Shortest win price
Chip In (6)
2.15
Seymour hosts a maiden plate over 1600 metres at 4:30 pm AEDT in fine conditions on good ground. The win market opens tightest on Chip In, with The Underquoter second elect, Te Taniwha third, and Tempered Edge fourth. This is a race where the form edges are thin and the recent trial work counts. Chip In carries 58 kilograms, one of the lighter weights in the field, and maps offmidfield from barrier three. The Underquoter, also at 58 kilograms, rates 88 on the IRD scale—highest in the field—but is drawn back in barrier six as a backmarker.
Chip In's form is workable rather than flashy: a seventh at Sale over 1400 metres in heavy ground at second start, then a fifth at Seymour over 1200 metres in soft going. The track is familiar and the extra 400 metres should sharpen the effort. Luke Nolen is engaged, though his recent strike rate sits 54 per cent lower than his career average, and trainer P G Moody's recent camp is just 6 per cent. The counter is Tempered Edge, who ran second to winners over this distance at Ballarat in heavy ground and fifth at Warrnambool in good conditions. Ryan Houston rode that Ballarat effort and clocked the fastest finishing sectional last start—a sign the horse is hitting top gear. Tempered Edge rates 78, matching Te Taniwha, but has genuine form at the trip and appears the harder fit.
The Underquoter projects the longest odds for a horse rated highest on the card. Second-up from Kyneton, where he finished fourth, the gelding has early speed—an asset at Seymour—but has not yet broken maiden status. Te Taniwha, drawn ideally from barrier one, returns after 28 weeks and is building form, finishing third in a barrier trial at Colac over 1000 metres. Brad Rawiller steers Poorlittlerichkid, who leads from barrier five and whose recent strike rate sits 17 per cent above his career average; the trainer, Heath Chalmers, holds a 4 per cent strike rate, but Rawiller's form edge is real. The value leans toward Tempered Edge as the most credible form reference over the distance, yet Chip In's recent Seymour exposure and weight advantage at the likely pace create genuine appeal at a shorter price.
Shortest win price
Chip In (6)
2.15
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Onpace
Leader
Brighthill · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Money Wheel · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 29%
Poorlittlerichkid · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 17% better than Career Avg.
Te Taniwha · Negative
Jockey Booking
Less suitable jockey engaged
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Ararat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -33% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 43%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
AAP
Second campaign (24-weeks). Fifth in two Cranbourne jumpouts. Maps to get a sweet run and can show more this time in.
ILB
Fresh after a break. Was $4.60 and ran 5th last start at Pakenham. Looking for an improved run and drawn nicely. Likely to be well placed early. Winning chance.
RP
Not beaten too far when fifth at Pakenham six months ago; returning from a layoff here; leading claims.
RSIS
Resuming after a break. Started at 7/2 and ran 5th last start at Pakenham. Giving another go here and can find a nice position from the draw. Expected to be competitive.
Career
20: 0-4-4
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
5: 0-2-0
Second-up
3: 0-1-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Kembla Grange
1: 0-0-1
Track Kilmore
2: 0-0-1
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1457m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1543m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
5: 0-0-1
Going Good
14: 0-4-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
5: 0-0-2
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 29%
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Safely held but not totally disgraced at Kilmore at big odds. Can't enthuse.
ILB
Was $61.00 and came in 5th last time at Kilmore. Hasn't broken through maiden grade after 20 runs. Facing a difficult task today.
RP
Still searching for his first win after 20 attempts; held in fifth at Kilmore over 7½f (maiden) last month; tends to find at least one too good; may be vulnerable.
RSIS
At 60/1 came in 5th last run at Kilmore. Still in maiden grade after 20 starts.
Career
7: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
75
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Manangatang
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
2: 0-0-1
Track Horsham
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-1
Going Synthetic
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 17% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 4%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 95%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Pushed forward and fought on solidly second-up. Leads, handy. Latest suggested improvement and can build further.
ILB
Maintained a solid pace but eventually weakened to finish 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Swan Hill. Should be going forward early. Facing a difficult task.
RP
Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; solid effort in defeat to finish third after going off 25-1 at Swan Hill 16 days ago.
RSIS
Set a strong tempo before tiring to place 3rd beaten by 1 3/4L last start at Swan Hill. Won't be far away during the run.
Career
5: 0-0-2
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Werribee
1: 0-0-0
Track Colac
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1418m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
4: 0-0-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Up In Dist
Positive
Racing at a more suitable distance
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Returns for second campaign (28-weeks). Looked to be finding his feet over some longer assignments last time in. 1600m a fair starting point.
