Seymour (VIC) horses tips & previews

15 Nov, 2:44 am AEDT

One race at a time: field, form guide and win/place odds for Seymour (VIC), with capture times on every price.

Meeting — Thu 12 Nov, 11:00 am AEDT

Meetings · Thu, 12 NovSeymour (VIC)Change

Race 3 — Kelly's Country Homes Mdn Plate 1411m · jumps Thu 12 Nov, 4:00 pm AEDT

Race preview

Kelly's Country Homes Mdn Plate: where the value sits at Seymour on a fine day over the 1411m trip for three-year-old maidens on a good four surface. The win market order has Carnevale sitting right at the head of affairs, closely followed by Tale Of Genji, Ciphered, and Power Of The Moon rounding out the early fancies in this tricky maiden assignment set to jump at 4:00 pm AEDT.

Carnevale opens as the shortest runner for the stable of Ben, Will and Jd Hayes with Michael Dee taking the mount from barrier four, bringing solid form including a sound second at Swan Hill over 1200m where the runner kept coming and the extra journey here should assist. Tale Of Genji sits next in the market order from barrier nine for C W McDonald and Beau Mertens, coming off a promising debut third at Moe over 1200m displaying the fastest overall finishing sectionals last start, while Ciphered is another major player from barrier two for Gavin Bedggood and Jett Stanley off a solid third at Kyneton.

The bold play could well rest with those stepping up in trip or handling the speed map dynamics where Ciphered maps as the leader, while runners like Carnevale and Little Gangster push forward on-pace. Tale Of Genji brings that sharp finishing sectionals profile from Moe which points to an advantage as the race unfolds over the 1411m journey, giving punters looking for overs plenty of angles to weigh up against the shorter-priced runners.

Race notes

3Y MDN-SW,3yo,Maiden
GOOD4
Fine
11 runners

Shortest win price

Carnevale (2)

1.60

Speed map

Back left · leaders right

Backmarker

7Belle Fille

Offpace

1Aquafy
12Tale Of Genji

Onpace

5Little Gangster
10Nerves Of Steel
2Carnevale

Firststart

4Exultant
6Power Of The Moon
8Five Roses
11Stormin' Angel

Leader

3Ciphered

Aquafy · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 67%
Carnevale · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Ciphered · Positive
Hot J/T Combo
Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%
Exultant · Negative
Market Watch
Keep eye on betting moves

No.RunnerBarWgtLast 5WinPlace

1AquafyJ: Teodore Nugent·T: Simon Zahra858kg1 11: 0-0-0$91.00$7.50

Career

1: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

11Wangaratta1300m26 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD410.5L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 67%
Hot Trainer
Positive
Simon Zahra in good form, out performing market 65%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 44% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 29%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Imprv Needed
Negative
Would need to lift here to feature

Comments

AAP

Had a low-key debut at Wangaratta 26 Oct. Better for it. Place hope only.

ILB

At $13.00 weakened under pressure when 11th last run at Wangaratta but having second race start. Looking elsewhere today.

Beaten 11l when 11th on his debut at Wangaratta two weeks ago; has a bit to find with Nerves Of Steel (seventh) on that running; could improve although needs to.

RSIS

Started 12/1 and didn't attack the line when 11th last run at Wangaratta but fitter for debut run.

2CarnevaleJ: Michael Dee·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes458kg4 7 2 3 24: 0-1-1$1.60$1.06

Career

4: 0-1-1

Rating · IRD

100

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo80%
Early Speed20%
Rating100%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
3: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-1-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 0-0-1

Last starts

2Swan Hill1200m27 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD40.5L
3Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT55L
2Caulfield Heath800m1 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · SOFT(5)1.5L
7Caulfield1200m30 May 2026 · 2Y HCP · HEAVY85.5L
4Flemington1000m4 Nov 2025 · 2yo · SOFT54.1L

Insights

Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Kept coming at Swan Hill and there have been winners come out of that race. Added journey should assist. Has a big say here.

ILB

Finished with intent when 2nd last start at Swan Hill and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Has not missed the placings this campaign in 2 attempts. Stamps its reason for consideration.

Went down by half a length at Swan Hill over 6f (maiden) two weeks ago; has to prove this longer trip is what he wants and unlikely to trouble the principals.

RSIS

Was strong late when 2nd beaten by 1/2L last time at Swan Hill and on an upward trajectory in recent races. Nice enough type to be supported.

