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Dunkeld (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Dunkeld (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Sat 14 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Sat, 14 NovDunkeld (VIC)Change

Race 5 — Elders Hamilton Hcp (56) 1200m · jumps

Race preview

The Elders Hamilton Handicap over 1200m at Dunkeld on a Soft5 track at 3:26 pm AEDT sets up as a genuinely open race where the market has bundled several chances at tight odds. Abby's Crossword heads the win order, with Krasnoludek and Drunken Sailor pressing hard behind. The favourite comes back after a lengthy absence, rated 100 by IRD, and hit the front at Mortale at decent odds recently, but the form reads as patchy across a short career of twenty starts. Krasnoludek has the credentials of a jockey-trainer combo winning at 26 per cent strike rate across their last hundred races, though a 48 per cent underperformance at this specific track sits as a real red flag. Drunken Sailor broke through convincingly over this exact distance at Balranald, quickening from the turn, yet Neil Farley's recent form is running 53 per cent better than career average—a stat that sometimes corrects hard.

The form picture splits between two competing angles. Abby's Crossword is undoubtedly fitter after her layoff and bundles class form, but her placement in a soft draw at barrier 2 hides a concerning J/T combo that has lost ground at minus 100 per cent POT recently. Krasnoludek strips fitter off a long break and the Ryan Hurdle and Robert Hickmott combination has genuine winning form, yet Dunkeld has shown no mercy to this pairing historically—a cautionary note when the barrier 8 draw offers no favours either. Drunken Sailor's last-start effort was compelling and her finishing sectionals ranked fastest overall last outing, but rising weight and an adverse draw at barrier 10 make a repeat highly unlikely on face value. Hidden Comfort, rated 81, holds better second-up form data and sits in a serviceable barrier 4 slot, though recent efforts have yielded only back-half placings and the trainer's 3 per cent career strike rate is brutal.

Iliad deserves a second look. The leader from barrier 9 carries early speed, which the circuit favours, and her jockey-trainer combo is outperforming market expectations by 117 per cent across their last hundred runners—a rare positive indicator in this field. She has a five-win record from thirty starts and recent form shows a win at this distance two runs back. The opinion here leans toward Drunken Sailor at three or four, framing a value play on the assumption that her last-start grit holds more weight than the draw threat. Krasnoludek as the outsider bet against inside odds remains tempting given stable form, but Dunkeld has burned that combination before and barrier luck matters on soft ground. The race is genuinely there for the taking.

Race notes

  • 0 - 56,0 - 56 HCP,3yo+,Restricted 56
  • SOFT5
  • Overcast
  • 10 runners

Shortest win price

Abby's Crossword (5)

1.75

Most career wins

Drunken Sailor and Take The Prize

5 each

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 1I Am Vengeance

Offmidfield

  • 3Drunken Sailor

Midfield

  • 2Krasnoludek
  • 8Immortal Justice
  • 6Hidden Comfort

Offpace

  • 9Take The Prize
  • 5Abby's Crossword
  • 11Simply Excels

Onpace

  • 7Sweet But Sassy

Leader

  • 10Iliad

  • I Am Vengeance · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Krasnoludek · Positive

    Hot J/T Combo

    Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races

  • Drunken Sailor · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Abby's Crossword · Positive

    Fast Finisher

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1I Am VengeanceJ: Chelsea Taylor·T: Jody Thompson560kg8 6 12 5 111: 1-0-1$20.00$3.60

Career

11: 1-0-1

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating20%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kyneton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Werribee

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Berrigan

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1418m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1479m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1600m

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    10: 1-0-1

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Berrigan1100m31 Oct 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD3-2.12
  2. 5Kyneton1479m27 Feb 2026 · 4UP MDN SW · SOFT65.6L
  3. 12Werribee1418m1 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD448.3L
  4. 6Kerang1400m27 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD317.8L
  5. 8Albury1400m13 Dec 2025 · MDN-SW · GOOD46.3L
  6. 3Wagga1600m1 Mar 2025 · Class 1 · GOOD41.31L
  7. 10Wagga1600m17 Feb 2025 · Maiden · GOOD47.05L
  8. 6Benalla1412m2 Feb 2025 · Maiden · GOOD39.56L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 48%

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Ultra impressive when slipped to a 2.1 length victory at Berrigan. This will ask more.

