Pakenham (VIC) horses tips & previews

30 Oct, 5:26 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Pakenham (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Fri 30 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT

Race 2 — Ladbrokes Tote Win +10% In October Mdn Plate 1400m · jumps Fri 30 Oct, 6:15 pm AEDT

Race notes

3yo+,F&M MDN-SW,Maiden
SOFT7
Fine
13 runners

Shortest win price

Shemesh (11)

2.00

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

5Plucky Enuff

Midfield

8Call Me Later

Offpace

10Helizangel
13Moonlight Romance
4Immortal Diva

Onpace

6Shields

Firststart

3Galway Gal
7Briagolong
11Shemesh
12Zapatch

Leader

1Celestial Ruler
2Fierce Ruby
9Capital Affair

Celestial Ruler · Negative
Trainer SR
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 10%
Fierce Ruby · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Galway Gal · Positive
Trainer Form
In form stable, out performing market expectations 53%
Immortal Diva · Negative
Trainer SR
Shane Bottomley striking at just 2%

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1Celestial RulerJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: Phillip & Tommy Stokes858kg8 6 6 2 42: 0-0-0$21.00$3.90

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Kyneton1203m8 Oct 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · SOFT57.75L
2Traralgon1430m9 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)0.3L
6Caulfield Heath1500m26 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.8L
6Kilmore1000m10 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)7.4L
8Pakenham Synthetic1200m2 June 2025 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC12.2L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 10%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Safely held but not totally disgraced at Kyneton at longer odds. Home track and blinkers first time a positive. Needs to lift.

ILB

Showed some merit late when 4th last time at Kyneton. Should come to hand quickly. Watch betting.

Was fourth of nine, beaten 8l, over 6f at Kyneton (maiden) on debut for new trainer 22 days ago; others more likely.

RSIS

Made ground when closing off to finish 4th last time at Kyneton. Has early pace and positions nicely. Respect the betting.

2Fierce RubyJ: Adam Mc Cabe·T: Michael Trotter658kg11 8 2 6 45: 0-1-0$51.00$6.50

Career

5: 0-1-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-1-0
Track Wodonga
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-1-0
Going Synthetic
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Kyneton1454m8 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT53.85L
6Wodonga1590m15 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD47.75L
2Wangaratta1400m23 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT70.3L
8Ballarat Synthetic1200m6 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC12.5L
11Pakenham Synthetic1100m20 July 2026 · 2yo+ · SYNTHETIC7.7L
5Pakenham Synthetic1000m7 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC5.7L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 29% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 31% POT in L100 Runners
Hot Jockey
Positive
Adam Mc Cabe in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 15%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ex Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in Victoria. Not disgraced at Kyneton at $31. Looks more a place prospect.

ILB

Was $31.00 and finished 4th last start at Kyneton. First start for a new trainer. Likely to be well placed early. Prefer in something a lot easier.

Fair effort when beaten just under 4l, finishing fourth of nine at Kyneton over 7f (maiden) three weeks ago; five-race maiden but has managed to finish second; runs for a new trainer here; easy enough to take on.

RSIS

Was 30/1 and came in 4th last time at Kyneton. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Racing for a new trainer.

3Galway GalJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes958kg5$9.00$2.70

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

5Caulfield Heath1000m26 Mar 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)3.2L

Insights

Trainer Form
Positive
In form stable, out performing market expectations 53%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 40% POT in L100 Runners
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
First Starter
Positive
Not raced previously

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). Out of a half-sister to Listed winner Outdo. Asked for an effort when finishing second in latest Flemington jumpout. Stable has taken their time with her and prefer to see here.

ILB

4yo first starter by Ghaiyyath for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch the market moves.

Trainer more than capable of getting one ready first time out; needs to be respected with signs of encouragement in profile and the stable is hot at the moment.

RSIS

4yo debutant sired by Ghaiyyath for trainer Will Ben & Jd Hayes. Watch the market moves.

4Immortal DivaJ: Logan Mcneil·T: S C Bottomley758kg8 4 7 9 819: 0-0-0$101.00$12.00

Career

19: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
3: 0-0-0
Track Tatura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1980m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
11: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Mornington1500m22 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.47L
9Cranbourne1400m16 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD317.65L
7Kilmore1450m28 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD310.65L
4Ballarat1200m18 Sept 2026 · 3UP F&M MDN-SW · GOOD47.5L
8Mornington1000m4 Sept 2026 · 4UP MDN-SW · SOFT55.4L
6Ballarat Synthetic1000m31 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC10L
7Pakenham Synthetic1000m24 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC3.3L
11Pakenham Synthetic1200m16 Aug 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC7.5L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Shane Bottomley striking at just 2%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 37%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 15%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
Not Trustworthy
Negative
May be competing at this level for some time

Comments

AAP

Performance just fair at Mornington at $151. Others more persuasive.

