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Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Race 3 — Mittys Mdn Plate 1000m · jumps

Race notes

  • 3yo+,MDN-SW,Maiden
  • SOFT7
  • Fine
  • 12 runners

Shortest win price

Celestial Blue (8)

2.70

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

  • 1Capital Charlie

Offmidfield

  • 5Zwasp

Firststart

  • 3Shipping Steel
  • 6Frandema
  • 7Hill Of Olives
  • 9Celestial Magnate
  • 10Chantess
  • 12Jewel City

Offpace

  • 11Diamond Heist

Onpace

  • 2Powershare

Leader

  • 4Wyandra
  • 8Celestial Blue

  • Capital Charlie · Negative

    Cold J/T Combo

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Powershare · Positive

    Rider SR

    Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.

  • Shipping Steel · Positive

    Rider SR

    Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.

  • Wyandra · Negative

    Trainer SR

    P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Capital CharlieJ: Craig Newitt·T: D Meagher1159.5kg51: 0-0-0$12.00$3.30

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

87

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed100%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 5Cranbourne1000m16 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD34.96L

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Drawn Poorly

    Negative

    Unfavourable barrier draw

  • Raceday Experience

    Positive

    Wiser for debut run

Comments

AAP

Stepping out for only the second time after battling home at Cranbourne as a market drifter 16 Oct. Worth some thought here.

ILB

Jumped at $5.00 and made ground when closing off to finish 5th last start at Cranbourne and having second race start. Will be hitting the line strongly. Betting is the best guide.

RP

Respectable debut effort (beaten 5l) at Cranbourne over this distance at 4-1 14 days ago; will need to progress to get off the mark.

RSIS

Started at 4/1 and kept chasing when 5th last time at Cranbourne and was on debut last time. Expected to be flashing home. Betting is the best guide.

2PowershareJ: Valentin Le Boeuf·T: R J Stephens1059.5kg4 8 4 5 1023: 0-1-1$101.00$13.00

Career

23: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

70

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed40%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-0-0

  • Second-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Third-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    2: 0-0-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    2: 0-0-0

  • Track Warrnambool

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Cranbourne

    5: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1014m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1100m

    3: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1106m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    6: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    3: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    8: 0-0-1

Last starts

  1. 10Pakenham Synthetic1200m5 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC11.85L
  2. 5Pakenham1200m18 Oct 2024 · Maiden · HEAVY812.5L
  3. 4Cranbourne1200m2 Oct 2024 · Maiden · GOOD42.25L
  4. 8Cranbourne1000m19 Sept 2024 · Maiden · GOOD43.46L
  5. 4Pakenham Synthetic1000m25 Aug 2024 · Maiden · SYNTHETIC4.25L
  6. 5Moe1217m18 Aug 2024 · Maiden · SOFT64.85L
  7. 4Cranbourne1000m1 Aug 2024 · Maiden · SOFT74.55L
  8. 4Pakenham Synthetic1000m18 July 2024 · Maiden · SYNTHETIC6.75L

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 41% better than Career Avg.

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 5%

  • Key Rider

    Positive

    Valentin Le Boeuf 23% above market expected in L100 Rides

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%

  • Key Jockey

    Positive

    Valentin Le Boeuf winning at 17% POT in last 100 rides

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

Comments

AAP

Settled back and always among the cab-catchers at Pakenham Synthetic off long spell. Low percentage horse.

ILB

Jumped at $151.00 and didn't find the line when 10th last start at Pakenham Synthetic. Yet to break maiden status after 23 starts. Not likely to be troubling the more fancied runners today.

RP

Still winless and defeats stacking up (23 on the bounce); finished last of ten here over 6f (maiden) three weeks ago; others have more pressing claims.

RSIS

Odds of 150/1 and didn't attack the line when 10th last time at Pakenham Synthetic. Hasn't broken through maiden grade after 23 runs.

3Shipping SteelJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: Michael Trotter259.5kg–$41.00$6.00

Rating · IRD

72

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Rider SR

    Positive

    Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.

  • Hot J/T Combo

    Positive

    Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races

  • Profitable Trainer

    Positive

    Stable runners going at 31% POT in L100 Runners

  • Nice Barrier

    Positive

    Well drawn from gate 2

  • Market Watch

    Negative

    Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

First foal to race out of a five-time placed mare. Second in latest Crnabourne jumpout. Prefer to see what he does here.

ILB

4yo debutant by Squamosa for Michael Trotter and has a good draw. Watch the market moves.

RP

This son of Squamosa is having his first start under rules; leading claims as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

4yo by Squamosa having first race start for Michael Trotter and gets a favourable stall.

4WyandraJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman659.5kg2 3 2 9 211: 0-7-1$6.50$2.35

Career

11: 0-7-1

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer20%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    3: 0-2-0

  • Second-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Third-up

    1: 0-1-0

  • Fourth-up

    1: 0-0-1

  • Track Pakenham

    3: 0-1-1

  • Track CurrentTrack

    3: 0-1-1

  • Track Sale

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1100m

    2: 0-2-0

  • Distance 1200m

    7: 0-4-1

  • Distance 1400m

    2: 0-1-0

  • Going Heavy

    2: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    3: 0-3-0

  • Going Good

    6: 0-4-1

Last starts

  1. 2Hamilton1100m10 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT50.2L
  2. 9Moe1200m28 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY1016.5L
  3. 2Werribee1100m14 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD41.3L
  4. 3Pakenham1200m1 May 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.5L
  5. 2Pakenham1200m2 Apr 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.4L
  6. 2Cranbourne1200m20 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD33.5L
  7. 7Caulfield Heath1200m4 Mar 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.4L
  8. 4Pakenham1400m7 Nov 2025 · 3Y MDN-SW · HEAVY89L

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    P & K Moody & Coleman striking at just 5%

  • Jockey Booking

    Negative

    Less suitable jockey engaged

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%

  • Trainer Form

    Negative

    Stable out of form, losing 65% Profit on Turnover

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Looked likely but had a real fight on his hands and just missed at Hamilton. Will be fitter second-up. Fits well against this opposition.

ILB

Just shy of the win last start at Hamilton. Should muster plenty of early toe. Strong claims.

RP

A narrow runner-up at 5-4 over 5½f at Hamilton (maiden) 20 days ago; appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs but yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 11; Luke Nolen a notable booking.

RSIS

Competed in a tight contest last run at Hamilton. Has plenty of early pace. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.

5ZwaspJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Shea Eden559.5kg8 8 5 9 724: 0-2-3$61.00$8.00

Career

24: 0-2-3

Rating · IRD

73

Speed map

Offmidfield

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    5: 0-1-0

  • Second-up

    4: 0-0-1

  • Third-up

    4: 0-0-0

  • Fourth-up

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Pakenham

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track CurrentTrack

    3: 0-0-0

  • Track Sale

    6: 0-1-1

  • Distance 1000m

    5: 0-0-1

  • Distance 1008m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1106m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Going Good

    11: 0-1-3

  • Going Heavy

    5: 0-0-0

  • Going Soft

    8: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 7Bairnsdale1000m12 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT74.3L
  2. 9Sale1206m13 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD42.6L
  3. 5Moe1108m8 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · HEAVY86.6L
  4. 8Cranbourne1300m16 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY97.7L
  5. 8Moe1217m3 July 2026 · 2yo+ · HEAVY1011.7L
  6. 6Moe1008m18 June 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY910.1L
  7. 7Pakenham1400m7 Nov 2025 · 4UP MDN-SW · HEAVY88.7L
  8. 9Warrnambool1300m16 Oct 2025 · 3yo+ · SOFT58L

Insights

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%

  • Dist S/R

    Negative

    Poor performer at the distance

  • Winkers Off

    Positive

    Winkers coming off this start

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Had all before him at turn and went home tamely at Bairnsdale over this distance. Hard to warm to here.

ILB

Odds of $12.00 and below par when 7th last run at Bairnsdale. Still a maiden after 24 starts. Might have to make up considerable ground. Struggling this campaign. Needs significant improvement.

RP

Generally struggled of late and yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at 24; finished seventh but wasn't beaten too far (just over 4l, Bairnsdale, dropped to this distance) two weeks ago; others appeal more.

RSIS

Started at 11/1 and below par when 7th last time at Bairnsdale. Yet to break maiden status after 24 runs. Struggling recently with no placings from 6 starts.

6FrandemaJ: Blake Shinn·T: Peter Gelagotis957.5kg–$6.00$2.20

Rating · IRD

90

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey100%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Debutant

    Positive

    First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

$825k purchase. Out of an unraced French mare. Late bloomer heading to the races for the first time after two smart jumpouts. Can make an immediate impact here.

ILB

Initial race appearance 4yo by Frankel for trainer Peter Gelagotis. Respect the betting.

RP

This daughter of Frankel is having her first start under rules; might be one for another day; market may guide as this doesn't look straightforward against rivals with experience.

RSIS

Initial appearance 4yo by Frankel for trainer Peter Gelagotis. Watch betting.

7Hill Of OlivesJ: Jake Noonan·T: J D Sadler857.5kg–$26.00$4.60

Rating · IRD

79

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -60% POT in their L100 Races

  • Still Learning

    Negative

    No race experience

  • Winkers On

    Positive

    Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

Half to city winner Abovethefrostline. Fourth in latest Pakenham jumpout. Market watch advised.

ILB

First appearance at the races 4yo by Cool Aza Beel for John Sadler. Keep your eye on the market.

RP

First start under rules for this four-year-old daughter of Cool Aza Beel; whether she'll be sufficiently clued up remains to be seen so a watching brief the best policy.

RSIS

Debutant 4yo by Cool Aza Beel for John Sadler.

