Shortest win price
Jimmysstar (1)
3.40
The Sportsbet Cf Orr Stakes brings a cracking Group 1 3UP WFA battle over 1400m at Sandown, where the track condition is listed as Soft 7 amidst looming showers. Looking at the win market order, Jimmysstar sits at the head of affairs, closely followed by Beiwacht, Pericles, Shadhavar, Splash Back, and War Machine rounding things out. Fortune favours the bold here, and the value sits with taking a strong stance against the absolute shortest runners where the market might have over-adjusted.
Jimmysstar comes in with multiple G1 credentials and a tidy 32-start career boasting 12 wins, though the C Maher stable is operating at a modest strike rate lately and he was plain enough when running seventh over 1300m at Randwick. Beiwacht is another heavily respected commodity from the C J Waller yard, coming off two solid thirds at Randwick over 1300m and 1500m where he was only run down late in the Golden Eagle. Meanwhile, Pericles brings a sharp turn of foot after taking out the Russell Balding Stakes at Randwick, pairing up with Craig Williams for Bjorn Baker in what shapes as a threatening middle-distance map campaign.
For those hunting further down the order, Shadhavar presents an intriguing angle for Tom Dabernig, seeking a hat-trick after dominating by big margins over 1400m at both Caulfield and Flemington. Drawing barrier 2 and mapping right on speed alongside Beiwacht, this progressive galloper might just give backers plenty of cheek at an appealing price. The bold play is to watch how the speed unfolds on this Soft 7 surface, keeping a close eye on those leaders who map well.
Shortest win price
Jimmysstar (1)
3.40
Most career wins
Jimmysstar
12-5-4 from 32 starts
Back left · leaders right
Backmarker
Midfield
Offpace
Leader
Jimmysstar · Positive
Jockey ROI
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Pericles · Positive
Fast Finisher
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
War Machine · Positive
Rider SR
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Beiwacht · Positive
Profitable Trainer
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Career
32: 12-5-4
Rating · IRD
100
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
8: 4-1-0
Second-up
6: 3-1-1
Third-up
6: 1-1-2
Fourth-up
5: 2-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
2: 0-2-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1600m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
2: 2-0-0
Going Good
18: 7-3-2
Going Soft
14: 5-2-2
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 16% in Last 100 Rides
Trainer SR
Negative
Ciaron Maher striking at just 8%
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 44%
Trainer A2E
Negative
Stable currently underperforming market expectation by 38%
Key Jockey
Positive
Ethan Brown winning at 17% POT in last 100 rides
Maps Poorly
Negative
Map position not suited at this track, under performing market expectations by 26%
Nice Barrier
Positive
Well drawn from gate 1
Blinkers Off
Positive
Blinkers coming off this start
AAP
Multiple G1 winner. Got back and ran home steadily last time out at Randwick. Drawn to get every chance. Key contender.
ILB
Jumped at $3.80 and finished 7th last run at Randwick. Looking past the last run and has minimal work to do from the alley. Up against a more competitive field. Solid claims.
RP
Finished seventh in the Russell Balding Stakes at Randwick when behind Pericles last month; achieved plenty of success against this sort of company and has proved himself a top performer; plenty of appeal if reproducing his best back form.
RSIS
Was 11/4 and finished 7th last run at Randwick. Should bounce back and has minimal work to do from the stall. Ethan Brown does know the horse very well. Solid claims.
Career
38: 9-7-6
Rating · IRD
84
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
9: 4-0-1
Second-up
8: 3-1-2
Third-up
8: 1-1-2
Fourth-up
5: 0-1-0
Track Caulfield
7: 1-1-2
Track Moonee Valley
2: 1-0-1
Track Sandown
2: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
2: 0-0-0
Distance 1400m
12: 5-2-1
Distance 1609m
1: 0-0-0
Going Good
25: 7-3-4
Going Heavy
6: 1-3-1
Going Soft
7: 1-1-1
Fast Finisher
Positive
Fastest Overall Finishing Sectionals Last Start
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 48%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Form At Track
Positive
1 time winner here at Sandown
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Terrific winning the The Russell Balding Stakes over 1300m at Randwick at $17. Each way claims.