ILB

Racing on a quick back up. At $151.00 looked outclassed when 8th last time at Mornington and will have to carry extra weight. Hasn't placed in 19 attempts. In a lot of trouble.

Will need to improve upon some moderate recent runs and winless with run of consecutive defeats standing at 19; not beaten too far when eighth of ten over 7½f at Mornington (maiden) a week ago; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.

RSIS

On a quick back up. Was 150/1 and didn't find the line when 8th last start at Mornington and rising in weight. Unplaced in career. Has struggled so far lately.

5Plucky EnuffJ: Patrick Moloney·T: R D Griffiths1158kg5 41: 0-0-0$6.00$2.10

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SOFT53L
5Pakenham Synthetic750m7 July 2026 · Barrier Trial · SYNTHETIC4.8L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -31% POT in their L100 Races
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Went back to last and hit the line strongly on debut. Extra trip may assist. Right in the mix.

ILB

Got going late when 4th last time at Seymour and was on debut last time. Always seems to find the line well. Watch the betting.

Solid effort first time out (6f, Seymour) at 25-1 19 days ago; hard to see her getting off the mark second time up.

RSIS

Passed some rivals in the late stages when 4th last start at Seymour and was on debut last time. Shows very good closing pace. Can't leave out of your calculations.

6ShieldsJ: Fred W Kersley·T: C W Mcdonald158kg5 42: 0-0-0$18.00$3.80

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1009m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

4Bairnsdale1200m12 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · SOFT77.2L
5Echuca1009m19 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD41.42L

Insights

Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Patiently handled and only battled to wire at Bairnsdale at second appearance. More a minor money chance here.

ILB

Odds of $14.00 and was making up some late ground when 4th last run at Bairnsdale and gets a favourable draw. Has early speed and positions nicely. Could feature here.

Finished fourth, beaten 7l, over 6f at Bairnsdale (maiden) two weeks ago; is passed over.

RSIS

Started 13/1 and improved late to finish 4th last run at Bairnsdale and has the ideal stall. Has shown early pace in races to date. Could feature here.

7BriagolongJ: Carleen Hefel·T: D J Walkley455.5kg–$101.00$12.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 49%
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

$15k purchase. Dam of two foals to race, both winners. Sixth and fourth in two latest jumpouts. Benefit of decent alley but one to watch at this stage.

ILB

First time at the races 3yo by Kermadec for Damien Walkley. Respect the betting.

Related to 1m½f winner Chayse 'N' Storms; sire's progeny have shown a preference for softer goings; she isn't without hope.

RSIS

3yo debutant by Kermadec for trainer Damien Walkley.

8Call Me LaterJ: Daniel Stackhouse·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman255.5kg51: 0-0-0$6.50$2.25

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Midfield

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

5Cranbourne1000m16 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD36.15L

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -64% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Hit the line powerfully over an unsuitable trip last start. Quickly up in distance for second run and looks well placed.

ILB

Passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last start at Cranbourne and having second career run. Rising in distance. Can find a nice position from the draw. Not at all out of this race.

Beaten on her debut at Cranbourne over 5f at 20-1 two weeks ago; needs to make above-average progress.

RSIS

Moved through the field into 5th last start at Cranbourne and fitter for debut run. Racing over more ground. Has a positive stall. Could be in the mix.

9Capital AffairJ: Luke Nolen·T: P G Moody & Katherine Coleman355.5kg8 5 11 64: 0-0-0$20.00$4.00

Career

4: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Cranbourne1000m16 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD36.55L
11Caulfield Heath1100m16 Sept 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD414.61L
5Bendigo1000m13 May 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · GOOD43.2L
8Pakenham1000m23 Apr 2026 · 2Y MDN SW · GOOD44L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 40% below Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 5%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -32% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 62%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 65% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 44% in L100 rides
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Ordinary performance in small field at Cranbourne when second-up. Rise in distance suits and Nolen sticks. Place best.

