Shortest win price
Lomu (4)
4.00
Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews
One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.
Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT
Race 4 — Chef's Hat Mdn Plate 1200m · jumps
Race notes
- 3Y MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
- SOFT7
- Fine
- 14 runners
Speed map
Back left · leaders right
Offmidfield
- 13Red Tide
- 16Engulf
Firststart
- 2Berardo
- 7Slugger
- 9Whiskey Blu
- 10Charmingly
- 11Gwen In Rome
Backmarker
- 3Iron Eagle
Midfield
- 4Lomu
Offpace
- 15Mongolian Hero
- 12Storm Bella
- 14Optimus
Leader
- 1Ace Strike
- 8Voltrix
Ace Strike · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Berardo · Negative
Still Learning
No race experience
Iron Eagle · Negative
Class Rise
Racing in stronger company
Lomu · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace
1Ace StrikeJ: Jamie Mott·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr158kg51: 0-0-0$9.00$3.00
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Leader
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey40%
- Trainer80%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed20%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed40%
Record
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Last starts
- 5Sandown1200m9 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT76.4L
Insights
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -47% POT in their L100 Races
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Comments
AAP
Let-up (51-days). Had excuses on debut when in the market. Nice recent jumpout and leading hoop rides. Room to improve.
ILB
Let up. Jumped at $5.00 and didn't attack the line when 5th last start at Sandown but was a debutant last start. Has shown early pace in races to date. Has a good chance.
RP
Never landed a blow on his debut when fifth of seven over this trip at Sandown at 4-1 last month; needs to make above-average progress.
RSIS
Freshened up. Started at 4/1 and couldn't maintain the pace when 5th last run at Sandown but was a debutant last start. Should come to hand quickly. Forward showing expected.
2BerardoJ: Blake Shinn·T: M W Walker1258kg1$7.00$2.50
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey100%
- Trainer80%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed50%
Last starts
- 1Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-2
Insights
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on
Comments
AAP
Trials (2:1-0-0). Half to two time winner Astari. Stronger showing in latest trial and there is winning form out of that. Looks capable of featuring on debut.
ILB
3yo by Hanseatic having initial appearance for Mark Walker. Follow the money.
RP
This son of Hanseatic makes first rules appearance; may be involved with signs of encouragement in profile - form of his yard is an obvious plus.
RSIS
3yo debutant sired by Hanseatic for trainer Mark Walker. Market as guide.
3Iron EagleJ: Jake Noonan·T: E & D Browne958kg3 62: 0-0-1$23.00$4.80
Career
2: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey40%
- Trainer60%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
- Early Speed20%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed80%
Record
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Last starts
- 6Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD33.7L
- 3Moe1000m24 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.75L
Insights
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Comments
AAP
Got back and wasn't totally disgraced at Moe at second start. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Jumped at $6.50 and ran 6th last time at Moe. Likely to get back in the field. Looks hopeful.
RP
Not far behind Mongolian Hero when sixth (Moe) two weeks ago; passed over.
RSIS
Started 11/2 and ran 6th last run at Moe. Might be ridden for luck.
4LomuJ: Brad Rawiller·T: E & D Browne858kg9 2 2 3 25: 0-3-1$4.00$1.75
Career
5: 0-3-1
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey40%
- Trainer60%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed100%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed100%
Record
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-1
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-2-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-1
Going Soft
2: 0-2-0
Last starts
- 2Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT52.25L
- 3Caulfield Heath1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3YC&G MDN-SW · GOOD43.15L
- 2Mornington1000m4 Sept 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT52L
- 2Pakenham1200m2 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L
- 9Caulfield1200m14 Mar 2026 · 2Y SW · GOOD48.8L
Insights
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -54% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Ready To Fire
Positive
Shown something in last few runs
Comments
AAP
Game second only other time over this track and distance. Has benefit of race experience.
ILB
Good performance to run into 2nd beaten by 2 1/4L last start at Seymour and putting a tidy record together. Been in the money 3 from 3 attempts this campaign. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Has arguably shown improved form the last twice; good effort when just over 2l runner-up at Seymour 19 days ago.
RSIS
Rattled home nicely into 2nd beaten by 2 1/4L last start at Seymour and good career start. Been in the top three each attempt recently. Could feature here.