3CipheredJ: Jett Stanley·T: Gavin Bedggood258kg3 7 32: 0-0-1$8.50$2.15

Career

2: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Leader

BackLead

Figures

Jockey80%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed100%
Rating60%
Closing Speed80%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Pakenham
1: 0-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1218m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

3Kyneton1218m20 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD33.4L
7Pakenham1200m8 May 2026 · MDN-SW · HEAVY810.7L
3Caulfield Heath850m23 Apr 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)1.5L

Insights

Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 97%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 39% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Odds of $6 when made the frame at Kyneton 20 Oct. Danger.

ILB

Good effort to run 3rd beaten by nearly 3 1/2L last run at Kyneton and can find a nice position from the draw. Likely to be well placed early. Could be in the mix.

Respectable effort to finish third over 6f at Kyneton (maiden) last month.

RSIS

Ran on strongly when 3rd beaten by almost 3 1/2L last start at Kyneton and has a good draw. Should muster plenty of early pace. Not at all out of this race.

4ExultantJ: Lachlan Neindorf·T: M Price & M Kent Jnr658kg–$23.00$3.70

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

$80k NZB Karaka yearling. Out of a sister to champion More Joyous. Hasn't impressed at the jumpouts but commends respect on breeding.

ILB

Debutant 3yo by Turn Me Loose for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr). Follow the money.

New Zealander bred; related to Yorokobi, winning form over 7f-1m2f; represents a stable with a strong record here with newcomers; strong contender as some good aspects to his profile.

RSIS

Racing as a debutant 3yo by Turn Me Loose for Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr).

5Little GangsterJ: Luke Nolen·T: Shawn Mathrick758kg11 3 8 6 65: 0-0-1$61.00$5.50

Career

5: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo20%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed60%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track Mildura
2: 0-0-1
Track Echuca
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1008m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

6Warrnambool1000m29 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN SW · GOOD49.15L
6Echuca1000m19 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · GOOD45.31L
8Mildura1200m6 Oct 2026 · 3yo+ · GOOD48.15L
3Mildura1008m5 Sept 2026 · 3yo+ · SOFT61.1L
11Sandown1000m11 Mar 2026 · 2Y HCP · GOOD413.8L

Insights

Jockey Booking
Negative
Luke Nolen current POT is 54% below Career Avg.
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -100% POT in their L100 Races
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 63% in L100 rides
Primed
Positive
Fitter here racing on a quick back up
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten (wide barrier) at Warrnambool at longer odds. Fringe place hope at best.

ILB

Backing up quickly. At $61.00 finished 5th last start at Mornington but racing over extra ground. Should jump out and bowl along. Has ability but this is challenging.

Was held in fifth over 5f at Mornington (maiden) on Tuesday; some promise; closest he has come to winning after six starts was a third; Luke Nolen a notable booking; others appeal more as running in what looks to be a hot race.

RSIS

Backs up quickly. At 60/1 came in 5th last run at Mornington but facing a rise in trip. Shows good early pace.

6Power Of The MoonJ: Declan Bates·T: Archie Alexander1158kg6$6.50$1.80

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer80%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Last starts

6Colac800m22 Oct 2026 · Barrier Trial · GOOD(4)4L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -22% POT in their L100 Races
Market Watch
Negative
Keep eye on betting moves

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). Full brother to city winner and stakes performed Somewhere. Nice second in latest Mortlake jumpout. This trip looks perfect for his debut.

ILB

3yo by Puissance De Lune having first race appearance for trainer Archie Alexander. Watch betting.

Already a gelding; first start under rules for this son of Puissance de Lune; faces fairly tall order so easy enough to oppose.

RSIS

Archie Alexander 3yo by Puissance De Lune having first race start.

7Belle FilleJ: Lachlan King·T: Claire Patterson156kg8 82: 0-0-0$81.00$7.50

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Backmarker

BackLead

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating40%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Sale
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1213m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

8Mornington1200m1 Nov 2026 · 3YF MDN-SW · GOOD48.5L
8Sale1213m9 July 2026 · 2Y MDN-SW · HEAVY96.8L

Insights

Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 42% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 25%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Lachlan King in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 53%
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Failed to threaten at Mornington at second appearance at healthy odds. Really needs to raise her game.

ILB

At $21.00 folded up in the straight when 8th last run at Mornington but drawn well. Might be ridden for luck. Rough hope.

Missed the frame (beaten 9l into eighth) over 6f at Mornington (maiden) 11 days ago; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Started 20/1 and tailed off to finish 8th last start at Mornington but drawn the rails. Likely to get back in the field.