ILB

Finished on top by 2L last start at Berrigan. Might have to make up considerable ground. Will need to find a new peak.

RP

Has raised his game the last twice; things dropped right at Berrigan over 5½f (maiden) when dropped in distance two weeks ago, getting the job done by just over 2l; probably unlikely to trouble the principals despite the last time out success.

RSIS

Bold effort to win by 2L last run at Berrigan. Does take a while to get into stride.

2KrasnoludekJ: Ryan Hurdle·T: Robert Hickmott860kg1 3 7 5 610: 1-1-2$10.00$2.60

Career

10: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

78

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Hamilton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Stawell

    3: 1-1-0

  • Track St Arnaud

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1212m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    7: 1-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    1: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 6St Arnaud1100m24 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD39.6L
  2. 5Hamilton1400m26 May 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY105.8L
  3. 7Stawell1300m18 May 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY98.7L
  4. 3Donald1350m2 May 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD33L
  5. 1Stawell1307m17 Apr 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.3
  6. 2Stawell1300m5 Apr 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD30.4L
  7. 5Avoca1300m29 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD38.1L
  8. 6Geelong1212m14 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.9L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are winning 26% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 48%

  • Early Sectionals

    Negative

    Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace

  • Wide Draw

    Negative

    Likely to get caught wide

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and never likely at St Arnaud off long break. Strips fitter. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Started $9.00 and finished 6th last start at St Arnaud. Respect the betting.

RP

Finished just behind Simply Excels when sixth over 5½f at St Arnaud (handicap) last month; this line-up contains some strong opposition so may have to settle for supporting role at best.

RSIS

Odds of 8/1 and ran 6th last start at St Arnaud. Not without a chance.

3Drunken SailorJ: Neil Farley·T: C V Kelly1059.5kg2 13 9 9 140: 5-7-1$11.00$2.70

Career

40: 5-7-1

Rating · IRD

73

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 1-0-0

  • Track Toowoomba

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Queanbeyan

    3: 2-1-0

  • Track Wyong

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    3: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    3: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1400m

    9: 1-0-0

  • Going Good

    24: 3-2-1

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-2-0

  • Going Soft

    10: 2-3-0

Last starts

  1. 1Balranald1200m24 Oct 2026 · BM58 (55) · GOOD4-0.02
  2. 9Bendigo1400m17 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD34.93L
  3. 9Mildura1400m6 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD46.77L
  4. 13Swan Hill1600m22 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD314.75L
  5. 2Mildura1408m5 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT60.3L
  6. 8Ballarat Synthetic1200m18 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC9.2L
  7. 12Mildura1400m17 July 2026 · HCP · GOOD414.4L
  8. 9Bendigo1300m5 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY911.7L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 53% better than Career Avg.

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 5%

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Neil Farley 62% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 65%

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 24%

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Neil Farley in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 62%

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 48%

Comments

AAP

Quickened from turn and kept finding at Balranald over this trip. Has an adverse draw and rising in weight. Repeat would surprise.

ILB

Got the upper hand late when winning last run at Balranald. Looking at others.

RP

Got home in front by a nose (Balranald) last month; others more persuasive despite that win at Balranald.

RSIS

Really dug deep when winning last run at Balranald.

4Ponte ArcobalenoScratched13––––

Career

21: 2-6-2

Rating · IRD

89

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-1

  • Third-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Albury

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Manangatang

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1203m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1209m

    2: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1300m

    3: 0-2-0

  • Going Good

    14: 2-4-1

  • Going Soft

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Synthetic

    5: 0-1-1

Last starts

  1. 2Yarra Valley1209m24 Oct 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT52.75L
  2. 1Manangatang1175m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD3-0.15
  3. 3Echuca1209m19 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD44.5L
  4. 6Ballarat Synthetic1200m25 Aug 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM56 HCP · SYNTHETIC6L
  5. 9Pakenham Synthetic1200m10 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC6.7L
  6. 8Ballarat Synthetic1400m30 June 2026 · Benchmark 62 · SYNTHETIC7.8L
  7. 3Ballarat Synthetic1200m16 June 2026 · BM56 · SYNTHETIC3.3L
  8. 1Albury1175m15 May 2026 · CGE MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.8

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 44% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 8%

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%

  • Hot Jockey

    Positive

    Lachlan King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 55%

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 48%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Drawn Poorly

    Negative

    Unfavourable barrier draw

Comments

AAP

Racing in fine order. Off pace, home okay into the placings at Yarra Glen 24 Oct. Not out of this.