ILB

Was $18.00 and lacklustre showing when 6th last start at Cranbourne but going up in distance. Has plenty of early speed. Others make far more appeal.

Attempting to get off the mark at the fifth time of asking (fifth her best finish so far); close up behind Call Me Later when sixth over 5f at Cranbourne (maiden) 14 days ago; others appeal more stepping into the unknown over new trip.

RSIS

Started 17/1 and underperformed when 6th last time at Cranbourne but going over more ground. Will be positive in the run early.

10HelizangelJ: Jackson Radley·T: E & D Browne1355.5kg4 62: 0-0-0$6.00$2.15

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed100%
Rating50%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield Heath
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

6Sandown1300m1 July 2026 · 2YF HCP · HEAVY98.7L
4Caulfield Heath1200m17 June 2026 · 2Y HCP · SOFT61L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Second campaign (17-weeks). Won recent Pakenham jumpout. Sound claims fresh in this affair.

ILB

Back from a break. Was $6.50 and well beaten when 6th last run at Sandown but will appreciate the drop in grade. Will appreciate the drop in weight. Must be considered here.

Last of six at Sandown over 6½f (handicap) in July; has had some time off; others more likely.

RSIS

Resuming after a break. Was 11/2 and mediocre display when 6th last run at Sandown but drops back to a suitable grade. Dropping weight. Should not be left out of your thoughts.

11ShemeshJ: Blake Shinn·T: M W Walker555.5kg5 5 4$2.00$1.26

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

4Caulfield Heath1000m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)2L
5Caulfield Heath1000m14 May 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.7L
5Caulfield Heath850m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)2.8L

Insights

On Debut
Positive
First race start

Comments

AAP

Trials (4:0-0-0). $300k purchase. Half to Group 2 Villiers winner Brutality. Eye catching recent Cranbourne jumpout and B Shinn sticks. Looks hard to beat.

ILB

Racing as a debutant 3yo by The Autumn Sun for trainer Mark Walker. Betting is the best guide.

There's hope from the pedigree that she has some ability; related to 6½f winner Plenary; entitled to respect with signs of encouragement in profile - form of her yard is an obvious plus.

RSIS

Initial race appearance 3yo by The Autumn Sun for trainer Mark Walker. Betting as a guide.

12ZapatchJ: Craig Newitt·T: K & K Keys1255.5kg–$101.00$13.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 23%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note

Comments

AAP

Full sister to two-time winner Purler Patch. Sixth in latest jumpout. Gets blinkers for debut and this looks a suitable trip to start career.

ILB

Ken Keys & Kasey Keys 3yo by Soul Patch on debut. Market as guide.

This daughter of Soul Patch makes debut under rules; likely to be a contender.

RSIS

3yo runner on debut by Soul Patch for Ken Keys & Kasey Keys.

13Moonlight RomanceJ: Joe Bowditch·T: Ms N Shelton1058kg9 5 7 6 612: 0-0-1$31.00$4.80

Career

12: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer20%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Record

First-up
4: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-1
Distance 1415m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 0-0-1

Last starts

6Pakenham Synthetic1400m5 Oct 2026 · 4yo+ · SYNTHETIC4.07L
6Geelong1525m23 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD37.25L
7Sale1415m13 Sept 2026 · 4yo+ · GOOD43.6L
5Pakenham Synthetic1200m24 Aug 2026 · MDN-SW · SYNTHETIC2.7L
9Pakenham Synthetic1400m3 Aug 2026 · 3yo+ · SYNTHETIC13.5L
7Pakenham Synthetic1100m20 July 2026 · 2yo+ · GOOD38.3L
12Moe1100m19 Oct 2025 · 4UP MDN-SW · GOOD49.6L
6Yarra Valley1514m31 Mar 2025 · Maiden · SOFT56.27L

Insights

Trainer SR
Negative
Noni Shelton striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 51%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Trimmed margin late at Pakenham Synthetic over this distance. Others carry more punch.

ILB

At $31.00 came in 6th last time at Pakenham Synthetic and hoping that the added weight won't hurt. Trying to win after 11 runs. Has struggled so far this campaign. Cannot be tipped.

Not beaten that far in sixth (4l) three weeks ago.

RSIS

Started 30/1 and ran 6th last start at Pakenham Synthetic and carrying more weight than last time. Trying to win after 11 runs.

Odds correct as at Fri 30 Oct, 5:20 am AEDT. Odds can change.