8Five RosesJ: Luke Currie·T: Ben, Will & Jd Hayes556kg–$21.00$3.70

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 26% POT in L100 Runners
Still Learning
Negative
No race experience
Winkers On
Positive
Important gear change of winkers on

Comments

AAP

$60k NZB Karaka yearling. Half to four time winner Macedon Rose. Fifth in latest jumpout and looks a suitable trip to kickoff career.

ILB

Will Ben & Jd Hayes trained 3yo by Fierce Impact having first race start. Keep your eye on the market.

Trainer does well here with debutants; has to be taken seriously as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

3yo by Fierce Impact having first race appearance for Will Ben & Jd Hayes.

9LoyaltyScratched11––––

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey20%
Trainer40%
Jockey/Trainer Combo60%
Early Speed50%
Rating50%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 9%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 30%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 44% Profit on Turnover
Debutant
Positive
First race day appearance

Comments

AAP

First named foal out of an unraced mare. Fourth in two recent Cranbourne jumpout. Sticky gate but in leading camp.

ILB

On a quick back up. Was $13.00 and struggled when 6th last run at Ballarat but was on debut last time.

Trainer does well here with debutants; nicely bred (by Kingman); rates a likely contender; was entered at Ballarat Wednesday.

RSIS

On a short turnaround. Was 12/1 and appeared lacklustre when 6th last run at Ballarat but having second career run.

10Nerves Of SteelJ: Ryan Houston·T: Simon Zahra356kg13 72: 0-0-0$61.00$6.00

Career

2: 0-0-0

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Onpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey60%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo40%
Early Speed100%
Rating20%
Closing Speed40%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Seymour
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Wangaratta
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0

Last starts

7Wangaratta1300m26 Oct 2026 · 3UP MDN-SW · GOOD44.2L
13Seymour1200m11 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN-SW · SOFT520.65L

Insights

Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Hot Trainer
Positive
Simon Zahra in good form, out performing market 65%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 44% POT in L100 Runners
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Finished well held at Wangaratta at her second race start. Better for race experience and open to progression.

ILB

Jumped at $101.00 and lost ground in the run home when 7th last run at Wangaratta. Has early speed and positions nicely. Highly unlikely to feature here.

Didn't run too badly when out of the frame at Wangaratta (beaten just over 4l) over 6½f (maiden) two weeks ago; may have to settle for supporting role.

RSIS

Was 100/1 and gave away some ground when 7th last run at Wangaratta. Will be pushing for a forward position early.

11Stormin' AngelJ: Patrick Moloney·T: Ben Brisbourne1056kg–$71.00$7.00

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Firststart

Figures

Jockey100%
Trainer60%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed50%
Rating40%
Closing Speed50%

Insights

Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 26% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 23%
Watch Betting
Negative
If supported, follow in

Comments

AAP

Trials (1:0-0-0). $16k purchase. Out of an unraced mare. Third in recent Wodonga jumpout. Leaning to others.

ILB

Initial race appearance 3yo by Harry Angel for Ben Brisbourne. Betting as a guide.

First race for the daughter of Harry Angel; sire capable of getting smart offspring; interesting as some good aspects to her profile.

RSIS

Ben Brisbourne 3yo by Harry Angel on debut.

12Tale Of GenjiJ: Beau Mertens·T: C W Mcdonald956kg31: 0-0-1$5.00$1.55

Career

1: 0-0-1

Rating · IRD

Speed map

Offpace

BackLead

Figures

Jockey40%
Trainer100%
Jockey/Trainer Combo100%
Early Speed20%
Rating60%
Closing Speed100%

Record

First-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Moe
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
1: 0-0-1

Last starts

3Moe1200m18 Oct 2026 · 3Y MDN · GOOD31L

Insights

Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 7% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Raceday Experience
Positive
Wiser for debut run
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company

Comments

AAP

Wasn't all that far from the action on debut at Moe as an odds drifter 18 Oct. Took valuable lessons and rise in distance should help. Capable of making an impact.

ILB

Ran on when 3rd beaten by 1L last start at Moe and having second career run. Commands respect.

Didn't run too badly on her debut (Moe, 6f) at 11-1 last month; could improve but still hard to see her winning here.

RSIS

Showed a good turn of foot when 3rd last start at Moe and was a debutant last start. Should go close.

Odds correct as at Thu 12 Nov, 4:10 pm AEDT. Odds can change.

Past meetings

Sun 11 Oct, 11:00 am AEDT · 10 races
Thu 10 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · 8 races