ILB

Finished well when 2nd last start at Yarra Valley. Going well this preparation.

RP

Creditable effort to finish runner-up at Yarra Glen 21 days ago.

RSIS

Rattled home nicely into 2nd last start at Yarra Vstall. Producing consistent results in recent runs.

5Abby's CrosswordJ: Linda Meech·T: Cameron Thompson258kg3 4 1 3 220: 1-4-2$1.75$1.09

Career

20: 1-4-2

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating100%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Mortlake

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1230m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1284m

    1: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    16: 1-1-2

  • Going Soft

    4: 0-3-0

Last starts

  1. 2Mortlake1100m31 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.5L
  2. 3Colac1000m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.6L
  3. 1Avoca1300m29 Mar 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD3-4.3
  4. 4Ballarat1600m22 Feb 2026 · MDN-SW · GOOD46L
  5. 3Colac1600m6 Feb 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD40.7L
  6. 9Warrnambool1700m11 Jan 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD37.6L
  7. 2Warrnambool1400m31 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD30.5L
  8. 6Geelong1230m12 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.9L

Insights

  • Fast Finisher

    Positive

    Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Ran On Hard LS

    Positive

    Ran on well last start

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Mid-division, well held by winner but good through line at Mortlake at $4.80 after lengthy absence. Better conditioned.

ILB

Finished amongst the placegetters when 2nd beaten by 2 1/2L last run at Mortlake and will try to take advantage of the gate. No surprise to see solid support in the betting.

RP

Has raised her game the last twice; ran well to finish second (beaten 2½l) over 5½f at Mortlake (handicap) last month.

RSIS

Produced an eye catching run when 2nd beaten by 2 1/2L last time at Mortlake and will try to take advantage of the stall. Holds a major chance.

6Hidden ComfortJ: Zac Spain·T: Michael Huglin458kg8 5 13 8 816: 2-1-3$12.00$2.80

Career

16: 2-1-3

Rating · IRD

81

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-1-1

  • Second-up

    3: 1-0-1

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-1

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Hamilton

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1008m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    4: 0-1-2

  • Distance 1200m

    4: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    9: 1-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 1-0-2

Last starts

  1. 8Kyneton1218m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD39.45L
  2. 8Bairnsdale1200m13 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT79L
  3. 13Bendigo1300m25 June 2026 · Benchmark 62 · SOFT67L
  4. 5Swan Hill1300m6 June 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT61.6L
  5. 8Sale1008m17 May 2026 · 0-66 · GOOD45.7L
  6. 2Caulfield Heath800m30 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.2L
  7. 1Wangaratta1300m23 Aug 2025 · 0 - 58 · GOOD4-0.4
  8. 10Hamilton1100m2 Aug 2025 · 0 - 58 · HEAVY818.3L

Insights

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 3%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -66% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 60%

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Raced in back half and never likely at Kyneton off spell. Fitter and second-up form generally better. Remote place hope at best.

ILB

Was $12.00 and struggled with the pace when 8th last time at Kyneton. Can measure up against these.

RP

Was held in eighth at Kyneton three weeks ago; this is her grade; shown she can win fairly recently and should give it a bold bid.

RSIS

At 11/1 couldn't stay in touch when 8th last start at Kyneton. Expecting a strong showing.

