Shortest win price
Flash Inquiry (4)
2.25
Dunkeld hosts the Ararat Meat Exports Mdn Plate over 1000m on a Soft 7 track under overcast skies, scheduled for 1:04 pm AEDT. The win market order places Flash Inquiry at the head of affairs, closely followed by Red Mink, Starseatic, and Gunnah's Conker in the early betting sequence. The bold play here looks to lean away from the shortest priced runners and find some value in a tricky 3yo maiden contest where several stables are struggling for consistent strike rates.
Looking closely at the form behind the market leader, Flash Inquiry comes out of a solid runner-up performance at Swan Hill over 975m on a Good 4 track where she showed a strong late turn of foot from the back half. That effort earned a rating of 80 and follows a prior run at Echuca. Meanwhile, Red Mink brings a rating of 94 into the race after a narrow second at Albury over 900m, suggesting she has the right conditioning to run a bold race here despite the stable statistics pointing to a lower striking rate overall.
Further down the win market order, Starseatic represents an interesting angle with a rating of 81, coming off a battling third at Mortlake over 1100m on a Soft 5 surface. With Red Mink and Starseatic both listed among the leaders in the early speed groups, expect them to try and dictate terms up front, while runners like Balgownie Miss look for a softer trip from the back markers. The value sits with those who can handle the Soft 7 conditions better than their rivals if the tempo proves hot early.
Shortest win price
Flash Inquiry (4)
2.25
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offpace
Onpace
Firststart
Leader
Ricky Stanicky · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Balgownie Miss · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Flash Inquiry · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Gunnah's Conker · Negative
Trainer SR
Daryl Cannon striking at just 2%
Career
4: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 975m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-2-0
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
AAP
First-up (17-weeks). Shown some promise. Drawn well for return. Capable of playing a key role in this.
ILB
Racing fresh after a break. Close to a win last start Ballarat Synthetic and honest performer putting a tidy record together. Drawn well.
RP
Went down by a neck (Ballarat) in July; layoff to overcome.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Missed by a narrow margin last time Ballarat Synthetic and promising career start. Will appreciate a good stall.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 2%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 57%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 34%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
In touch but ran out of petrol quickly and finished a long way down the track at Mildura at second appearance. Prefer to watch.
ILB
Was $61.00 and folded up in the straight when 9th last run at Mildura but has a positive gate. Interesting gear change of ear muffs on first time. Prefer a race with softer competition.
RP
Ninth of ten beaten 13l at Mildura last month.
RSIS
Started 60/1 and didn't attack the line when 9th last start at Mildura but has a positive stall. Hood go on for the first time.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 21% in Last 100 Rides
Key Rider
Positive
Melissa Julius 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Luke Williams in good form, out performing market 32%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 12% POT in L100 Runners
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Second campaign (25-weeks). Offered little to catch the eye on debut at Caulfield Heath at wide odds 20 May. Experience helps.
ILB
First up today. Didn't find the line when 10th last start at Caulfield Heath but having second race start. Expected to be flashing home. Up against a less competitive field. Place hope.
RP
Never landed a blow on her debut when last of ten over this distance at Caulfield at 66-1 six months ago; returns from a layoff; definite chance as trainer's horses tend to improve markedly from their debut and she knows more about the job in hand.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Didn't threaten when 10th last time at Caulfield Heath but was a debutant last start. Can go through the gears. Facing a weaker grade.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
81
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-1-0
Distance 975m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ridden in back half, strong late to fill the minors 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Swan Hill at her second race start. Can challenge again.
ILB
Managed to finish 2nd last time at Swan Hill. Very capable of taking this out.
RP
Turned in a solid effort in defeat two weeks ago, when second (Swan Hill); stable going well a plus.
RSIS
Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 1 1/4L last run at Swan Hill. Definite winning chance.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Daryl Cannon striking at just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 60%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Awkward Draw
Negative
Would have liked a better draw
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Back for second campaign (16-weeks). Unremarkable debut performance at Pakenham Synthetic as a despised outsider 20 Jul. Comes off a good trial.
ILB
Fresh from a break. Started $151.00 and tailed off to finish 10th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but fitter for debut run. Likely to be well placed early. Pass at this stage.
RP
Beaten on her debut at Pakenham at 150-1 four months ago; should improve with a run under her belt although it was only a modest start.
RSIS
Back from a break. Odds of 150/1 and tailed off to finish 10th last run at Pakenham Synthetic but having second race start. Should come to hand quickly.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 53% better than Career Avg.
Key Rider
Positive
Neil Farley 62% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 35% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Jockey
Positive
Neil Farley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 62%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
AAP
Settled back and always among the cab-catchers at Tatura at second start. Shown nothing in two outings so far. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Back from a freshen up. Was $101.00 and looked outclassed when 8th last time at Tatura. Interesting to see the tongue tie go off for the first time. Can't entertain.
RP
Could not manage better than eighth over 5½f at Tatura (maiden) 46 days ago; others are preferred.
RSIS
Freshened for this. Started 100/1 and faded to finish 8th last time at Tatura. Interesting gear change of tongue strap off first time.
Rating · IRD
91
Speed map
Firststart
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -41% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 33% in L100 rides
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously
AAP
Trials (1:0-0-0). $20k purchase. Out of an unraced mare. Won most recent jumpout on Ballarat synthetic. Creates interest on debut.
ILB
3yo by Profiteer racing as a debutant for trainer Archie Alexander. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
First start under rules for this daughter of Profiteer; can make her presence felt with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
3yo by Profiteer having initial appearance for trainer Archie Alexander.
Career
2: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Albury
1: 0-1-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 45% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Timothy Fitzsimmons striking at just 7%
Key Rider
Positive
Jack Hill 51% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 34%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Awkward Draw
Negative
May find this draw awkward
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Close-up and gave her all to just miss at Albury at second outing. Stripping fitter, primed to go one better.
ILB
Just shy of the win last start at Albury. Should come to hand quickly. Jack Hill and Tim Fitzsimmons have achieved a lot of success as a team. Very smart animal who will take a power of beating.
RP
Beaten a head when second over 4½f at Albury (maiden) last month.
RSIS
Narrowly beaten last start at Albury. Jack Hill and Tim Fitzsimmons are a formidable team. Has shown early pace in races to date. Has ability that supersedes its rivals.
Career
4: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 14% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -23% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 39%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
At the helm, outpointed late but slogged away for the minor spoils 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Mortlake when second-up. Leads, handy.
ILB
Couldn't maintain the momentum throughout when 3rd beaten by 3L last run at Mortlake. Should race on the speed. Good prospects.
RP
Turned in a solid effort in defeat last month, when third at Mortlake over 5½f (maiden).
RSIS
Ran out of steam towards the end when 3rd last time at Mortlake. Likely to be well placed early. Winning chance at nice odds.
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Firststart
Trainer SR
Negative
Ciaron Maher striking at just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
AAP
Hanseatic filly heading to the races off an average Cranbourne jumpout. Must always respect stable first starters.
ILB
3yo by Hanseatic having initial appearance for Ciaron Maher. Watch the market.
RP
Ciaron Maher newcomers have an excellent record over this sort of trip; must go on the shortlist as some good aspects to her profile.
RSIS
Initial race appearance 3yo by Hanseatic for trainer Ciaron Maher.