ILB
Rounded them up to win last time at Randwick and proven performer at this trip in the past. Testing ability against stronger contenders. Respected competitor.
RP
Track has proven suitable before; gained narrow success in the Russell Balding Stakes at Randwick last month; should prove competitive.
RSIS
Charged home to win last start at Randwick and proven runner at this trip. Facing formidable competition. Very tidy performer.
Career
19: 6-2-2
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 4-0-1
Second-up
4: 1-0-1
Third-up
4: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 0-0-0
Track Doomben
1: 0-0-0
Track Flemington
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1000m
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1200m
9: 2-1-2
Distance 1400m
8: 3-1-0
Going Good
14: 5-2-2
Going Soft
5: 1-0-0
Hot J/T Combo
Positive
Combo are out performing market expectations by 43%
Trainer ROI
Positive
Runners from this stable currently going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Early Splits
Negative
Out of races with slow early tempos
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
AAP
Won the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield two back 19 Sep. Ran on late from the back in The Everest at Randwick. Makes strong appeal here.
ILB
Ran 8th last run at Randwick. Added confidence with Ben Melham doing the steering.
RP
Not far behind Jimmysstar when eighth (Randwick) four weeks ago; successful six times from 19 career runs and took the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes two months ago; makes limited appeal with several rivals in good nick.
RSIS
Ran 8th last time at Randwick. Jockey Ben Melham has been successful previously.
Career
21: 8-2-4
Rating · IRD
90
Speed map
Offpace
First-up
6: 2-2-2
Second-up
5: 2-0-1
Third-up
5: 3-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-0-0
Track Cranbourne
1: 1-0-0
Track Kyneton
1: 1-0-0
Track Eagle Farm
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1500m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
1: 0-0-1
Distance 1200m
6: 1-2-1
Going Soft
5: 1-0-2
Going Good
16: 7-2-2
Rider SR
Positive
Jockey recent POT is 22% better than Career Avg.
Cold J/T Combo
Negative
Combo are losing -24% POT in their L100 Races
Stable In Form
Positive
Stable going well. Out performing market by 29%
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Early Splits
Positive
Has early speed. An advantage on this circuit
Solid Run LS
Positive
Won last start
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Showed plenty of fight winning Harry White Stakes at Caulfield over this trip. Sterner test here but could run a race at odds.
ILB
Ran on strongly to win last run at Caulfield and ideal distance as proven previously. Has been a model of consistency since coming back from a break. Not dismissing.
RP
Scored narrowly in a Group 3 at Caulfield last month; has achieved eight wins from 21 career runs; one to note.
RSIS
Rounded them up to win last start at Caulfield and suited at this distance historically. Showing great form lately but matched against tougher rivals.
Career
17: 4-3-3
Rating · IRD
82
Speed map
Leader
First-up
4: 1-0-1
Second-up
3: 0-2-0
Third-up
3: 1-0-1
Fourth-up
3: 1-0-1
Track Flemington
2: 0-0-0
Track Rosehill
6: 2-1-1
Track Randwick
7: 1-2-2
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-1
Distance 1400m
3: 3-0-0
Distance 1500m
2: 0-0-1
Going Good
12: 3-2-1
Going Soft
5: 1-1-2
Profitable Trainer
Positive
Stable runners going at 8% POT in L100 Runners
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
AAP
Is a multiple G1 winner. Was fantastic last time in the Golden Eagle only being run down in the shadows by Skyhook at Randwick. Highly rated in this line-up.
ILB
Gave a strong sight when 3rd beaten by 1L last run at Randwick. Likely to be well placed early. In fine form since returning from a break. Strong competitor.
RP
Third over 7½f at Randwick in the Golden Eagle was a good effort last month; proven at the highest level and consistent lately; has to be considered.
RSIS
Was found wanting late when 3rd last run at Randwick. Has early pace and positions nicely. Looking sharp on the track since resuming from a break. Great chance.
