Shortest win price
Natural Fling (2)
3.50
Welcome to our bold preview for the Move To Strike Thoroughbred Club Stakes at Sandown, where the track is currently rated a Soft 7 under showery skies over the 1200m course. Looking at the early win market order, Natural Fling heads the betting as the shortest runner, closely followed by Aroused, Affari, and Sequinned in the market structure. This Group 3 assignment for three-year-old fillies brings together a fascinating mix of proven performers and progressive types where the value sits with those who can handle the conditions and map economically from their respective barriers.
Taking a closer look at the form behind those shorter prices, Natural Fling brings strong credentials after being terrific in the Danehill Stakes at Flemington two back, though the stable's recent run remains a watchpoint. Aroused showed plenty of merit going close in a thrilling finish down the Flemington straight over this distance on October 24 following an impressive debut win at Ballarat. Sequinned also commands respect in this field, having taken out the 3YF Plate at Caulfield before just missing in a crackerjack finish in the Red Roses Stakes at Flemington, displaying form that completely suits this trip.
Further down the race profile, Affari comes out of a solid third in the Group 3 Vanity at Flemington after finishing with a full head of steam from a wide draw, while Semantics maps as a leader with early speed which could prove an advantage on this circuit. With speed runners like Semantics and Aroused drawn to pressure the race upfront, the bold play involves leaning toward runners who can stalk the speed and finish off hard when it matters most in testing ground.
Shortest win price
Natural Fling (2)
3.50
Most career wins
Sequinned
3-1-0 from 7 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Offmidfield
Midfield
Offpace
Onpace
Leader
Natural Fling · Negative
Trainer Recent
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Lady Catalina · Negative
Trainer SR
Ciaron Maher striking at just 8%
Rubi's Choice · Negative
Jockey Booking
Lachlan Neindorf current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Calamari Ring · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
Improved L/S
Positive
Improved again last start
AAP
Outsprinted but determined in defeat down the Flemington straight 24 Oct. Can make her presence felt.
ILB
Zipped home into 3rd beaten by 1/2L last start at Flemington.
RSIS
Did well to finish 3rd beaten by 1/2L last time at Flemington.
Career
6: 2-2-1
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
2: 2-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-1
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-1-0
Track Gold Coast
1: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
2: 2-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1100m
3: 2-1-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-1-0
Going Soft
4: 2-1-1
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 50%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Terrific in the Danehill Stakes Flemington two back. Sent forward but flat-footed when things got serious in G1 Coolmore at Flemington last start. Look for her to hit back hard here.
ILB
Jumped at $7.00 and faded to finish 9th last start at Flemington. Happy to overlook that run and competing in an easier class. Should race on the speed. Will attract plenty of interest.
RP
Finished ninth of 13 in the Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington 14 days ago; this is a step down in class; has won in classy company before and ought to be of interest.
RSIS
Started at 6/1 and didn't threaten when 9th last start at Flemington. Should improve and going down in class. Will be pushing for a forward position early. Should give plenty of sight.
Career
9: 2-1-1
Rating · IRD
76
Speed map
Onpace
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 0-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 1-0-0
Distance 900m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
5: 1-0-1
Going Good
7: 2-1-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Trainer SR
Negative
Ciaron Maher striking at just 8%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Led, held on desperately to win over Sequinned at Flemington last start. Not as well drawn this time. Shapes as a rough place prospect.
ILB
Took charge of the race to win by a nose last start at Flemington and demonstrating upward trajectory in recent races. Should be rolling forward early from the wide gate. Will need everything to go right.
RP
Sprang a 18-1 shock over 5½f at Flemington (Group 3) beating three of these rivals nine days ago; not hard to turn elsewhere despite the last time out success.
RSIS
Showed a clean pair of heels when winning by a margin of a nose last run at Flemington and form has been improving over recent runs.
Career
5: 1-0-0
Rating · IRD
71
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
4: 1-0-0
Distance 1440m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
4: 1-0-0
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Lachlan Neindorf current POT is 52% below Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 7%
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 39%
Rider Poor SR
Negative
Jockey underperforming market expectations by 56% in L100 rides
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Well Placed
Positive
Drops back to a suitable class
AAP
Now 4 weeks between runs. Went home tamely at Caulfield over longer assignment at $61. Coming back in distance. Others with stronger claims.
ILB
Odds of $61.00 and couldn't stay in touch when 8th last time at Caulfield but back in an easier grade. Will be facing a significant drop in distance. This looks a tough assignment.
RP
Out of the frame in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield, beaten 4½l last month; this represents an easier task than her previous race; could be interesting if replicating her best form.
RSIS
Odds of 60/1 and weakened to finish 8th last run at Caulfield but has been racing in stronger company. Will be facing a significant drop in distance.