7Sweet But SassyJ: Lucinda Boyd·T: Lucinda Boyd758kg5 10 11 9 16: 1-0-0$11.00$2.70

Career

6: 1-0-0

Rating · IRD

72

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 1-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Kilmore

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1125m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    4: 1-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    2: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 1Mildura1300m3 Nov 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD4-1
  2. 9Kilmore1457m13 Oct 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD48.57L
  3. 11Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD411.72L
  4. 10Geelong1125m20 Jan 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD311.5L
  5. 5Ballarat Synthetic1000m7 Aug 2025 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC3.1L
  6. 4Ballarat Synthetic1200m8 July 2025 · 2Y MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC8L

Insights

  • Jockey ROI

    Positive

    Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Lucinda Boyd striking at just 7%

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 82%

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%

  • Maps Poorly

    Negative

    Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 48%

  • Solid Run LS

    Positive

    Won last start

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Finished too well winning 3yo+ Mdn Plate at Mildura. Shapes as a rough place prospect.

ILB

Was first to greet the judge when winning by 1L last time at Mildura. The wide gate shouldn't be a problem with plenty of early speed. Slim hope.

RP

Off the mark at the sixth time of asking in a maiden at Mildura when a 1l winner last week; best form so far in last two starts; can't be ruled out.

RSIS

Solid win by 1L last run at Mildura. Has the early pace to burn across from the wide stall.

8Immortal JusticeJ: Toby Atkinson·T: Tyler Donaldson-Aitken157.5kg3 3 1 11 515: 1-1-5$11.00$2.70

Career

15: 1-1-5

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed60%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-1-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Camperdown

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Avoca

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1100m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    3: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    13: 0-1-4

  • Going Soft

    2: 1-0-1

Last starts

  1. 5Wycheproof1400m31 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.85L
  2. 11Swan Hill1600m15 Mar 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD311L
  3. 1Ararat1600m3 Mar 2026 · MDN-SW · SOFT7-0.8
  4. 3Terang1406m20 Feb 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD42.8L
  5. 3Great Western1200m24 Jan 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · SOFT52.5L
  6. 3Burrumbeet1350m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD44.8L
  7. 7Seymour1300m18 Dec 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD45.1L
  8. 8Werribee1100m7 Dec 2025 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.5L

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 9% lower than Career Avg.

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Tyler Donaldson-Aitken in good form, out performing market 71%

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 58% in L100 rides

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 1

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Stationed midfield and never landed a blow at Wycheproof 31 Oct. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Jumped at $9.00 and ran 5th last start at Wycheproof but has drawn the rails. Has won 1 from 2 attempts on a soft track. Watch betting.

RP

Held when fifth of eight over 7f at Wycheproof (handicap) last month; facing a testing assignment and not easy to fancy.

RSIS

At 8/1 finished 5th last run at Wycheproof but has the ideal stall. Will relish the track conditions. Watch for a sign in the market.

9Take The PrizeJ: Jade Smith·T: Dane Smith657.5kg10 7 7 10 936: 5-3-9$34.00$4.60

Career

36: 5-3-9

Rating · IRD

71

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer40%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Werribee

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Horsham

    5: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    2: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1209m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    10: 2-1-2

  • Going Synthetic

    7: 1-1-3

  • Going Good

    18: 2-1-4

Last starts

  1. 9Ballarat Synthetic1200m7 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC10.1L
  2. 10Horsham1400m24 Feb 2026 · BM56 · GOOD310.6L
  3. 7Werribee1400m17 Feb 2026 · 3UP F&M BM56 HCP · GOOD44.4L
  4. 7Burrumbeet1350m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.9L
  5. 10Horsham1400m21 Dec 2025 · BM56 · SOFT715.4L
  6. 1Stawell1300m13 Dec 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD4-2
  7. 7Ararat1600m25 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.5L
  8. 8Mildura1400m4 Nov 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT512.9L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Dane Smith striking at just 3%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are under performing market expectations by -50%

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 37%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Resuming (18-weeks). Usually needs the run and this is short of optimum. Looks a risk fresh.

ILB

Back from a spell. Started at $41.00 and didn't attack the line when 9th last time Ballarat Synthetic. Has the necessary speed to overcome the wide draw. Needs significant improvement.

RP

Last of nine at Ballarat in July; can be a player at this level; back from an absence here; strong contender as shown she can win fairly recently.

RSIS

First run back after a break. At 40/1 didn't find the line when 9th last start Ballarat Synthetic. Has the necessary pace to mitistall the wide draw.

