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
11: 0-2-1
Track Devonport Synthetic
5: 0-0-1
Track Hobart
5: 0-2-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
6: 0-2-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-1
Going Soft
12: 0-3-0
Going Synthetic
5: 0-0-1
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 52% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 74%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 79% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 38%
Slow Early LS
Negative
Speed data from recent runs suggests slower early splits on avg
AAP
Sent out $10 when unable to threaten at Launceston first up. Strips fitter. Only for exotics.
ILB
Started at $10.00 and performed below standard when 12th last run at Launceston but drawn nicely. Might be ridden for luck. Considering others.
RP
Finished towards the rear of 14 at Launceston last month; shown recent signs of improvement; may have to settle for supporting role.
RSIS
At 9/1 moderate showing when 12th last time at Launceston but has a positive stall. Prefers to settle towards the tail.
Career
27: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
6: 0-0-0
Second-up
5: 0-0-0
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
10: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
10: 0-1-0
Track Launceston
14: 0-0-1
Distance 1009m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-0
Going Good
15: 0-0-0
Going Soft
9: 0-1-1
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 1%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 69%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Track Stats
Negative
Tends to struggle at this track
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Went home tamely at Launceston when second-up at $151. Hard to make a case.
ILB
Was $151.00 and underwhelming when 11th last time at Launceston but has minimal work to do from the draw. Still in maiden grade after 27 runs. Would rather look at others.
RP
Winless after 27 races and been out of sorts of late; finished towards the rear of 14 at Launceston last month; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Odds of 150/1 and not up to standard when 11th last run at Launceston but gets a favourable stall. Still in maiden grade after 27 starts.
Career
8: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
3: 0-0-2
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-2
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 2000m
2: 0-0-1
Distance 2200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-2
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Key Rider
Positive
Erica Byrne Burke 21% above market expected in L100 Rides
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Not disgraced at Launceston after lengthy absence. Will be fitter second-up. High on the shortlist.
ILB
Odds of $5.00 and picked up some ground to run 4th last start at Launceston. Has plenty of early speed. Expecting a strong showing.
RP
Respectable effort when back to this distance at Launceston last month; latest effort was encouraging so likely to be in contention.
RSIS
Was 4/1 and picked up some ground to run 4th last time at Launceston. Should muster plenty of early pace. Solid prospects.
Career
9: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
3: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
6: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
6: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-1-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 12% better than Career Avg.
Ideal Map
Positive
Map position exceeding market by 1%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Sent out $71 when never got into the race at Launceston. Looks up against it.
ILB
Was $71.00 and not competitive when 7th last run at Launceston. Yet to break maiden status after 10 runs. Hard to see it being competitive today.
RP
Hasn't shown much recently and yet to win after nine starts; not far behind Strip'n'tough when seventh over 7f at Launceston (maiden) last month; others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Started at 70/1 and struggled when 7th last start at Launceston. A 10 start maiden.
Career
4: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
3: 0-0-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Max Beamish striking at just 7%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Last start this trip ran on okay without troubling at Launceston. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
At $26.00 was well beaten when 8th last time at Launceston. Needs too much luck.
RP
Posted respectable effort when beaten 2½l (Launceston) two weeks ago; should prove competitive.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and didn't threaten when 8th last start at Launceston.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Key Rider
Positive
Luke P Dempsey 20% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Weight Increase
Negative
Rises 4kg now
AAP
Ran on okay without troubling at Launceston. Significantly up in distance. Only for the minors here.
ILB
At $9.50 weakened to finish 7th last run at Launceston but facing an increased distance. Carrying more weight than last time. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Not beaten too far (2½l) over 6f at Launceston (maiden) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Started 17/2 and looked outclassed when 7th last start at Launceston but stepping up in distance. Hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Betting is the best guide.
Career
11: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hobart
3: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
3: 0-0-1
Track Donald
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1380m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
3: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 0-0-0
Going Soft
4: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 49%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Last assignment this trip when reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Launceston. Awkwardly drawn. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Odds of $15.00 and peaked in the final stages of the race when 5th last start at Launceston. Still a maiden after 11 starts. Can't have.
RP
12th attempt to lose maiden tag; solid run when fifth at Launceston two weeks ago.
RSIS
Odds of 14/1 and peaked on the run when 5th last time at Launceston. Yet to break through after 11 starts.
Career
7: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Devonport Synthetic
3: 0-1-0
Track Hobart
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1150m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-1-0
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Comfortably beaten at Launceston first run back. Will be fitter second-up and takes a 2kg claim. Breaks from a low barrier. Capable of making an impact.
ILB
Started at $21.00 and weakened under pressure when 6th last start at Launceston. Has early speed and positions nicely. This is a tough race.
RP
Not disgraced when sixth over 7f at Launceston (maiden) last month; winless in seven starts but has shown promise with second her top showing; is passed over.
RSIS
Started 20/1 and weakened to finish 6th last time at Launceston. Has plenty of early pace.
Career
8: 0-1-3
Rating · IRD
92
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Launceston
6: 0-1-2
Track Devonport Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1350m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
4: 0-1-2
Distance 1420m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-2
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-1
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 11%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Last assignment this trip when reasonable effort without seriously threatening at Launceston. Right in the mix.
ILB
Was $4.60 and came in 7th last time at Launceston. Has the ability to turn things around. Must respect.
RP
Consistent performer; came up a bit short, beaten just over 2l when favourite, at Launceston two weeks ago; strong claims.
RSIS
Was 7/2 and came in 7th last start at Launceston. Giving another chance here. Win will not surprise.
Career
1: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Launceston
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 34% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Jessie Bazan striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Key Jockey
Positive
Kelvin Sanderson winning at 25% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Gave a sight on debut at Launceston under betting interest 16 Oct. Better for it. Among the dangers again.
ILB
Put in a competitive run when placing 3rd last run at Launceston and was a debutant last start. Competitive type.
RP
Solid effort on her debut when third at Launceston at 4-1 last month; worth noting that runners from this stable can show improved form on second start; could improve from first run although a leap forward required to win this.
RSIS
Claimed a spot in the placings when 3rd last run at Launceston and having second career run. Highly respected.