5PercipientScratched4––––
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey20%
- Trainer60%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed50%
Insights
Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Comments
AAP
Trials (2:0-0-0). $180k purchase. Out of a stakes-winning mare and half to a Group 2 winner in the US. Second in two recent jumpouts. May need this.
ILB
Phillip Stokes & Tommy Stokes trained 3yo by New Bay on debut. Respect the betting.
RSIS
3yo by New Bay having initial appearance for trainer Phillip Stokes & Tommy Stokes.
6Pocket WatchScratched5––––
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey20%
- Trainer80%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed50%
Insights
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 53%
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Comments
AAP
First foal to race out of an unplaced French mare. Fourth in latest Cranbourne jumpout. Place looks best.
ILB
Grahame Begg trained 2yo by Tagaloa having first race start. Jockey Daniel Stackhouse is highly regarded. Market as guide.
RSIS
First race appearance 2yo by Tagaloa for Grahame Begg. Jockey Daniel Stackhouse is in form.
7SluggerJ: Logan Bates·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr1358kg–$8.50$2.90
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey60%
- Trainer80%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed50%
Insights
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Comments
AAP
First foal to race out of a city winning mare. Won recent Cranbourne jumpout. Drawn deep but bears close watching.
ILB
Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) trained 3yo runner on debut by Rubick. Watch the betting.
RP
Course debutants from this stable always command respect; already a gelding; others look more obvious on paper; a line drawn through unless betting signals are positive.
RSIS
3yo first starter sired by Rubick for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr).
8VoltrixJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes558kg1 21: 0-1-0$5.00$2.00
Career
1: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Leader
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey20%
- Trainer100%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
- Early Speed100%
- Rating100%
- Closing Speed60%
Record
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1125m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Last starts
- 2Geelong1125m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD30.1L
- 1Seymour800m11 Sept 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)-2
Insights
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 60%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 46% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 8%
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 37 days
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Comments
AAP
Now 5 weeks between runs. Second in recent Flemington jumpout. Right in this.
ILB
Close to claiming the win last start at Geelong and was on debut last time. Has good tactical speed and will be nicely positioned. Absolutely right in this.
RP
Just denied on his debut over 5½f at Geelong showing greenness at 5-4 last month; progress needed on this second career run.
RSIS
Right in the mix last run at Geelong and fitter for debut run. Will be positive in the run early. Good tough competitor that can be supported.
9Whiskey BluJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: M Croston & G Gilmour758kg–$81.00$14.00
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey100%
- Trainer60%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating20%
- Closing Speed50%
Insights
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
Comments
AAP
$35k purchase. Out of a Group 3-winning mare. Second in latest Pakenham jumpout. Others profiling stronger.
ILB
3yo by Blue Point having first race appearance for M Croston, G Croston & Gilmour Croston. Watch the market moves.
RP
First start under rules for this son of Blue Point; respected with signs of encouragement in profile.
RSIS
M Croston, G Croston & Gilmour Croston 3yo by Blue Point having first race start.
10CharminglyJ: Jye Mcneil·T: C J Waller1056kg–$19.00$4.40
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey80%
- Trainer80%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed50%
Record
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Insights
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -26% POT in their L100 Races
Backup
Positive
Racing again inside one week
Comments
AAP
$180k NZB Karaka yearling. Out of a half-sister to multiple group one winner Melody Belle. Not knocked about in two recent Flmeington jumpouts. Well bred and must be included.
ILB
Per Incanto 3yo on debut for trainer Christian Frederick Waller. Watch betting.
RP
Sire's stock can be smart performers; related to Grade 3 winner Cellarmaster; trainer gets fair share of winning newcomers over this sort of trip; should not be far away.
RSIS
Christian Frederick Waller trained 3yo by Per Incanto having first start.
11Gwen In RomeJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman656kg–$5.50$2.15
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Firststart
Figures
- Jockey20%
- Trainer20%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
- Early Speed50%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed50%
Insights
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 41% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 64% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves
Comments
AAP
$130k purchase. Out of a full sister to Listed winner Spending to Win. Kicked clear to win latest Pakenham jumpout. Looks suitably placed.
ILB
3yo by Dirty Work having first start for Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody. Follow the money.
RP
Related to multiple race winner El Morzillo (5f-6½f); stable is well capable of preparing youngsters to win races on limited experience; rates a likely contender.