10IliadJ: Liana Wood·T: Lisa Jones957kg7 1 5 1 730: 4-2-1$12.00$2.90

Career

30: 4-2-1

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey80%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed20%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 1-0-1

  • Second-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Swan Hill

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Bendigo

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1103m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    4: 2-0-0

  • Distance 1321m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    2: 0-0-1

  • Going Good

    19: 3-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 1-0-0

Last starts

  1. 7Echuca1312m23 May 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT73.6L
  2. 1Wangaratta1300m3 May 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY8-0.1
  3. 5Werribee1400m11 Apr 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT52.6L
  4. 1Mount Gambier1312m13 Mar 2026 · 0-54 · GOOD4-2.3
  5. 7Stony Creek1600m15 Feb 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD412.3L
  6. 7Murray Bridge1400m4 Feb 2026 · 0-58 · GOOD45.6L
  7. 4Camperdown1400m17 Jan 2026 · 0-56 · GOOD32.3L
  8. 6Burrumbeet1350m1 Jan 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD43.8L

Insights

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are out performing market expectations by 117%

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Wide Draw

    Negative

    Likely to get caught wide

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Blinkers Off

    Positive

    Blinkers coming off this start

Comments

AAP

First-up (25-weeks). Has a tricky draw and rising in weight for return. Could add some value to exotics.

ILB

First up after a break. At $8.00 lost ground in the run home when 7th last run at Echuca. Interesting gear change of blinkers off first time. Watch the betting.

RP

She meets the required standard ability wise; not disgraced in seventh over 6½f at Echuca (handicap) in May; returns from a break here; brings winning form to the table and must be considered.

RSIS

Fresh today. At 7/1 was well beaten when 7th last start at Echuca. Blinkers go off for the first time. The large claim from Liana Wood helps. Watch betting.

11Simply ExcelsJ: Jack Hill·T: Andrew Bobbin358.5kg14 8 10 5 1218: 2-3-3$15.00$3.40

Career

18: 2-3-3

Rating · IRD

84

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating60%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 1-1-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-2

  • Fourth-up

    2: 1-0-0

  • Track Doomben

    3: 1-1-1

  • Track Sunshine Coast

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    4: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1175m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    8: 2-2-2

  • Going Good

    9: 0-1-1

  • Going Heavy

    4: 0-0-2

  • Going Soft

    5: 2-2-0

Last starts

  1. 12Hamilton1400m9 Nov 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD411.06L
  2. 5St Arnaud1100m24 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.6L
  3. 10Manangatang1175m10 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD38.8L
  4. 8Stawell1300m18 May 2026 · 2UP BM56 HCP · HEAVY912.2L
  5. 14Warrnambool1300m7 May 2026 · BM62 · HEAVY1024.5L
  6. 8Horsham1100m27 Apr 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD35.8L
  7. 6Eagle Farm1200m4 Feb 2026 · BM65 · GOOD43.8L
  8. 2Sunshine Coast1200m1 Jan 2026 · CL2 · GOOD40.3L

Insights

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners

  • Gave ground LS

    Negative

    Faded towards the finish last time out

  • Primed

    Positive

    Fitter here racing on a quick back up

Comments

AAP

Long winning drought. On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Hamilton. Could give some cheek at odds.

ILB

Backing up quickly. Just average when 12th last time at Hamilton. Won't be far away during the run. Prefers the sting out of the ground. Must respect.

RP

Useful in this grade; finished towards the rear of 14 at Hamilton over 7f (handicap) on Monday.

RSIS

Racing on a quick back up. Performed below standard when 12th last run at Hamilton. Should come to hand quickly. Likes the cut in the ground with 2 wins. Definite claims for punters.