Career
38: 8-5-4
Rating · IRD
20
Speed map
Midfield
First-up
6: 2-1-1
Second-up
5: 2-0-1
Third-up
5: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
3: 0-1-0
Track Mornington
1: 0-0-0
Track Randwick
1: 0-0-0
Track Caulfield
7: 0-1-0
Distance 1300m
2: 0-1-0
Distance 1400m
10: 0-1-1
Distance 1600m
9: 2-1-2
Going Good
26: 7-2-2
Going Heavy
1: 0-0-0
Going Soft
11: 1-3-2
Rider
Negative
Negative rider change today
Dist S/R
Negative
Poor performer at the distance
AAP
Midfield and battled away solidly at Flemington over this trip. Keener on others.
ILB
Came in 6th last start at Flemington and up against tougher competition. Luke Nolen is a key engagement.
RP
Creditable effort to finish sixth, beaten just under 3l (Flemington) two weeks ago upped to this trip in a Group 2; track has proven suitable before; slumped a bit since winning a Group 1 at Morphettville six months ago; this looks a decent race so others make more appeal.
RSIS
Ran 6th last time at Flemington and facing a stronger group of contenders. Luke Nolen takes the reins today.
Career
24: 9-2-2
Rating · IRD
78
Speed map
Backmarker
First-up
6: 3-0-1
Second-up
4: 2-0-1
Third-up
3: 0-0-0
Fourth-up
2: 0-0-0
Track Geelong
1: 0-0-1
Track Morphettville
2: 0-1-0
Track Warrnambool
1: 1-0-0
Distance 2019m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1200m
5: 2-0-0
Distance 1300m
2: 1-0-0
Going Good
18: 7-1-1
Going Heavy
2: 1-0-0
Going Soft
4: 1-1-1
Jockey ROI
Positive
Rider outperforming Career Avg POT by 11% in Last 100 Rides
Tricky Map
Negative
Runners with this map, underperform market by 9%
Ran On Hard LS
Positive
Ran on well last start
Track Exp
Positive
Knows this track well
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
AAP
Made late rally from the back in the McEwen behind Smooth Chino at Flemington off spell. Will be fitter second-up and rise in trip a plus. Could give some cheek at odds.
ILB
Odds of $13.00 and chased well when 5th last start at Flemington but racing against tougher rivals. Will be motoring home late. A threat to the other main hopes.
RP
Has won here; creditable fifth over 6f at Flemington (Group 2) last month; this is competitive and not one to rely on.
RSIS
At 12/1 passed some rivals in the late stages when 5th last run at Flemington but up against a more competitive field. Should be swooping on the field late. Expecting a solid performance.
Career
19: 8-3-2
Rating · IRD
70
Speed map
Leader
First-up
5: 2-0-0
Second-up
4: 2-0-1
Third-up
3: 1-1-0
Fourth-up
2: 1-1-0
Track Murray Bridge
2: 1-1-0
Track Caulfield
12: 4-2-2
Track Flemington
1: 1-0-0
Distance 1000m
1: 0-0-0
Distance 1100m
6: 2-0-2
Distance 1200m
7: 3-1-0
Going Good
10: 6-1-1
Going Soft
9: 2-2-1
Maps Well
Positive
Map Position suited at this track, out performing market expectations by 9%
Margin LS
Positive
Won by a big margin last start
Drawn In
Positive
Suited drawn down low
Class Rise
Negative
Racing in stronger company
Good Form
Positive
Very competitive in recent runs
AAP
Racing in great heart. Looking for the hat=trick today. Won the HKJ Club Stakes in a cakewalk at Flemington last time. Tougher assignment here but should run well again.
ILB
Found another gear when winning by 4 1/4L last run at Flemington and have to respect the form at the trip. Keeping a perfect win record the last 2 starts. Very tidy performer.
RP
Seeking a hat-trick today but all her victories have been gained at a lower level; ready success in a Group 3 (Flemington) last week; form of the trainer is a plus; may have to settle for supporting role on first attempt at a big race.
RSIS
Spaced the field to win by 4 1/4L last time at Flemington and suited at this trip in the past. Keeping a perfect win record the last 2 starts. Serious contender.