RSIS
3yo by Dirty Work having first start for trainer Katherine Coleman & Peter G Moody.
12Storm BellaJ: Patrick Moloney·T: M M Laurie1456kg41: 0-0-0$41.00$7.50
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Offpace
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey80%
- Trainer100%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
- Early Speed20%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed40%
Record
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1207m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Last starts
- 4Kilmore1207m13 Oct 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD45.5L
Insights
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 10% POT in L100 Runners
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Comments
AAP
Stepping out for only the second time after battling home at Kilmore at longer odds 13 Oct. Others carry more punch.
ILB
Odds of $19.00 and was outmatched late when 4th last run at Kilmore and fitter for debut run. Will struggle to compete in this race.
RP
Finished fourth of ten on her debut at Kilmore at 18-1 two weeks ago; needs to make above-average progress.
RSIS
Was 18/1 and getting tired late when 4th last run at Kilmore and having second career run.
13Red TideJ: Jackson Radley·T: G Eurell458kg6 42: 0-0-0$15.00$4.20
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Offmidfield
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey40%
- Trainer60%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
- Early Speed20%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed100%
Record
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Last starts
- 4Cranbourne1200m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD34.25L
- 6Caulfield Heath1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3YC&G MDN-SW · GOOD44.36L
Insights
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 27%
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Comments
AAP
Trimmed margin late at Cranbourne at second appearance. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Started $14.00 and moved ahead of some to finish 4th last time at Cranbourne. Has ability but this is challenging.
RP
Finished fourth but wasn't beaten too far (just over 4l) at Cranbourne 14 days ago.
RSIS
Odds of 13/1 and overtook some late when 4th last start at Cranbourne.
14OptimusJ: Jett Stanley·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes358kg4 8 63: 0-0-0$11.00$3.50
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey100%
- Trainer100%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
- Early Speed100%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed40%
Record
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
2: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Last starts
- 6Cranbourne1200m9 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD34.4L
- 8Sandown1400m25 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT59.3L
- 4Sandown1300m25 Feb 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT53L
Insights
Jockey Booking
Positive
Jett Stanley 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 60%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 46% POT in L100 Runners
Key Jockey
Positive
Jett Stanley winning at 23% POT in last 100 rides
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Comments
AAP
Comfortably beaten at Cranbourne for new trainer. Prefer to see.
ILB
Started at $26.00 and was well beaten when 6th last start at Cranbourne. Has some claims.
RP
Not beaten that far on debut for new trainer at Cranbourne three weeks ago.
RSIS
At 25/1 weakened under pressure when 6th last start at Cranbourne. Watch the betting.
15Mongolian HeroJ: Ben Allen·T: Peter Gelagotis258kg3 11 42: 0-0-0$5.50$2.15
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Offpace
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey60%
- Trainer80%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
- Early Speed100%
- Rating60%
- Closing Speed60%
Record
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Last starts
- 4Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD32L
- 11Flemington1400m16 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD410.9L
- 3Caulfield Heath1000m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.2L
Insights
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Comments
AAP
Held up at a critical moment at Moe. Drawn to get a soft run and can atone.
ILB
Jumped at $3.20 and finished 4th last start at Moe but drawn nicely. Expecting a strong showing.
RP
Was a shade disappointing when fourth (11-5) at Moe where just ahead of Iron Eagle 12 days ago.
RSIS
Started 11/5 and finished 4th last time at Moe but drawn nicely. One of the punters top hopes at a very generous price.
16EngulfJ: Fred W Kersley·T: C W Mcdonald1156kg52: 0-0-0$11.00$3.50
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
BackLead
Figures
- Jockey40%
- Trainer100%
- Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
- Early Speed100%
- Rating40%
- Closing Speed50%
Record
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Last starts
- 5Ballarat1000m9 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD42.15L
Insights
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Comments
AAP
Beaten but by no means disgraced at career opener. Wiser for it and rise in distance should help.
ILB
Jumped at $7.50 and inched into 5th last start at Ballarat and fitter for debut run. Tough ask.
RP
Finished fifth on her debut, albeit only beaten just over 2l at Ballarat over 5f at 13-2 three weeks ago; should benefit for having a run under her belt.
RSIS
Odds of 13/2 and was making up some late ground when 5th last run at Ballarat and having second race start.
Odds correct as at . Odds can change.