12Wild Roses GrowScratched6––––

Career

17: 1-1-2

Rating · IRD

72

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    4: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Ararat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat Synthetic

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    1: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    5: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1212m

    1: 1-0-0

  • Distance 1300m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Synthetic

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    9: 1-1-2

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 7Warrnambool1000m29 Oct 2026 · 3UP BM62 HCP · GOOD49.27L
  2. 4Colac800m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.1L
  3. 6Ballarat Synthetic1200m2 July 2026 · CL1 · SYNTHETIC14.2L
  4. 8Ballarat Synthetic1100m16 June 2026 · Benchmark 56 · SYNTHETIC7.5L
  5. 9Kilmore1107m1 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY97L
  6. 10Horsham1100m27 Apr 2026 · 0-62 · GOOD36L
  7. 1Geelong1212m14 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD4-0.1
  8. 7Ararat1200m3 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT74.8L

Insights

  • Trainer Career

    Negative

    Trainer Career S/R is 2%

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 60%

  • Early Splits

    Negative

    Out of races with slow early tempos

  • Well beaten LS

    Negative

    Not competitive last run

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten at Warrnambool off spell at a mammoth price. Others with more appeal.

ILB

Weakened under pressure when 7th last run at Warrnambool but up against weaker rivals.

RP

Finished seventh, beaten a fair way at Warrnambool over 5f (handicap) last month; this is her grade.

RSIS

Weakened to finish 7th last run at Warrnambool but taking on a lower class of opponents.

13Golden AgeScratched5––––

Career

33: 2-2-3

Rating · IRD

74

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    6: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Newcastle

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Sandown

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1012m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1200m

    11: 0-2-2

  • Going Synthetic

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Unknown

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    13: 1-0-2

Last starts

  1. 4Kilmore1212m30 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT52.4L
  2. 12Ballarat Synthetic1400m21 June 2026 · BM56 · SYNTHETIC13.4L
  3. 14Bairnsdale1200m12 June 2026 · BM56 · HEAVY816.9L
  4. 8Werribee1012m30 May 2026 · 2yo+ · SOFT611.7L
  5. 8Sandown1400m28 Jan 2026 · 0 - 66 · GOOD47L
  6. 4Pakenham1200m16 Jan 2026 · 0 - 62 · GOOD43.3L
  7. 1Terang1400m2 Jan 2026 · BM56 · GOOD3-0.8
  8. 3Colac1200m20 Dec 2025 · 0 - 56 · GOOD30.65L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Early Splits

    Positive

    Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Well Placed

    Positive

    Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Midfield and worked home solidly at Kilmore for new stable. Will be fitter second-up. Commands attention here.

ILB

Overtook some late when 4th last time at Kilmore.

RP

He meets the required standard ability wise; respectable display to finish fourth, beaten 2½l at Kilmore on first run for his current trainer last month.

RSIS

Ran past a few when 4th last start at Kilmore.

14FluxScratched3––––

Career

44: 2-10-6

Rating · IRD

83

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey60%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed80%
  • Rating40%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-0-1

  • Second-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    4: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    4: 0-2-0

  • Track Kilmore

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track St Arnaud

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Donald

    3: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1422m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    6: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1200m

    26: 2-8-4

  • Going Good

    22: 0-6-5

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    6: 0-2-0

Last starts

  1. 3Wentworth1200m3 Nov 2026 · BM50 · GOOD4.56L
  2. 2St Arnaud1200m24 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.35L
  3. 8Kilmore1207m13 Oct 2026 · 3UP CG&E BM56 HCP · GOOD48.65L
  4. 3Coleraine1300m25 Sept 2026 · 3UP BM66 HCP · GOOD31.06L
  5. 2Donald1200m12 Sept 2026 · 0 - 56 · GOOD41.8L
  6. 9Ballarat Synthetic1400m18 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC5L
  7. 2Warracknabeal1200m15 Aug 2026 · 0 - 56 · SOFT60.8L
  8. 8Ballarat Synthetic1200m6 Aug 2026 · 3UP BM70 HCP · SYNTHETIC5.3L

Insights

  • Winless Prep

    Negative

    Expect the drought to continue

  • Down In Weight

    Positive

    Drops 4.5kg from LS run

Comments

AAP

Secured third in a staggered finish at Wentworth over this trip. Fits well against this opposition.

ILB

Nice run when 3rd last run at Wentworth and gets some weight taken off.

RP

Respectable effort at Wentworth last week; produced a string of consistent efforts.

RSIS

Honest race when 3rd last start at Wentworth and will appreciate the drop in weight.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.