Shortest win price
Princess Of Sol (12)
4.20
We head to Seymour for a 2015m maiden plate on a Good 4 track under fine skies. Looking at the early win market order, Chocolate Freckles holds the mantle as the shortest priced runner, closely followed by Princess Of Sol, My Rosalie, and Zverev rounding out the leading market fancies for this test over the staying trip.
The value sits with Chocolate Freckles, who comes in with solid credentials after a vastly improved performance when running into the minors at Mornington over 1500m last time out. That effort yielded the fastest overall finishing sectionals, suggesting the step up in distance will suit as an emergency that missed out on an Oaks berth last week. Zverev is another capturing attention in the market despite a stable running below market expectations, having done the heavy lifting before dropping anchor at Yarra Glen previously while boasting a prior placing at this exact track. Meanwhile, Princess Of Sol showed plenty of grit when giving her all to finish third at Bendigo over 1600m, and the rapid rise in trip poses an intriguing test for her staying credentials.
Further down the order, My Rosalie brings sound campaign form including a fourth at Warrnambool and a fifth at Wangaratta, though map considerations suggest she may need some luck from her backmarker speed group lane. Grey Sabre is expected to roll forward from barrier 5 to take up the leader role early, which could prove advantageous on this circuit if allowed to dictate terms. While several runners come via stables or combinations currently struggling to hit market expectations, the bold play is to lean into the progressive profile of Chocolate Freckles building on that strong Mornington minor placing.
Shortest win price
Princess Of Sol (12)
4.20
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Grey Sabre · Negative
Cold J/T Combo
Combo are under performing market expectations by -69%
Vadar · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Windsor Chariot · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Zverev · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Career
16: 0-1-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Track Murtoa
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1717m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1968m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1980m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
9: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
5: 0-1-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -69%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Every chance but compounded at Mornington over longer assignment. Looks a safer place proposition.
ILB
Jumped at $8.00 and didn't find the line when 7th last start at Mornington and will be dropping in distance. Should jump out and bowl along. A 16 start maiden. Needs a mighty effort to win this.
RP
Form has been a bit up and down of late and still winless and defeats stacking up (16 on the bounce); seventh beaten 10l at Mornington over 1m4f (maiden) last month; a lot on his plate here and passed over.
RSIS
At 7/1 gave away some ground when 7th last start at Mornington and dropping back to a shorter trip. Will be pushing for a forward position early.
Career
11: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Terang
1: 0-0-0
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-1-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Ready To Strike
Positive
Can be rewarded for recent consistent form
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Solid rally into the placings on a soft deck at Traralgon. This is a deeper affair.
ILB
Good effort to run 2nd beaten by 3 1/4L last start at Traralgon and getting better in recent performances. Trying to win after 11 runs. May find these too slick.
RP
Signs of improvement on last two runs but still winless and defeats stacking up (11 on the bounce); solid second over 1m1½f at Traralgon (maiden) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Good performance to run into 2nd last start at Traralgon and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Trying to win after 11 runs.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
95
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 18% better than Career Avg.
Hot Trainer
Positive
Ben, Will & Jd Hayes in good form, out performing market 34%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 21% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Supported in early runs although went home tamely at Swan Hill at second appearance at $4.40. Significantly up in distance and can play a role.
ILB
Jumped at $4.40 and came in 5th last start at Swan Hill. Should improve here. Commands respect.
RP
Not beaten that far at Swan Hill over 1m (maiden) last month; unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role.
RSIS
At 10/3 finished 5th last run at Swan Hill. Expected to rebound. Should go well.
Career
3: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1429m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1968m
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 28%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 29%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Did the donkey work then dropped anchor at Yarra Glen latest outing. Has figured In the placings here. Right in this.
ILB
Was $4.40 and couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last start at Yarra Valley. Overlooking the last run. Has plenty of early speed. Will attract plenty of interest.
RP
Held in sixth upped to this distance (Yarra Glen) behind Bling Baby, last month; must be high on list as shown he can be competitive fairly recently.
RSIS
Was 10/3 and folded up in the straight when 6th last run at Yarra Vstall. Happy to forgive that run. Should muster plenty of early pace. Has to be in the finish.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Hamilton
2: 0-0-0
Track St Arnaud
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 2
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to threaten at St Arnaud last outing. Keener on others.
ILB
Odds of $10.00 and tailed off to finish 8th last time at St Arnaud but has a good draw. Likely to get back. Entitled to be a big price.
RP
Out of the frame when eighth (St Arnaud) upped to this distance three weeks ago; attempting to open his account at the fourth time of asking; he can be taken on.
RSIS
At 9/1 tailed off to finish 8th last run at St Arnaud but has a positive stall. Likely to get back in the run.
Career
1: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
86
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
AAP
Left a decent impression on debut at Wangaratta when fancied 26 Oct. Significantly up in distance for second outing. Sound claims.
ILB
Was $3.50 and improved when 5th last run at Wangaratta and was on debut last time. Will be aiming for a soft run from the draw.
RP
Far from disgraced (beaten just over 2l) on his debut at Wangaratta at 5-2 last month; hard to see him getting off the mark second time up.
RSIS
Was 5/2 and ran on into 5th last time at Wangaratta and having second career run. Drawn by the rails.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 44% better than Career Avg.
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 272%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Lachlan King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 55%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
On pace but soon under pressure and he knocked up badly at Swan Hill at second outing. Quickly up in trip but others carry more punch.