Career
6: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
3: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
2: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
3: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 21% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Recent
Negative
Camp struggling with S/R just 8%
Key Rider
Positive
Blake Shinn 23% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer Recent
Negative
Stable runners are currently underperforming market by 38%
Trainer Form
Negative
Stable out of form, losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 23%
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
AAP
4 weeks since last run. Won the Inglis Banner Flemington 8 Nov 2025. Not disgraced on a soft deck at Randwick. One for your multi plays.
ILB
Started at $4.20 and tailed off to finish 6th last time at Randwick. Blake Shinn usually performs well for the Ciaron Maher stable. Prefers the sting out of the track. Could be in the mix.
RP
Has been consistent of late; far from disgraced (beaten just under 3l) over 7f at Randwick (Group 3) last month; hard to dismiss if duplicating the form of her most recent win.
RSIS
Odds of 10/3 and tailed off to finish 6th last time at Randwick. Jockey Blake Shinn and trainer Ciaron Maher are a strong team. Has very good closing pace. Betting is the best guide.
Career
3: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
80
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 1-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1203m
1: 1-0-0
Going Good
1: 1-0-0
Going Soft
2: 1-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 41% in Last 100 Rides
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 65%
Hot Jockey
Positive
Billy Egan in hot recent form, out performing market expectation by 48%
Consecutive Wins
Positive
Has strung together a few races in a row
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs
AAP
Knuckled down strongly from back half to salute in the William Crockett Stakes Open 1200m at Flemington. Among the chances again.
ILB
Reeled them in when winning last time at Flemington and good career start. Has hit top form this campaign with 2 wins from as many runs. Place claims at best.
RP
Scored by a slim margin in a Listed race at Flemington did so accounting for four of these rivals three weeks ago; has won two of her three career starts and going for a hat-trick; this represents a step up in class but warrants plenty of respect.
RSIS
Finished well when winning last run at Flemington and solid career start. Flying of late with 2 wins from as many runs.
Career
7: 1-1-2
Rating · IRD
79
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
5: 1-0-2
Track Rosehill
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
2: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
4: 0-0-1
Going Good
6: 1-1-2
Going Soft
1: 0-0-0
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Jockey Booking
Positive
Mark Zahra 27% above market expected in L100 Rides
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 20%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Not far off them in the small field at Randwick. Stripping fitter, can play a role.
ILB
Started at $2.05 and ran on into 4th last time at Randwick. Questions at this level.
RP
Favourite but out of the places when fourth in a Listed race at Randwick last month; has been fairly consistent lately; facing a tougher assignment than last time, is passed over.
RSIS
Started 21/20 and improved late to finish 4th last start at Randwick.
Career
7: 3-1-0
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-1-0
Track Warwick Farm
1: 1-0-0
Track Randwick
3: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
3: 1-1-0
Distance 1200m
2: 2-0-0
Going Good
6: 2-1-0
Going Soft
1: 1-0-0
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
In Form
Positive
Racing in top form recently
AAP
Took out the 3yo F Plate at Caulfield 10 Oct. Just missed in a crackerjack finish in the Red Roses Stakes at Flemington under heavy support. Form solid this distance. In the mix.
ILB
Just shy of the win last start at Flemington. Very competitive this campaign. Watch the betting.
RP
Just denied when favourite over 5½f at Flemington (Group 3) behind Lady Catalina a week ago.
RSIS
Just missed last time at Flemington. Watch for a sign in the market.
Career
8: 1-4-2
Rating · IRD
72
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
2: 0-1-1
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-1-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-1
Track Rosehill
2: 1-1-0
Track Canterbury
4: 0-3-1
Distance 1250m
2: 0-2-0
Distance 1400m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Soft
4: 1-2-1
Going Good
3: 0-2-1
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Jockey Booking
Negative
Less suitable jockey engaged
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -43% POT in their L100 Races
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 24%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Draw Suits
Positive
Well drawn inside
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Sent back (wide draw) and finished with a full head of steam in G3 Vanity last time at Flemington. Must be considered here.
ILB
Caught the eye when 3rd last start at Flemington and has drawn to do little work. Been in the money 6 from 6 attempts this campaign. Hard to recommend.
RP
Best form so far in last two starts and showing consistent form; produced an encouraging effort (third of 13, beaten just under 2l) over 7f at Flemington (Group 3) last month.
RSIS
Displayed good finishing pace when 3rd last run at Flemington and drawn well. Has run into the money 6 from 6 attempts recently.
Career
4: 2-0-0
Rating · IRD
83
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
3: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 1-0-0
Track Bendigo
1: 1-0-0
Track Caulfield
2: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
2: 0-0-0
Going Soft
2: 2-0-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer Career
Negative
Trainer Career S/R is 9%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Trainer ROI
Negative
Trainers runners currently losing 58% Profit on Turnover
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Raced in contention but lacked a late response at Flemington at first run back. Look for improvement here.
