Shortest win price
Fundamental Nature (4)
1.90
Your Safety Factory (Bm88) heads to Sandown over 1400m on a Heavy8 track with showers about, setting up a testing assignment for this Benchmark 88 field. The win market opens with Fundamental Nature sitting shortest, followed closely by Porter, Ferivia, and El Rocko, while Grid Girl, Oak Beach, and Impulsive Reaction round out the order further down. The conditions demand a runner that can handle some give in the ground, and the top end of the market features several seasoned contenders ready to assert themselves early.
Looking at the form behind those shorter prices, Fundamental Nature comes in off a sharp BM90 win at Flemington over this exact 1400m journey for trainer C Maher and jockey Ethan Brown, where it sat midfield and mowed them down late on a good surface. Porter is another key player with genuine claims from barrier 7, having shown plenty of toughness to score over 1440m at Caulfield two starts back under Damian Lane before a four-week freshen-up. El Rocko lines up from barrier 5 with Jamie Mott in the saddle for John Mcardle, stepping back to 1400m after failing to finish it off over 1600m in the Sale Cup on a heavy track.
Digging deeper into the race dynamics, the speed map indicates El Rocko and Porter should roll forward to share the early lead, giving them every chance to dictate terms if they handle the Heavy8 conditions. Meanwhile, runners like Ferivia will spot a start from the backmarker division, though its recent Flemington effort suggests it might be better suited to exotic placings. With a mix of proven 1400m performers and tactical speed up front, the bold play rests on whether the leaders can sustain their momentum or if a mid-field grinder can pick them off late.
Shortest win price
Fundamental Nature (4)
1.90
Most career wins
El Rocko
9-9-6 from 70 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
El Rocko · Positive
Maps Well
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Grid Girl · Negative
Rider
Negative rider change today
Fundamental Nature · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Porter · Negative
Trainer Career
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Career
70: 9-9-6
Rating · IRD
98
Speed map
Leader
First-up
8: 1-1-0
Second-up
7: 1-1-0
Third-up
7: 0-2-0
Fourth-up
6: 0-3-0
Track Caulfield
19: 3-5-1
Track Ballarat
2: 2-0-0
Track Pakenham
3: 1-0-1
Distance 2040m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1205m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
33: 4-4-4
Going Soft
35: 7-6-3
Going Good
28: 0-2-3
Going Heavy
7: 2-1-0
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Up In Weight
Negative
Goes up 6.5kg weight here
AAP
Seasoned performer. Didn't finish it off over 1600m Sale Cup at Sale. Switching to 1400m. Not out of this.
ILB
Started at $3.80 and didn't attack the line when 5th last run at Sale on a heavy track. Happy to forgive that run and competing in a less challenging grade. Should go close.
RP
A course winner; held in fifth last month at Sale in a Listed handicap; dropping in class but not hard to turn elsewhere.
RSIS
Started at 11/4 and didn't attack the line when 5th last run at Sale on a heavy track. Has the ability to turn things around. Major player who should go very close.
Career
24: 6-2-4
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
5: 2-0-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 3-0-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-0-0
Track Ballarat
1: 1-0-0
Track Pakenham
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
7: 1-1-1
Distance 1550m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
17: 4-2-3
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
5: 1-0-1
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Gave ground LS
Negative
Faded towards the finish last time out
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (19-weeks). Has a good first up record. Recent 3rd at the jump-outs. Drawn more favourably. Right in the mix fresh.
ILB
Resuming after a spell. Started $12.00 and faded away to finish 8th last start at Flemington but will try to take advantage of the alley. Can't leave out of your calculations.
RP
Beaten 7l when eighth of ten (Flemington) four months ago; a previous winner here; a few rivals look in good form so can be taken on.
RSIS
First run back from a break. Started 11/1 and lost ground in the run home when 8th last start at Flemington but drawn nicely.
Career
22: 6-3-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 1-2-0
Second-up
5: 1-0-0
Third-up
4: 3-0-0
Fourth-up
4: 1-0-1
Track Pakenham
2: 2-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
5: 0-1-1
Distance 1206m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
10: 3-0-0
Distance 1500m
3: 1-1-1
Going Good
14: 4-3-1
Going Heavy
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-0-0
Winkers Off
Positive
Winkers coming off this start
AAP
First-up (18-weeks). Usually around the mark first-up. 4th & 2nd at latest jump-outs. Can make his presence felt fresh.
ILB
Back from a break. Started $12.00 and ran 6th last run at Caulfield but back in an easier grade. Luke Cartwright is very comfortable aboard but rising in weight.
RP
A previous winner here; fair effort at Caulfield in July; more than capable if on song so could be thereabouts.
RSIS
Resuming after break. Started at 11/1 and finished 6th last time at Caulfield but lining up against easier rivals. Luke Cartwright has a high strike rate on board.
Career
9: 4-0-2
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 2-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
3: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
7: 3-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 16% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Ethan Brown 31% above market expected in L100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Key Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown winning at 17% POT in last 100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
AAP
Reliable type who seldom disappoints. On a tight rein and mowed them down late in (Bm90) at Flemington over this journey. Looks well placed to run another big race.