ILB
Resuming after a 28 week spell. At $201.00 tailed off to finish 17th last time at Flemington but challenged by less formidable competitors. Should muster plenty of early speed. Will be a difficult assignment.
RP
Finished tailed off at Flemington upped to 1m6f in April in a Listed race; signs of improvement on last two runs; has had some time off; should give it a bold bid now down in grade.
RSIS
First run back from a 28 week break. Started at 200/1 and tailed off to finish 17th last run at Flemington but up against a less competitive field.
Career
8: 0-2-1
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Bendigo
1: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
2: 0-1-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1447m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
4: 0-2-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Drawn Poorly
Negative
Unfavourable barrier draw
Form Revival
Positive
Turning form around with last couple
Wet To Dry
Negative
Coming from a wet to dry (Heavy 8 to Good 4) track may prove difficult
AAP
Form useful. Sound effort without troubling winner at Ballarat over this distance. Hard fit, warrants attention.
ILB
In the money when 2nd last run at Ballarat. Will need everything to go right.
RP
Appears to be on the upgrade judged on two most recent runs; second of ten when sent off 18-1 at Ballarat last Monday; been struggling to get his head in front recently so easy to oppose.
RSIS
Tidy run when 2nd last time at Ballarat.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Current SR
Negative
Rider’s recent POT is returning 54% lower than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 6%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -36% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 55%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Beyond midfield, under pump turn and plugged home in soft going at Sale at second start. Added journey should assist. Big show.
ILB
Jumped at $18.00 and ran 7th last time at Sale. Possesses very good finishing speed. Betting is the best guide.
RP
Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Sale (beaten 3l) over 7f (maiden) last month; looks likely to go well.
RSIS
Odds of 17/1 and ran 7th last run at Sale. Has a great burst of pace late. Watch the betting.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
88
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick Kensington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1479m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -39% POT in their L100 Races
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Well back and made limited headway at Kyneton at his second race start. Looks a serious player.
ILB
Jumped at $8.00 and picked up some ground to run 4th last run at Kyneton. Competitive type.
RP
Fair effort when beaten 4½l, finishing fourth of eight over 7½f at Kyneton (maiden) last month; should prove competitive.
RSIS
Odds of 7/1 and inched into 4th last run at Kyneton. Expected to be flashing home. Has claims.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Onpace
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 24% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Catherine Hutchinson in good form, out performing market 28%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Honest performance without menacing winner at Berrigan off spell. This is more demanding.
ILB
Honest race when 2nd last start at Berrigan.
RP
Stepped up on her last two starts; far more competitive (Berrigan) last month when a respectable runner-up.
Career
8: 0-0-1
Rating · IRD
73
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-0
Track Leeton
1: 0-0-0
Track Swan Hill
2: 0-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1409m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 0-0-1
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -25%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Wide Draw
Negative
Likely to get caught wide
Increased Dist
Positive
Distance rise from last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature
AAP
Dropped out to last and never sighted at Kyneton second-up. Locally trained but has an adverse draw. Others with greater appeal.
ILB
Started at $151.00 and lost ground in the run home when 10th last run at Kyneton but coming back up in distance. Yet to break maiden status after 8 starts. Would rather look at others.
RP
Finished last of ten at Kyneton over 6f (maiden) last month; recent form nothing to write home about; a lot on her plate here and only limited appeal.
RSIS
Started 150/1 and faded to finish 10th last start at Kyneton but back to more ground. Hasn't broken through maiden grade after 8 runs. Likely to get back.
Career
9: 0-1-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1600m
2: 0-0-0
Going Good
5: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
3: 0-1-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 51% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 3%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Nadia Daniels 68% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are winning 29% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 61%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 63% Profit on Turnover
Key Jockey
Positive
Nadia Daniels winning at 50% POT in last 100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
AAP
Unable to threaten in the small field at Mornington. Looks more a place prospect.
ILB
Struggled with the pace when 6th last time at Mornington. Should race on the speed. Knockout chance.
RP
Beaten 6l in sixth at Mornington 11 days ago; recent form is unremarkable and yet to win after nine starts; this is competitive and others have more pressing claims.
RSIS
Couldn't maintain the pace when 6th last start at Mornington. Likely to be well placed early.
Career
2: 0-0-0
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1225m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 25% in Last 100 Rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 16%
Needs To Imp
Negative
Finished towards the tail last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Finished down the track in both runs. Gets blinkers again and is a blowout hope.
ILB
Odds of $101.00 and moderate showing when 9th last run at Ballarat. Might be ridden for luck. Hard to have.
RP
Finished ninth, beaten 18l, over 7f at Ballarat (maiden) last month; hard enough to fancy.
RSIS
Started 100/1 and below par performance when 9th last start at Ballarat. Does take a while to get into stride.