ILB
Started $15.00 and was well beaten when 7th last start at Swan Hill. Should be rolling forward early from the wide barrier. Rough chance.
RP
Finished behind Windsor Chariot at Swan Hill over 1m (maiden) when beaten 7l (seventh of eight) last month; cannot be ignored.
RSIS
Was 14/1 and struggled with the pace when 7th last run at Swan Hill. Should be rolling forward early from the wide stall.
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Donald
1: 0-1-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1350m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-1-0
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Raced in back half and never likely at Echuca last start. Blinkers first time and needs to put best foot forward now.
ILB
Odds of $4.40 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last start at Echuca. Gets back and needs luck. Needs to find a lot more.
RP
Without a win in three attempts although has finished second; finished just behind Lady Of Alsace when ninth last month at Echuca upped to 1m2½f; others more likely.
RSIS
Odds of 10/3 and couldn't stay in touch when 9th last time at Echuca. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 50%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Went home fairly at Wangaratta at $3.80. Among the dangers.
ILB
Started $3.80 and moved through the field into 4th last time at Wangaratta. Could be in the mix.
RP
Performed below market expectations when fourth two weeks ago (Wangaratta) upped to this trip; others appeal more.
RSIS
Odds of 11/4 and outpaced some runners late when 4th last start at Wangaratta. Betting is the best guide.
Career
9: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Yarra Valley
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1968m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
3: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Brian McGrath striking at just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 26%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Improver
Positive
Poised to improve on recent form here
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not disgraced at Yarra Glen at $14. Goes into wider exotics.
ILB
Odds of $14.00 and moved ahead of some to finish 4th last run at Yarra Valley. Will need everything to go right.
RP
Out of the frame (beaten 3½l in fourth) last month at Yarra Glen upped to this distance; yet to open her account after nine starts; others appeal more with several rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Started at 13/1 and advanced late into 4th last time at Yarra Vstall.
Career
9: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
2: 0-0-1
Track Swan Hill
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
8: 0-1-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 29% better than Career Avg.
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Form sound so far this campaign. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
Odds of $5.50 and got going late when 5th last time at Wangaratta. Likely to get back in the run. Others make far more appeal.
RP
Yet to get off the mark and losing run stands at nine; close up behind Soaring Legend when fifth at Wangaratta two weeks ago upped to this distance; this is competitive and hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Was 9/2 and closed off nicely when 5th last run at Wangaratta. Does take a while to get into stride.
Career
9: 0-1-2
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 0-0-0
Second-up
2: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1887m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2007m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
5: 0-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 54% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
M & L Kavanagh striking at just 2%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 67%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Handily placed and gave her all at Bendigo second-up at double-figure odds. Quickly up in trip. First four player.
ILB
Did well to finish 3rd last time at Bendigo. Appears tested in this event.
RP
Not beaten far when third at 20-1 over 1m at Bendigo (maiden) last month; has arguably shown improved form the last twice but yet to open her account after nine starts; Luke Nolen booked.
RSIS
Strong effort when finishing 3rd last run at Bendigo.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1450m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1700m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Gap In Runs
Negative
Not raced for 28 days
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Started $26 when safely held at Warrnambool last outing. Horror draw and will need luck.
ILB
Finished 8th last run at Warrnambool.
RP
Finished just behind My Rosalie when eighth over 1m½f at Warrnambool (maiden) last month; hard to dismiss.
RSIS
Ran 8th last run at Warrnambool.
Career
3: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-1-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Moe
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 28% better than Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
P & H Carey & Walker striking at just 3%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -30% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 61%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Better for last start
Positive
Improved with last few runs
AAP
A vastly improved performance when the Impending 3year-old ran into the minors at Mornington latest outing. Was an emergency and didn't get a start in the Oaks last Thursday. Looks to have ability.
ILB
Just shy of the win last run at Mornington and going up in trip. Likely to get back in the field. Watch betting.
RP
Went off 18-1 when good runner-up over 7½f at Mornington (maiden) last month; career moving upwards; big chance.
RSIS
Right in the mix last time at Mornington and racing over a longer distance. Likely to get back. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
3: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Manangatang
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1312m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1590m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Well beaten LS
Negative
Not competitive last run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Failed to flatter at Wangaratta last outing. First real test of stamina here. Looking elsewhere.
ILB
Started $81.00 and clearly outclassed when 8th last start at Wangaratta. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Best to watch and see.
RP
Behind Fiorente Charm over 1m at Wangaratta (maiden) when beaten 7l (eighth of ten) two weeks ago.
RSIS
At 80/1 moderate showing when 8th last run at Wangaratta. Gets back and needs luck.
Career
6: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1525m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
M & L Kavanagh striking at just 2%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 67%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 71% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Ridden cold and never in the picture at Kilmore. Nugent sticks but is hard to warm to here.
ILB
Jumped at $26.00 and disappointing run when 8th last start at Kilmore. Hard to see it being competitive today.
RP
Beaten 10l in eighth over 1m at Kilmore (maiden) two weeks ago.
RSIS
Started 25/1 and unsatisfactory performance when 8th last time at Kilmore.
Career
9: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
4: 0-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Limited
Negative
Hasn’t featured at all in all career runs
Had Chances
Negative
Still in maiden grade after several runs
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Echuca when drifting in the betting. Prefer others.
ILB
Started at $10.00 and came in 5th last start at Echuca.
RP
Held when fifth beaten 9l (Echuca) three weeks ago upped to 1m2½f.
RSIS
Started 9/1 and finished 5th last start at Echuca.