ILB
Bold effort when winning last time at Flemington and form has been improving over recent runs. 1 win from 2 starts have been on soft going. Going well this preparation. Worth strong consideration.
RP
Gained narrow success in a handicap at Flemington last week; should go well.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last run at Flemington and displaying improvement over the past few runs. Prefers the sting out of the ground with 1 win from 2 attempts. Worth strong consideration.
Career
33: 7-8-4
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Leader
First-up
6: 0-1-0
Second-up
5: 2-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-2
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-1
Track Seymour
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
9: 1-2-1
Track Tatura
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1440m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1450m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1543m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
26: 7-5-4
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
6: 0-2-0
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -25% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 44%
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 7%
Fast Early
Positive
Sectionals suggest goes hard early
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Weight Drop
Positive
Drops 5kg from LS run
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. All his toughness on show when overcame the wide draw at Caulfield. Outer barrier but has good gate speed. Commands attention here.
ILB
Displayed a good turn of foot when winning last start at Caulfield but rising in grade. Should come to hand quickly. Showing good ability this preparation. Watch for a sign in the market.
RP
Narrow scorer in a handicap at Caulfield four weeks ago; track has proven suitable before; hard enough to fancy despite that win last time.
RSIS
Was eating up the ground late when winning last time at Caulfield but competing in a more challenging grade. Should come to hand quickly. Will appreciate the drop in weight. Betting is the best guide.
Career
5: 2-1-0
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Morphettville
2: 1-0-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 0-1-0
Track Cranbourne
2: 1-0-0
Distance 2060m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 2518m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-0
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Trainer SR
Negative
T & N Busuttin & Young striking at just 6%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 50%
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Back in Dist
Negative
Dropping back to a less suitable distance range
1st Up
Negative
May need this run
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Second campaign (28-weeks). Won the Chairman's Stakes at Morphettville in his maiden campaign. Unplaced at recent jump-outs. May need it longer but could run well fresh.
ILB
First up from a break of 28 weeks and narrowly denied victory first up last preparation at Warrnambool. Likely to get back in the field. Place claims at best.
RP
Out of the money and beaten 5½l in the South Australian Derby at Morphettville upped to 1m4½f in May; big player as would have leading chance if back in the same form he showed when winning two starts ago and dropping in class.
RSIS
Resuming and just missed resuming last preparation at Warrnambool. Will be giving the leaders a big start. Matched against less formidable competition. Good career start.
Career
13: 3-1-1
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 0-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
2: 1-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1400m
3: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-1-0
Going Good
7: 1-0-0
Going Soft
6: 2-1-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Lachlan Neindorf current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Trainer SR
Negative
Phillip & Tommy Stokes striking at just 8%
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are under performing market expectations by -37%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 36%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 56% in L100 rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Last assignment this trip when ran on okay without troubling at Flemington. Usually gets back. Could add some value to exotics.
ILB
Got going late when 5th last start at Flemington. Lachlan Neindorf is a bonus. Has a great burst of speed late. Watch the betting.
RP
Creditable fifth, beaten just under 3l, of 12 when behind the reopposing Fundamental Nature (Flemington) last week; winning form over C&D; should go close if reproducing most recent effort.
RSIS
Passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last time at Flemington. Lachlan Neindorf is a bonus. Will be trying to topple them late. Respect the betting.
Career
11: 2-4-2
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
2: 1-0-0
Third-up
2: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Leopardstown
1: 0-1-0
Track Naas
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield Heath
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1408m
3: 1-1-1
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
3: 1-0-1
Going Good
7: 1-4-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 68%
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 49%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 32% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Early Sectionals
Negative
Recent sectional data suggests slow early pace
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (59-days). Battled home okay at Caulfield Heath. Rising in grade. Leaning towards others here.
ILB
Freshened for this. Odds of $20.00 and tailed off when 7th last run at Caulfield Heath but suited by the weight drop. Competing in a higher grade.
RP
Not beaten that far over 7½f at Caulfield (handicap) two months ago; easy to oppose.
RSIS
Let up. At 19/1 lacked competitiveness when 7th last run at Caulfield Heath and matched against a stronger field. Gets a reduction in weight.
Career
13: 4-2-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
4: 0-1-0
Second-up
3: 1-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-1-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-1-0
Track Moe
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1800m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2000m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
6: 3-0-0
Going Soft
7: 1-2-1
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Dist Drop
Negative
Distance decrease from last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Resuming
Negative
Poor strike rate when first up
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Resuming (21-weeks). There or thereabouts in last campaign. Placed at Sandown-Lakeside first-up last time in. 3rd in a recent jump-out. Keep safe at return.
ILB
Resuming after break. Gave nothing else a chance when winning by 3 1/2L last time at Caulfield Heath and drawn the rails. First start for a new trainer. Pass at this stage.
RP
Proven that she knows how to get her head in front (seeking a fifth career win); won with something to spare at Caulfield over 1m1f (handicap) five months ago; first run for trainer; despite that Caulfield success, not easy to fancy.
RSIS
Resuming. Ran away with a win by a margin of 3 1/2L last time at Caulfield Heath and drawn well. Coming to a new trainer. Matched against tougher rivals.