ILB
At $2.45 didn't threaten when 6th last time at Flemington. 2 wins from 2 starts have been on soft going. Not at all out of this race.
RP
Has made a pleasing start to her career with two wins from four starts; sixth behind Caddington at Flemington last month in a Listed race; may have to settle for supporting role as this looks tougher than last time.
RSIS
At 6/4 folded up in the straight when 6th last start at Flemington. Will relish the track conditions. Keep safe.
Career
10: 1-1-1
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Offmidfield
First-up
2: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Morphettville
1: 0-0-1
Track Caulfield
6: 1-1-0
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
3: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
7: 1-1-1
Going Soft
3: 0-0-0
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
AAP
Well back and never a factor at Flemington over this journey. Usually gets back. New to Sandown-Hillside. Others more persuasive.
ILB
Odds of $19.00 and weakened to finish 10th last start at Flemington but has a positive gate.
RP
Form has an up and down look to it; finished last, beaten 5½l by Caddington in a Listed race at Flemington last month; this demands more than last time so not one to rely on.
RSIS
Started at 18/1 and couldn't stay in touch when 10th last run at Flemington but will try to take advantage of the stall.
Career
4: 1-0-2
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Second-up
1: 0-0-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-1
Track Sandown
1: 0-0-1
Track CurrentTrack
1: 0-0-1
Track Ballarat
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1000m
3: 1-0-1
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Going Good
2: 0-0-1
Going Soft
2: 1-0-1
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Lightly Raced
Positive
Limited race experience but shown potential
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Consistent
Positive
Showing up at the business end
AAP
Broke maiden at Bendigo 4 Oct. Went close in thrilling finish under betting interest down the Flemington straight 5 Nov. Should relish the rise in distance. Can challenge again.
ILB
Missed by a narrow margin last run at Flemington and putting a tidy record together so far. Has shown early pace in races to date. Should go close.
RP
Missed out by a short head at Flemington over 5½f (Group 3) last week, a race won by the reopposing Lady Catalina.
RSIS
Competed in a tight contest last start at Flemington and promising career start. Has good tactical pace and will be nicely positioned. Definite contender.
Career
2: 1-1-0
Rating · IRD
85
Speed map
Leader
First-up
1: 1-0-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Track Ballarat
1: 1-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-1-0
Going Good
2: 1-1-0
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 11% in Last 100 Rides
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Impressive debut at Ballarat 30 Sep. Last assignment this trip when went close in thrilling finish down the Flemington straight 24 Oct. Looks a key contender again.
ILB
Close to claiming the win last start at Flemington and will try to take advantage of the barrier. Has plenty of early speed. Expecting a solid performance.
RP
Not beaten far in a Listed race at Flemington behind Caddington last month; faces a tougher assignment this time so can be taken on.
RSIS
Narrowly denied a win last start at Flemington and has a positive stall. Should muster plenty of early toe. Been in the placings each start of late. Definite claims for punters.
Career
4: 0-2-0
Rating · IRD
77
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
1: 0-1-0
Second-up
1: 0-1-0
Third-up
1: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
1: 0-0-0
Track Bairnsdale
1: 0-1-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Kilmore
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-1-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
4: 0-2-0
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Blinkers On
Positive
Trainer has opted for the Blinkers on, take note
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Not beaten far here two back over 1200m. Really good run coming from well back at Flemington. Can run into the money here.
ILB
Was $11.00 and close up last start at Flemington. Likely to settle back in the field. Will be tested in this.
RP
Good effort when beaten into fourth by a neck over 5½f at Flemington (Group 3) last Thursday.
RSIS
Odds of 10/1 and just missed last start at Flemington. Will be giving the leaders a big start.
Career
2: 1-0-1
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
2: 1-0-1
Track Ballarat
2: 1-0-1
Distance 1200m
2: 1-0-1
Going Good
2: 1-0-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -44% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 29%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 20%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Fresh
Positive
Freshened up. Had a break of 42-60 days
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Let-up (45-days). Out the back, closed with raking strides in the 3yo (Bm64) at Ballarat at second appearance. Has a tricky draw. Meets a deeper race.
ILB
Freshened for this. Finished amongst the placegetters when 3rd beaten by 3/4L last start at Ballarat but challenged by more formidable competitors. Gets back and needs luck. Difficult to warm to at present.
RP
Couldn't quite get the job done when 6-4 third in a handicap at Ballarat 45 days ago; faces a tougher assignment this time so not easy to fancy.
RSIS
Back from a freshen up. Finished well when 3rd last start at Ballarat but taking on stronger rivals. Prefers to settle towards the rear.