8Celestial BlueJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: Phillip & Tommy Stokes457kg22: 0-1-0$2.70$1.34

Career

2: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed100%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Record

  • First-up

    2: 0-1-0

  • Track Geelong

    1: 0-1-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1125m

    1: 0-1-0

  • Distance 1200m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Heavy

    1: 0-1-0

Last starts

  1. 2Geelong1125m19 June 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY90.1L

Insights

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Camp struggling with S/R just 10%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer Recent

    Negative

    Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%

  • Fast Early

    Positive

    Sectionals suggest goes hard early

  • Resuming

    Negative

    Poor strike rate when first up

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Returns for second campaign (19-weeks). Third behind a smart one in latest Pakenham jumpout. Better for that and can measure up in second racing campaign.

ILB

Resuming after a break. Threw down a serious challenge last start at Geelong and was on debut last time. Will be positive in the run early. Winning chance.

RP

Beaten narrowly at the first time of asking over 5½f at Geelong at 6-1 in June; back from an absence here; must now step up.

RSIS

Resumes from a break. Right in the mix last run at Geelong and having second race start. Should come to hand quickly. Stamps its reason for consideration.

9Celestial MagnateJ: Jason Maskiell·T: J D Sadler757kg–$14.00$3.70

Rating · IRD

76

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer80%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Current SR

    Negative

    Rider’s recent POT is returning 49% lower than Career Avg.

  • Rider Poor SR

    Negative

    Jockey underperforming market expectations by 64% in L100 rides

  • Still Learning

    Negative

    No race experience

Comments

AAP

$16k purchase. Out of a half-sister to Listed winner Blondie. Distant second in latest Pakenham jumpout. Could surprise on debut.

ILB

John Sadler 3yo by Finance Tycoon having first race appearance. Watch the betting.

RP

This son of Finance Tycoon makes debut under rules; should not be ruled out.

RSIS

John Sadler 3yo by Finance Tycoon having first race start.

10ChantessJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes355kg–$4.20$1.75

Rating · IRD

87

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Hot Trainer

    Positive

    Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 53%

  • Trainer ROI

    Positive

    Runners from this stable currently going at 40% POT in L100 Runners

  • Debutant

    Positive

    First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). $200k purchase. Half to Listed winner and stablemate Ndola. Looked smart winning latest Pakenham jumpout. Gets a soft draw and warrants attention on debut.

ILB

3yo by Shamus Award racing as a debutant for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch for a sign in the market.

RP

Her trainer gets plenty of first-time-out winners over this distance; related to Hearcomesthestar, winning form over 5f-7f; deserves respect with signs of encouragement in profile and the hot form of the yard is a bonus.

RSIS

Shamus Award 3yo trained by Will Ben & Jd Hayes on debut. Watch early betting.

11Diamond HeistJ: Fred W Kersley·T: C W Mcdonald1255kg61: 0-0-0$12.00$3.40

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

89

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

  • Jockey40%
  • Trainer100%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
  • Early Speed20%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed80%

Record

  • First-up

    1: 0-0-0

  • Track Ballarat

    1: 0-0-0

  • Distance 1000m

    1: 0-0-0

  • Going Good

    1: 0-0-0

Last starts

  1. 6Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD43.41L

Insights

  • Maps Well

    Positive

    Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%

  • Raceday Experience

    Positive

    Wiser for debut run

  • Class Rise

    Negative

    Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Didn't have the smoothest of runs at Ballarat on debut. Certainly open to improvement off that performance.

ILB

At $4.20 ran 6th last run at Ballarat but fitter for debut run. Has strong claims.

RP

Creditable debut, finishing sixth, beaten 3½l (at Ballarat over this distance) at 100-30 three weeks ago; might be better for the experience although not hard to turn elsewhere.

RSIS

At 10/3 ran 6th last time at Ballarat but having second career run. Expect a forward showing.

12Jewel CityJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: G Eurell155kg–$20.00$4.00

Rating · IRD

79

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

  • Jockey20%
  • Trainer60%
  • Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
  • Early Speed50%
  • Rating50%
  • Closing Speed50%

Insights

  • Trainer SR

    Negative

    Greg Eurell striking at just 7%

  • Cold J/T Combo

    Negative

    Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races

  • Trainer A2E

    Negative

    Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 27%

  • Drawn In

    Positive

    Suited drawn down low

  • Watch Betting

    Negative

    If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Half to Stakes performed Prowling. Moved nicely finishing second in latest Cranbourne jumpout and gets a soft draw. Comes into calculations.

ILB

Ilovethiscity 3yo on debut for trainer Greg Eurell and has drawn to do little work. Watch the market.

RP

Related to Great Duchess, winning form over 5½f-1m; trainer has a good record with first-time-out runners here; should give it a bold bid.

RSIS

Initial race appearance 3yo by Ilovethiscity for Greg Eurell and drawn by the rails.

Odds correct as at . Odds can change.